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It appears that Marco Rubio may again be bobbing to the top of the GOP nomination pond. He's been here before, back in early 2013. But after his disastrous State of the Union response that year, as well as his daring to come out in support of a 'path to citizenship' for millions of undocumented workers (that went over so badly with the GOP base that Rubio has flipped back to being against it) he slipped off the radar. RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - 2016 Republican Presidential Nomination
The Christie surge followed, but then came Bridgegate and he too was gone.
Huckabee then had a brief moment in the sun, and Paul an even briefer one.
Last year, Bush established himself atop the heap, but then in recent months Scott Walker has elbowed his way to the top - he didn't push Bush off, going by the polls, but merely joined him there.
It looks like Bush is still there, but Rubio has replaced Walker.
Huh. This movie looks familiar. Have I seen it before? Oh yes! Now I remember! It played nationwide four years ago!
I guess the only question left is this; how many more Anyone-But-Bush candidates will we see before Bush finally nails down the nomination a year from now?
There is though. Blu-dogs are similar to Rockefeller republicans and moderate compared to liberal and progressive democrats. The only reason you think they are two sides of the same coin is because they compromise rather than kick and scream like you conservatives want.
I personally don't call compromising on the US Constitution, Conservative values.
If you don't stand for something, you will fall for anything.
It appears that Marco Rubio may again be bobbing to the top of the GOP nomination pond. He's been here before, back in early 2013. But after his disastrous State of the Union response that year, as well as his daring to come out in support of a 'path to citizenship' for millions of undocumented workers (that went over so badly with the GOP base that Rubio has flipped back to being against it) he slipped off the radar. RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - 2016 Republican Presidential Nomination
The Christie surge followed, but then came Bridgegate and he too was gone.
Huckabee then had a brief moment in the sun, and Paul an even briefer one.
Last year, Bush established himself atop the heap, but then in recent months Scott Walker has elbowed his way to the top - he didn't push Bush off, going by the polls, but merely joined him there.
It looks like Bush is still there, but Rubio has replaced Walker.
Huh. This movie looks familiar. Have I seen it before? Oh yes! Now I remember! It played nationwide four years ago!
I guess the only question left is this; how many more Anyone-But-Bush candidates will we see before Bush finally nails down the nomination a year from now?
And the late night of the election, we all found out, all that to be a media lie. Mitt Didn't have the support the media projected he did.
Especially when Ron Paul was pulling 10's of 1000's to hear him speak, while Mitt Romney could barely fill a small conference room.
Jeb Bush
Well, Jeb! has finally announced. Creative way to avoid using your kinda-toxic last name there, Governor. Ah, family coattails are a double-edge sword, no?
Anyway, it's about time he stopped pretending he wan't running yet. He's still the solid favorite to be the Republican nominee.
Marco Rubio
He's been laying a bit low as of late, and this seems to be working well for him for now. I think the Senator from Florida has the highest upside of all plausible Republican candidates. By the same token, the extent to which he's still rather opaque gives him significant downside potential as well. Still, the political lay of the land for Republicans is such that they need to roll the dice a little. Marco Rubio could be the future of the party.
Rand Paul
It seems like it's starting to fall apart for the Rand campaign. Paul's attempt to forge a grand coalition of sorta-but-not-really pretend libertarians, his father's groupies, the anti-war/anti-interventionists in the party, and the establishment appears to have left all those factions rather unimpressed.
Paul won't have to worry about that Kentucky law which prevents a candidate from running for both Senate and President in the same cycle - his Presidential bid looks to be DOA well before the final deadline for choosing one or the other.
Scott Walker
He's still vastly overrated. And it's showing with his stumbles.
Lindsey Graham
I still can't figure out the point of this run. The South Carolina Senator has absolutely no shot at the nomination. None. And Graham's practically a regular on the Sunday morning talk shows, having an inordinately high national stature even for a United States Senator, so the notion that he needs to boost his profile doesn't wash. Maybe he wants to be Bush's SecDef? Okay, but it's hard to see how a Presidential run advances that possibility.
I guess it's true what they say: Every Senator looks in the mirror and sees a President.
Ted Cruz
His moment in the Presidential sun seems to have passed. Is anyone foolish enough to think he actually has a shot?
Mike Huckabee & Rick Santorum
This is an interesting pair. These are the two candidates who exist almost entirely in the social conservative wing of the party. They both also share a sort of blue-collar populism that bucks against the influence of the ruling Wall Street faction of the party. But there, the similarities end.
Let's be honest - no one who prefaces a run for President with a job as a Fox News talking head, and writes a book titled God, Guns, Grits and Gravy, is a serious candidate.
Santorum is more serious and he actually has a path to the nomination, as 2012 demonstrated - but it's an extremely narrow path, and the presence of Huckabee complicates things because there are only so many social-issues-only Republicans. His only hope is that the Huckabee campaign falls apart before Iowa, but even then the odds are long.
