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Ann Coulter recently argued that Mitt Romney could've won more than 70% of the Hispanic vote in 2012 and still would've lost, whereas an additional 4% of the white vote would've garnered him the presidenecy. She's right. So I thought it might be worthwhile to look at partisan shifts in the white vote on a state-by-state basis. Using the 2004 and 2012 presidential exit polls, I put together this map:
I didn't include a key because the color scheme requires a bit of explanation. Relative to 2004, the white share of the 2012 electorate was 5% smaller and 3% more supportive of the Republican candidate. Since the above map is intended to illustrate changes relative to the national mean, the light blue states are those in which the GOP experienced smaller than average growth in its margins (i.e., <3%). Average growth or better is signified by red, and dark red indicates that the Republican share of the white vote increased more than the white share of the state's electorate declined (e.g., whites represented 5% less of Arizona's electorate in 2012 than in 2004, but the Republican margin was 16% greater). Dark blue states are those in which, opposite the national trend, the GOP actually lost nominal white support. (Non-shaded states = 2004 + 2012 exit polls N/A)
Of course, this paints an incomplete picture as the attenuation of the white share of the electorate from 2004 to 2012 occurred at different rates in different states. So although the GOP's margin among whites jumped more in California (+4%) than nationally (+3%), the proportion of the state's electorate they constitute fell precipitously (-10%). Here's a map depicting the various levels of decline, with red indicating average or below average (≤-5%), blue meaning above average (>-5%), and dark red and dark blue signifying half (≤-2%) and twice (≥-10%) the average rate of attrition:
Takeaways? Well, among the states that could conceivably swing, Republicans can take solace in the fact that white voters in Arizona and Missouri, especially, have tacked hard right as their share of the electorate has dwindled. Florida evinces a similar pattern, but with the important caveat that the GOP's standing among Hispanic voters is concurrently in free-fall (-33%). Pennsylvania looks like an inviting target, as the white share of its electorate is relatively stable and trending more Republican (population growth is also anemic). That said, the GOP faces serious problems with respect to Virginia and North Carolina, where the nonwhite share of the electorate has barely budged but white voters have shifted increasingly Democratic. To a lesser extent, the same could be said of New Hampshire. Nevada and Colorado are even more ominous, pairing a similar Democratic trend among white voters with a rapidly expanding minority electorate. Nevada seems destined to become New Mexico; Colorado: Oregon.
Originally Posted by drishmaelThat said, the GOP faces serious problems with respect to Virginia and [B
North Carolina[/b], where the nonwhite share of the electorate has barely budged but white voters have shifted increasingly Democratic.
Are you kidding?
In 2008 in NC voted
President - Obama - DNC
State Senator - DNC
Governor - DNC
State General Assembly - Voted to continue the DNC's 100 year majority & control.
By 2014
President - Romney (2012) - GOP
State Senator - (2014) - GOP - this was the most expensive Senate battle in US history.
Governor - (2014) - GOP
State General Assembly - (2010-2012) Voted to give the GOP full control of the General Assembly which ended the DNC's historic control over the body.
Considering these staggering losses, and remembering that the DNC held its 2012 Convention in Charlotte, I say it's the DNC that faces serious problems.
The results absolutely don't agree with your conclusions.
State General Assembly - Voted to continue the DNC's 100 year majority & control.
By 2014
President - Romney (2012) - GOP
State Senator - (2014) - GOP - this was the most expensive Senate battle in US history.
Governor - (2014) - GOP
State General Assembly - (2010-2012) Voted to give the GOP full control of the General Assembly which ended the DNC's historic control over the body.
Considering these staggering losses, and remembering that the DNC held its 2012 Convention in Charlotte, I say it's the DNC that faces serious problems.
The results absolutely don't agree with your conclusions.
Presidential Elections and Midterm Elections have two very different turnouts. This was evident in the GOP's gains in 2010 and 2014 in the state. As far as 2012 goes, despite going to Obama in 2008 and Romney in 2012, the state actually trended Democratic when compared to the national average. Both the current Governor and the GOP legislature are quite unpopular in the state.
