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Minnesota has a Voter ID referendum. It is going to pass in a landslide apparently. I doubt Romney will win MN,but I do think it will be closer than expected. This is good news for Michelle Bachmann.
shows Ohio in a dead heat, 49%/49%, with 1% still undecided. And believe me, it kills the Blade to have to report this, as they are somewhere left of San Francisco in their idealogy.
They even admitted that college educated people are likely to vote for Romney and those who "didn't finish high school" are likely to vote for Obama, which flies in the face of the smug liberals who don't want to admit that a large part of their party's base is people who know little or nothing about the facts, they just know where the easiest handouts can be had.
It might say something when over 12,000 Ohioans turn out in a high school football stadium in cornfield country on a weeknight to support Romney.
this is my current forecast. i will update it daily at the end of the day (after we see all the state polls for the day) this is my current forecast for 10/27.
Good point, no land line here either now for several years, and with feature-rich smart phones and cheap unlimited plans, it doesn't even make sense anymore. Anachronistic technology for a regressive party... it kinda fits!
Analysis: Ohio remains close, with numbers all over the place, but we have yet to see a poll with Romney leading. No methodology in the Ohio poll. Romney is getting closer in MN, I now see both campaigns on the air. Romney cannot win with Hennepin and Ramsey going 57 35 Obama though and a win is highly unlikely. This poll also had a 80:20 landline to cell phone ratio which makes me skeptical. Party affiliation was 38 Democrat, 33 Republican, 29 Other. There is no list of registered voters by party made available to make a comparison of registered voters to the affiliation in that specific poll.
Wow, Gallup tracking poll has Romney back up by 5 points. After the initial bounce that had Romney up by 6, he slipped to +3 the past couple days and now back up to +5.
That may well be, but the simple facts are that unlike many of the national polls, a lot of the state polls rely on robocall interviews (instead of personal interviews), and the MN polls are usually done by the Minneapolis Star Tribune, which always describes their polling as consisting of 800 calls of which 80% are landlines and 20% are cellphones.
Which right off the bat is heavily weighted towards landline users who tend to be more Republican, and disproportionately ignores the fact that cellphone-only households now account for at least 30% of the population (and are mostly Democratic). That and the Star Tribune says they don't factor in the non-responders (of which cellphone folks are notorious for doing)!
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New Toledo Blade Poll...