John Kasich
He could easily be the establishment candidate, but he'll have to wrest that mantle from Bush. More likely, he's the running mate on a Bush (or, conceivably, Rubio) ticket. On that note, the latter - Rubio-Bush - probably has the greatest potential of any conceivable Republican ticket in 2016, though Bush-Rubio would be a bit safer at the expense of having a somewhat lower ceiling.
Chris Christie
I hope he runs. It'll be amusing seeing his campaign flame-out as spectacularly as Rick Perry's 2012 train wreck.
Bobby Jindal
Seriously?
Donald Trump
Popcorn futures went through the roof when Trump announced on Tuesday! Of course, he has no chance at winning a single primary or caucus. But he will make a few debates interesting. It's too bad for Republicans that Trump cares not one iota about how much damage he does to the GOP while he gleefully tosses his political hand grenades. In fact, he probably wants to increase the chance that Clinton defeats the eventual Republican nominee, just so he can crow "See? That's what you get for not nominating me! I'd have won!". He wouldn't win, of course, and he knows it, but he's got his shtick and he'll run with it. And did you notice how yesterday he proclaimed Bill Clinton the best recent President? That's not a man who cares one bit about advancing the Republican Party - he's just riding the GOP vehicle to mug for the cameras and to tout the Trump brand.
So how does this all play out? Trump, like all candidates, has 30 days from his announcement to file a list of all his assets and liabilities with the Federal Elections Commission. He probably won't do this, and he'll fold his candidacy amidst much bluster. However, he can request up to two 45-day extensions, and these are normally granted. That means he can stretch his 'campaign' out until mid-October before throwing in the towel. That'll give him a lot of grandstanding opportunities in debates, which will include a lot of crapping all over the GOP - and since Republicans have spent years cozying up to him things like his birther lunacy, plenty of that crap will stick.
Jeb Bush
Well, Jeb! has finally announced. Creative way to avoid using your kinda-toxic last name there, Governor. Ah, family coattails are a double-edge sword, no?
Anyway, it's about time he stopped pretending he wan't running yet. He's still the solid favorite to be the Republican nominee.
Marco Rubio
He's been laying a bit low as of late, and this seems to be working well for him for now. I think the Senator from Florida has the highest upside of all plausible Republican candidates. By the same token, the extent to which he's still rather opaque gives him significant downside potential as well. Still, the political lay of the land for Republicans is such that they need to roll the dice a little. Marco Rubio could be the future of the party.
Rand Paul
It seems like it's starting to fall apart for the Rand campaign. Paul's attempt to forge a grand coalition of sorta-but-not-really pretend libertarians, his father's groupies, the anti-war/anti-interventionists in the party, and the establishment appears to have left all those factions rather unimpressed.
Paul won't have to worry about that Kentucky law which prevents a candidate from running for both Senate and President in the same cycle - his Presidential bid looks to be DOA well before the final deadline for choosing one or the other.
Scott Walker
He's still vastly overrated. And it's showing with his stumbles.
Lindsey Graham
I still can't figure out the point of this run. The South Carolina Senator has absolutely no shot at the nomination. None. And Graham's practically a regular on the Sunday morning talk shows, having an inordinately high national stature even for a United States Senator, so the notion that he needs to boost his profile doesn't wash. Maybe he wants to be Bush's SecDef? Okay, but it's hard to see how a Presidential run advances that possibility.
I guess it's true what they say: Every Senator looks in the mirror and sees a President.
Ted Cruz
His moment in the Presidential sun seems to have passed. Is anyone foolish enough to think he actually has a shot?
Mike Huckabee & Rick Santorum
This is an interesting pair. These are the two candidates who exist almost entirely in the social conservative wing of the party. They both also share a sort of blue-collar populism that bucks against the influence of the ruling Wall Street faction of the party. But there, the similarities end.
Let's be honest - no one who prefaces a run for President with a job as a Fox News talking head, and writes a book titled God, Guns, Grits and Gravy, is a serious candidate.
Santorum is more serious and he actually has a path to the nomination, as 2012 demonstrated - but it's an extremely narrow path, and the presence of Huckabee complicates things because there are only so many social-issues-only Republicans. His only hope is that the Huckabee campaign falls apart before Iowa, but even then the odds are long.
John Kasich
He could easily be the establishment candidate, but he'll have to wrest that mantle from Bush. More likely, he's the running mate on a Bush (or, conceivably, Rubio) ticket. On that note, the latter - Rubio-Bush - probably has the greatest potential of any conceivable Republican ticket in 2016, though Bush-Rubio would be a bit safer at the expense of having a somewhat lower ceiling.
Chris Christie
I hope he runs. It'll be amusing seeing his campaign flame-out as spectacularly as Rick Perry's 2012 train wreck.
Bobby Jindal
Seriously?
