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But, but, but it was only because minorities didn't turn out...
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In other words, in a 2012 electorate, Republicans would have won the popular vote for the House by 4.5 points, rather than 6.5 points.
Also, according to some liberals, the GOP re-won the House solely because of gerrymandering. This is true when it won the popular vote by 6.5 points?!?
But, but, but it was only because the young didn't turn out....
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Regardless, if we reduce the 65+ share of the electorate from 2014’s 22 percent to 2012’s 16 percent, increase the 18-24 year old share from 7 percent (2014) to 11 percent (2012), and adjust everything in between accordingly, the Republican advantage contracts by ... 1.94 points.
And, no, you cannot simply add 2 and 1.94. People are in multiple groups.
But, but, but this doesn't matter in the purple states, the above all because of huge margins in House races in red states. In purple/blue states, it was all about turnout...
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Applying the demographic splits from the 2012 election in Colorado only moves the results about 0.4 points to the left, resulting in another Gardner win.
The evidence of an entirely certain Democratic victory in 2016 is . . . ? Oh, yes, the "blue wall." The GOP winning the popular vote in 2012 by less than 1.5 with the same shift across the board would have resulted in an electoral college win. (And I don't think it would've taken that much of a popular vote win but that's for another thread.)
Also, even if it had been just low turnout by your voters, would that really be something to be proud of?
Last edited by afoigrokerkok; 11-20-2014 at 07:44 AM..
A perfect example of statistical inference being taken too far. It is impossible to know how a larger electorate would have voted. So I consider that RCP discussion little more than conjecture. I do agree with your observation that Dems should not be taking comfort in the notion that the low turnout excuses their losses. Dems have a real problem motivating their voters to get off their duffs and go to the polls. They are not always going to find an inspirational candidate like Obama. A boring old lady like Clinton may not be enough next time. This is a problem they need to work on. But then, it has always been a problem.
A perfect example of statistical inference being taken too far. It is impossible to know how a larger electorate would have voted. So I consider that RCP discussion little more than conjecture. I do agree with your observation that Dems should not be taking comfort in the notion that the low turnout excuses their losses. Dems have a real problem motivating their voters to get off their duffs and go to the polls. They are not always going to find an inspirational candidate like Obama. A boring old lady like Clinton may not be enough next time. This is a problem they need to work on. But then, it has always been a problem.
Not the republicans fault the dems were to embarked to vote. IMHO they did not show up. Excuse they did not want to vote dem But could not make themselves vote republican. It is a phenomen that happens with both parties during history
John Kasich on the red ticket could knock a hole in the vaunted blue wall. I could see Ohio, Iowa and possibly Wisconsin shifting to the red column. That'd be plus 34 electoral college votes for the elephants.
John Kasich on the red ticket could knock a hole in the vaunted blue wall. I could see Ohio, Iowa and possibly Wisconsin shifting to the red column. That'd be plus 34 electoral college votes for the elephants.
Kasich is hardly a RINO. As budget committee chair in 1995 he proposed elimination of the federal departments of energy, education, and commerce. He was thwarted by Newt Gingrich.
Kasich is hardly a RINO. As budget committee chair in 1995 he proposed elimination of the federal departments of energy, education, and commerce. He was thwarted by Newt Gingrich.
What RINO would propose the elimination of entire federal departments?
Oh please, at the RGA in Florida yesterday Kasich urged congress to work with Obama to solve immigration, endorsed the expansion of medicaid, and backed common core - all intelligent positions supported by the majority of Americans and all positions that will label him as a RINO. He may be able to win the presidency, but he will never get the chance to try.
But, but, but it was only because minorities didn't turn out...
Also, according to some liberals, the GOP re-won the House solely because of gerrymandering. This is true when it won the popular vote by 6.5 points?!?
But, but, but it was only because the young didn't turn out....
And, no, you cannot simply add 2 and 1.94. People are in multiple groups.
But, but, but this doesn't matter in the purple states, the above all because of huge margins in House races in red states. In purple/blue states, it was all about turnout...
The evidence of an entirely certain Democratic victory in 2016 is . . . ? Oh, yes, the "blue wall." The GOP winning the popular vote in 2012 by less than 1.5 with the same shift across the board would have resulted in an electoral college win. (And I don't think it would've taken that much of a popular vote win but that's for another thread.)