State General Assembly - Voted to continue the DNC's 100 year majority & control.
By 2014
President - Romney (2012) - GOP
State Senator - (2014) - GOP - this was the most expensive Senate battle in US history.
Governor - (2014) - GOP
State General Assembly - (2010-2012) Voted to give the GOP full control of the General Assembly which ended the DNC's historic control over the body.
Considering these staggering losses, and remembering that the DNC held its 2012 Convention in Charlotte, I say it's the DNC that faces serious problems.
The results absolutely don't agree with your conclusions.
Here's what the electorate looked like in 2012 and how it is projected to look in 2016:
If the racial groupings voted as they did in 2012, the 2% win for Romney in 2012 would be much closer in 2016 with a 1.7% shift to the Democrats.
Non-Col
White Col. White. Blacks. Hisp. Others
North Carolina (2012) 33.0% 37.0% 23.0% 4.0%. 3.0%
North Carolina. (2016) 35.0%. 33.8% 23.5% 4.3%. 3.5%
The columns don't want to match up properly, but the data shows college whites and minorities increasing with non-college white voters tanking. Over the long term the demographic changes that are shifting VA to Blue are also slowly turning NC. The strongest R group (non-college whites) is falling while more D oriented groups (white college grads and minorities) are all gaining. To keep NC Red over the long term means either improving with white college grads or improving with minority groups.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 09-06-2015 at 11:20 AM..
"Are you kidding?
...
The [North Carolina] results absolutely don't agree with your conclusions."
The results haven't caught up to my conclusions, but inevitably, they will. What you're witnessing is the last dying gasp of yesterday's majority struggling to hold on. I'm sorry, but with respect to North Carolina, it's only a matter of time:
Ann Coulter recently argued that Mitt Romney could've won more than 70% of the Hispanic vote in 2012 and still would've lost, whereas an additional 4% of the white vote would've garnered him the presidenecy. She's right. So I thought it might be worthwhile to look at partisan shifts in the white vote on a state-by-state basis. Using the 2004 and 2012 presidential exit polls, I put together this map:
I didn't include a key because the color scheme requires a bit of explanation. Relative to 2004, the white share of the 2012 electorate was 5% smaller and 3% more supportive of the Republican candidate. Since the above map is intended to illustrate changes relative to the national mean, the light blue states are those in which the GOP experienced smaller than average growth in its margins (i.e., <3%). Average growth or better is signified by red, and dark red indicates that the Republican share of the white vote increased more than the white share of the state's electorate declined (e.g., whites represented 5% less of Arizona's electorate in 2012 than in 2004, but the Republican margin was 16% greater). Dark blue states are those in which, opposite the national trend, the GOP actually lost nominal white support. (Non-shaded states = 2004 + 2012 exit polls N/A)
Of course, this paints an incomplete picture as the attenuation of the white share of the electorate from 2004 to 2012 occurred at different rates in different states. So although the GOP's margin among whites jumped more in California (+4%) than nationally (+3%), the proportion of the state's electorate they constitute fell precipitously (-10%). Here's a map depicting the various levels of decline, with red indicating average or below average (≤-5%), blue meaning above average (>-5%), and dark red and dark blue signifying half (≤-2%) and twice (≥-10%) the average rate of attrition:
Takeaways? Well, among the states that could conceivably swing, Republicans can take solace in the fact that white voters in Arizona and Missouri, especially, have tacked hard right as their share of the electorate has dwindled. Florida evinces a similar pattern, but with the important caveat that the GOP's standing among Hispanic voters is concurrently in free-fall (-33%). Pennsylvania looks like an inviting target, as the white share of its electorate is relatively stable and trending more Republican (population growth is also anemic). That said, the GOP faces serious problems with respect to Virginia and North Carolina, where the nonwhite share of the electorate has barely budged but white voters have shifted increasingly Democratic. To a lesser extent, the same could be said of New Hampshire. Nevada and Colorado are even more ominous, pairing a similar Democratic trend among white voters with a rapidly expanding minority electorate. Nevada seems destined to become New Mexico; Colorado: Oregon.
