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“It’s over. I don’t have anything else to say. It’s over… If I was looking at those numbers and I was managing a presidential campaign I would be upset. But if those numbers are correct – It is over. It is over.”
But [Frank Newport, Gallup's editor-in-chief] was cautious in interpreting his numbers. Gallup’s poll cheered Romney supporters because it showed Romney gaining ground even after the second debate. But Newport didn’t see it like that. Remember, he warned, it’s a seven-day poll. “I think we’re still seeing leftover positive support for Romney and I don’t think we’re seeing impact yet from the second debate,” he says.
When the man in charge of the poll speculates that he's recording a temporary outlier result, it's probably a temporary outlier result. Moreover, given that the poll puts Obama up by greater than the MOE in every region except the South, even if accurate it simply means that this +7 margin will translate into votes squandered in perma-red states. At most, it means the possibility of an EC/popular vote split, which most supporters of Obama will welcome readily enough as karmic justice for 2000:
Quote:
If Gallup is right, then that looks to me like we’re headed for an electoral college/popular vote split. Last night, I spoke with Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of Gallup, to ask him if I was missing something. He said I wasn’t. “That’s certainly what it looks like,” he says.
And btw, there's a perfectly good thread right at the top of the page for this kind of poll-driven speculation.
man you guys kill me. A month ago you're insisting the polls are skewed in favor of Obama, now you're cherry picking the one poll that shows a lead and insisting it is a sure fire indicator of a Romney presidency.
He said the same things on The Five yesterday. His first reaction 'It's over'. Then went on to say he would need to study the numbers but if they were correct then it was over.
Read yesterday that MSNBC was contemplating a scenario of a tie in electorals and what would happen. Commentary was that MSNBC is now considering the reality that the O'man may not win outright. Or wrong.
Or... sounds like media is starting to hear the music.
A Susquehanna poll of Pennsylvania (commissioned by the Republican State Committee of Pennsylvania) showed Mitt Romney four points ahead there — the first poll of any kind showing Mr. Romney with a lead in Pennsylvania since another Susquehanna poll in February.
A Susquehanna poll of Pennsylvania (commissioned by the Republican State Committee of Pennsylvania) showed Mitt Romney four points ahead there — the first poll of any kind showing Mr. Romney with a lead in Pennsylvania since another Susquehanna poll in February.
Whatever...
**Gulp** Romney Builds Gallup Lead Over Obama 52-45 …Update: Rasmussen Has Romney Up 49-47
Today on The Five, Beckel admitted dems aren't feeling good about poll numbers. But also again, he said the poll numbers aren't necessarily correct and are within the margin of error except for the one.
I enjoy Beckel. He can be a totally empty headed ass on some things, but he at least tolerates and listens to the opinions of his 4 conservative co-hosts. Usually. He's far more knowledgeable about politics than most of the fools bloviating and pontificating.
[quote=nick is rulz;26583432]man you guys kill me. A month ago you're insisting the polls are skewed in favor of Obama, now you're cherry picking the one poll that shows a lead and insisting it is a sure fire indicator of a Romney presidency.[/quote
I think you better look again. It isn't only one poll that shows him ahead. Maybe a little searching will show you a different picture.
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