Also, even if it had been just low turnout by your voters, would that really be something to be proud of?
I think it's much simpler than that. Those liberal whites that were so enamored by this guy until he and guys like Holder showed their true colors and shamed their poor decisions in 2008-2012 FINALLY woke up and realized, between the fisting he has planned for THEIR healthcare (up to 28K in taxes for those with Cadillac plans to include RICH Liberals) and other taxes, they finally realized that while well intended, it was a HUGE mistake.
No, I think the turnout was low because enough liberal whites finally "got it". For those that did show up, they didn't vote with their conscience any longer, they voted with some logic and like most, with their wallets in mind.
In as much as the right would like to court more left votes, the left MUST have enough liberal white votes to get anyone on the left elected. Especially minorities as contrary to popular left wing spin, there aren't enough of them. The country is 315,000,000 folks that we know about. 74.1 percent are white. YOU do the math.
Said another way, for every Asian, Hispanic, Black, and Indian you see, there are 3 white folks walking around. If, as a politician, you find yourself with the former, you better have a way to get some of those folks to believe in you. Because, if THEY, like their black counterparts, voted down racial lines, you wouldn't see one Hispanic, black, Asian, or Indian in office. Think about it. Fact, not fiction.
Some on the left have proven they are to be trusted and are good politicians with AMERICA's interests in mind. The newly elected Black REPUBLICAN Senator from SOUTH CAROLINA, Tim Scott, proves this point. And that was a seat once held by an avowed racist, Strom Thurmond....again, from SOUTH CAROLINA!!!! You know, the guys that brought you the Civil War????
So, what have liberals learned. They have learned that just because you have guilt you still have to choose wisely. And, just because you realize you still have guilt, in this case, about bad decisions, you still have to right YOUR wrongs.
They lost because that Starbucks crowd woke the f up. Those minions you elected (Reid, Pelosi, Obama, and their designated appointees) are boning you. Do something about it. Vote the next President candidate who is Republican. It will give you a fighting chance to get things done next time.
Until then, we will have to garner majority votes to overcome what is anticipated to be the biggest presidential showdown against BOTH the House of Representatives and the US Senate. Hate to say it but, only special interests can get anything out of the President now.
The Great Divider has had his say. And now, it's time to neutralize his poor decision making once and for all. Look at Landrieu. She knows a thing or two about f'in her constituency, huh?
John Kasich on the red ticket could knock a hole in the vaunted blue wall. I could see Ohio, Iowa and possibly Wisconsin shifting to the red column. That'd be plus 34 electoral college votes for the elephants.
Btw, not boosting Kasich necessarily. Just say'n.
Ohio yes, due to homefield. Iowa no and Wisconsin heck no.
Plus, what is the response for Virginia (trending solidly blue), Florida (purple trending blue), Pennsylvania (leans slightly blue), Michigan (trending solidly blue), Nevada (trending solidly blue), and Colorado (purple trending blue)?
The electoral college map wasn't even close the last 8 years. A GOP win requires running the table on all battleground states, while most of them have leaned further blue.
There is simply no mathematical course for the GOP unless they find a centrist like Christie that can infiltrate the blue wall.
I don't buy Caleb's story. I am white semi-liberal, and if anything, I am a more motivated to vote democrat. Obama has been fine, and the GOP has been John Birch quality bad. I mean they seem to revel in being anti-science, anti-American, hate-mongering, and relentlessly dishonest shills for the plutocrats and televangelists. I have not seen a single GOP accomplishment in the last 6 years. But I am an individual, so my observations are just an anecedote. I guess I am just saying that even if the white libs are a bit disappointed with Obama (I am not, I know what he has been up against), the GOP has not acted in a way that is even remotely appealing. So, they are not a reasonable option. Given their toxic narrative, their only long term hopes are gerrymandering and vote suppression, or just laziness and despondency on the other side.
Bottomline. The GOP had the energy in this cycle. The Dems were lazy and unfocused. Congrats are in order, but anything beyond that is reading tea leaves.
Truth is, the Dems are like a sleeping grizzly, and the GOP is like a wolverine gnawing on its leg. Eventually, the grizzly is going to wake up, get mad, and have the weasel for breakfast. Probably in 2016, but that will depend upon leadership, which has yet to emerge.
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