Wisconsin is dark blue, the opposite of what has occurred in that state during this time. Non-whites did not put the Republican legislature and Scott Walker in power in that state.
Currently, the Conservative white vote is being obliterated by the anti-bigot vote, so in essence, Republicans have no chance in 2016 to win.
The results haven't caught up to my conclusions, but inevitably,
You state opinion, not fact.
Furthermore you own charts prove you wrong. The tables you just posted versus the results over the same period absolutely demonstrate that your theory fails. The projections you make fail to take into account the huge influx of White middle class people from all over the USA.
The simplistic view of politics, Red vs Blue, is not how it works in the real world. In NC it's the Jessiecrats that determine where the state goes. They are the independent swing vote that determines elections along with the huge influx of people moving to the state from all over the USA.
Your theory for example does not explain how election after election NC could send the very conservative Jessie Helms to the US Senate while simultaneously voting to have a DNC Governor, Jim Hunt, and a DNC General Assembly.
Furthermore you own charts prove you wrong. The tables you just posted versus the results over the same period absolutely demonstrate that your theory fails. The projections you make fail to take into account the huge influx of White middle class people from all over the USA.
The simplistic view of politics, Red vs Blue, is not how it works in the real world. In NC it's the Jessiecrats that determine where the state goes. They are the independent swing vote that determines elections along with the huge influx of people moving to the state from all over the USA.
Your theory for example does not explain how election after election NC could send the very conservative Jessie Helms to the US Senate while simultaneously voting to have a DNC Governor, Jim Hunt, and a DNC General Assembly.
The Jessecrats are older, non-college, white voters, and there are fewer of them in NC with each Presidential election. Jesse left office in 2003 and died in 2008. More of his voters are joining him every year.
In 2012, Mitt Romney received 50.4% of the NC popular vote by taking 59% of white college voters, 74% of white non-college voters, 4% of blacks, 31% Latino and 43% Asian. The composition of the vote in NC in 2012 was 33% white college, 37% white non-college (70% white overall) and 30% minority. In 2016, the non-college white vote is projected to drop 3.2% and college whites will outnumber them for the first time. Even though the GOP carried white college voters in 2012 it was at a rate of 15% less than non-college white voters. There will be fewer Jessecrats (non-college white voters) in NC with every four year period. Can the GOP win in NC in 2016. Yep. In fact they probably will, but in a race so close it will probably be called after the national race is all but decided. At least that's what would have happened in 2012 if all of the racial/ethnic groups voted at the same rate as in 2012, but you adjusted the outcome to reflect projected 2016 percentages of total vote. Romney's 2% 2012 margin would shrink to 0.3% in 2016 just due to demographic change. Over the course of time, NC is trending like VA and winning either state will depend on winning college grad whites, not blue collar Jessecrats, because they'll represent a diminishing share of North Carolina's voters.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 09-08-2015 at 07:37 AM..
The Jessecrats are older, non-college, white voters, and there are fewer of them in NC with each Presidential election. Jesse left office in 2003 and died in 2008. More of his voters are joining him every year..
And how do you know this?
Furthermore, if this is actually true, then the results of the last few elections clearly show that as the Jessiecrats get fewer in number, the state turns increasingly Red not Blue as these silly 2 dimensional theories would have one believe.
Furthermore, if this is actually true, then the results of the last few elections clearly show that as the Jessiecrats get fewer in number, the state turns increasingly Red not Blue as these silly 2 dimensional theories would have one believe.
1. As mentioned previously, the state has very different turnouts between Midterm and Presidential elections.
2. While it switched from Obama to Romney, both margins were vey narrow. In fact the shift to the GOP swing from 08 to 2012 was less than the swing in the nation as a whole and actually trended Democratic. For midterms the state is still Republican, for Presidential races the state is increasingly a swing state.
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