Donald Trump
Popcorn futures went through the roof when Trump announced on Tuesday! Of course, he has no chance at winning a single primary or caucus. But he will make a few debates interesting. It's too bad for Republicans that Trump cares not one iota about how much damage he does to the GOP while he gleefully tosses his political hand grenades. In fact, he probably wants to increase the chance that Clinton defeats the eventual Republican nominee, just so he can crow "See? That's what you get for not nominating me! I'd have won!". He wouldn't win, of course, and he knows it, but he's got his shtick and he'll run with it. And did you notice how yesterday he proclaimed Bill Clinton the best recent President? That's not a man who cares one bit about advancing the Republican Party - he's just riding the GOP vehicle to mug for the cameras and to tout the Trump brand.
So how does this all play out? Trump, like all candidates, has 30 days from his announcement to file a list of all his assets and liabilities with the Federal Elections Commission. He probably won't do this, and he'll fold his candidacy amidst much bluster. However, he can request up to two 45-day extensions, and these are normally granted. That means he can stretch his 'campaign' out until mid-October before throwing in the towel. That'll give him a lot of grandstanding opportunities in debates, which will include a lot of crapping all over the GOP - and since Republicans have spent years cozying up to him things like his birther lunacy, plenty of that crap will stick.
After all, one reaps what one sows...
Whether I agree with you or not, I do alwasy like to see your analogy. I too think Walker is over rated and I think he lacks two things: 1-the personality and ideas to excite people and maybe the fire in his belly. He has to jump in soon if he want's to be part of the early debates which he will need to help people know he really is. This isn't saying I don't like him, just I think he needs to make a move.
Yes, Rand Paul and his campaign could be near the beginning of the end which is sad and way to early to see this happen. As for Christie, like him or not, he would bring a new element to the primaries.
The rumor mill at the GOP has it that Bush is paying Graham to run and be the surrogate anti-Hillary attack dog, running the negative anti HRC campaign so Bush does not have to.
The rumor mill at the GOP has it that Bush is paying Graham to run and be the surrogate anti-Hillary attack dog, running the negative anti HRC campaign so Bush does not have to.
I thought that Carly Fiorina was the resident anti-Hillary attack dog. I mean wasn't that her whole "this is why I am running video?"
Jeb! Bush
Firmly in the driver's seat. No real surprise to those paying attention and understanding Republican nomination dynamics.
Quote:
Bush has jumped from 10.8 percent on June 15, the day he announced, to 16.3 percent Wednesday in the Real Clear Politics polling average, almost 6 points ahead of his nearest rival, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. In New Hampshire, he’s taken a similar lead.
Media coverage of Donald Trump's controversial immigration remarks have lifted the GOP presidential candidate to the top of the Republican field, according to a new Economist/YouGov poll. Trump was the preferred GOP nominee for president for 15 percent of respondents — 4 points ahead of former Gov. Jeb Bush (Fla.) and Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.), who were tied for second place. Gov. Scott Walker (Wis.), Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) and former Gov. Mike Huckabee (Ark.) shared the third spot with 9 percent each.
Given his low ceiling, his lead won't last. But it gives him plenty of staying power, and it looks like we'll be seeing Donald Trump until at least February - and maybe longer, if he decides he just can't get enough of this really cool reality show he's discovered called running for President!
There sure were a lot of people chugging that Walker-flavored Kool-Aid straight from the pitcher. But there shouldn't have been. It was obvious all along that there was nothing to him.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unsettomati
Scott Walker
Walker is a popular dark-horse pick with those who conveniently forget that the GOP never nominates dark horses. Nevertheless, Walker is a Governor in a blue state, though not a particularly competitive one. His minor popularity seems to rest largely on the laws he has gotten passed collective bargaining for public sector workers on the issues of pensions and health care for most constituencies (conveniently excepting the traditional Republican-supporting professions of law enforcement and firefighters). But that's a rather thin resume. True, he has won two elections - but then, Tommy Thompson won four Wisconsin gubernatorial elections, all by larger margins than Walker, and we all saw in 2012 how that translated to a Presidential bid. At best, Walker seems like the next Tim Pawlenty, which means little more needs to be said regarding his Presidential prospects.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unsettomati
Scott Walker, John Kasich
They won reelection, each in a state the President Obama carried twice. That helps. But it doesn't change the fact that both are very dark horses in a party that never nominates dark horses for President.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unsettomati
Scott Walker
On one hand, he's won three gubernatorial elections in Wisconsin. On the other hand, Tommy Thompson won four, and by wider margins. Anyone remember the Thompson presidential run in 2008? Enough said. Walker's chances might actually be even more overstated than those of Chris Christie.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unsettomati
Scott Walker He's still vastly overrated. And it's showing with his stumbles.
Walker's total failure as a candidate was very predictable - but only to those willing and able to distinguish what the historical and contemporary evidence indicated from what they really, really, really wanted reality to be.
Oh, and as for the rest of the candidates? The favorite is still Bush, and the second-most likely nominee is still Rubio.
Thank you unsettomati, I enjoy your detailed analysis. I wish the whole board posted like you did instead of constantly posting stuff like "#FeeltheBern" or "Trump 2016".
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