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Iowa, which almost always votes democratic for president, will go Romney. MANY Obama voters in the state are very vocal about not voting for him again. His shine has worn off here. I would very much doubt that Obama will win Virginia as well.
So you live in Iowa and have a good "feel" for which way that state will go based on everyday experience in Iowa?
FL, NC, VA and 22 more electoral votes from OH (18), NH (4), IA (6), CO (9) and NV (6).
The raw probability of that is low single digits.
Your post is flawed.
If Romney wins FL, NC, and VA he would only need 21 EV to get to 269 where he holds the tie breaker. You forget that Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20) and Wisconsin (10) are also potentially in play. In fact most Michigan polls have had Obama's lead within the margin of error or with Romney up. Obama has nonstop ads running here, because it IS in play.
Romney does not have to win FL, NC, and VA.
In example, if Romney wins FL, NC, MI, OH he wins, even if he loses VA, IA, CO, NV, WI, PA and NH. Well, that would get him to 269 where the House with the Republican Advantage would break the tie.
Even if Obama's youth support were to diminish, arguably that's more than offset by the Ryan pick shifting the senior vote even further to the Obama side (and seniors are way more apt to vote)!
Obamacare cuts 700000 from Medicare they are nut as blind as you think
Plus Ryan's plan does not cut anything for people 55 and over. It allows younger workers an out and better system
Remember congressional elections are local and a lot of people don't vote straight tickets. For years NC voters always voted for a democratic governor and at the same time voted for the GOP presidential candidate. A tie in the presidential election would come down to one or two battleground states.
Q: What happens when the Presidential election is close?
A: Not much happens in the House
2004:
President Bush is re-elected fairly narrowly, 286-251, by 3% in the popular vote.
The GOP gains all of a seats in the House
2000:
President Bush is elected very narrowly, 271-266, though Gore carries the popular vote by less than 1%.
The Democrats gain a single seat in the House.
The current make-up of the House is 241-190, with 4 vacant seats. To capture the House, the Democrats would have to gain 23 seats, plus pick up all four vacancies. There is absolutely no way that happens if the Electoral College splits 269-269. If the Democrats were to make such House gains, it would be the canary in the coalmine signaling an Obama win with at least 350 EC votes.
Now, the House shakeout could conceivably deny the GOP a majority of delegations, but even that would be a very unlikely in the event of an electoral tie. The two scenarios -- an Electoral College tie, and the Democrats taking the House -- just don't go together. Either could conceivably happen, but not both. Not in 2012.
If Romney wins FL, NC, and VA he would only need 21 EV to get to 269 where he holds the tie breaker. You forget that Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20) and Wisconsin (10) are also potentially in play. In fact most Michigan polls have had Obama's lead within the margin of error or with Romney up. Obama has nonstop ads running here, because it IS in play.
Romney does not have to win FL, NC, and VA.
In example, if Romney wins FL, NC, MI, OH he wins, even if he loses VA, IA, CO, NV, WI, PA and NH. Well, that would get him to 269 where the House with the Republican Advantage would break the tie.
Tracking poll don't have MI, or PA within 5% points, which is the typical "in play" criteria. WI is up in the air with a little bit of a Ryan bounce anticipated, but Romney still trails.
Romney is behind in FL, NC, MI, OH. His odds of winning all four are 5% or less. That's just the raw statistics never mind that he's a terrible campaigner and people just don't like him.
It's a bit complicated, but the general idea is to get the Koch brothers to waste several millions.
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