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Based on his track record, I believe in Silver's ability to construct a statistical model based on polls and other data. I could be wrong, but I haven't seen anything that indicates that he is a partisan . . . he is just calling what he sees. We will see about the GOP nomination. There are two ways for Mr. Trump to not be the nominee.
Let me say this with unmistakable, absolute conviction and certainty: It is more likely than not that Mr. Silver is correct.
Mick
Mick it's not a hard question. You either believe Nate Silver's prediction that someone else will be elected to be GOP nominee or not. Yes or No will suffice. Weasel wording only means you think question is inconvenient and thus avoid giving answer.
So you guys championed Silver when he got the 2014 midterms correct up and down the board, but now he's wrong because he says the guy you want is in deep water? Gotcha unlike you, Silver is actually objective in his analysis and has been more right than wrong. Don't shoot the messenger if you don't like the message
Nate Silver is the only one who got 50 out of 50 right in 2012. He ignored the Romney/Rove bubble. He also almost batted 100 on the midterms. He's the man. No emotions--just the facts.
"Then came the actual voting. Silver got all 50 states right, down to his last-minute prediction that Florida would be a virtual tie."
Let him go ahead and forecast it. When that is done, more of Trump's supporters will show up at the polls.
I thought we established that this election season is like no other. We are breaking new ground.
Frankly, I am guessing no one cares what Nate Silver says. I didn't know who he was until I googled just now. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver Check out criticism in the article. He describes himself also as somewhere between a "libertarian and a liberal".
Let him go ahead and forecast it. When that is done, more of Trump's supporters will show up at the polls.
I thought we established that this election season is like no other. We are breaking new ground.
Frankly, I am guessing no one cares what Nate Silver says. I didn't know who he was until I googled just now. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver Check out criticism in the article. He describes himself also as somewhere between a "libertarian and a liberal".
Again, when you have nothing of substance, you have use what you have.
You're a bit late to the party if you just figured out who Nate Silver is. I've known about him for several years now. Also, just because you didn't know who he was, doesn't mean nobody knows who he is he predicted a very solid GOP win in 2014 and his name was thrown around on Fox News a lot since he was saying the GOP was going to win a landslide in Congress
So assuming the base (the base is all other GOP primary voters who backed someone else other than Trump) will vote for him; I think even that won't be enough for Trump to win if he doesn't have the back of Independents. And he is REALLY unpopular with Independents
Um NO he is not.
1988 - Senior Bush
1992 - Ross Perot
1996 - Ross Perot
2000 - Ralph Nader
2004 - Junior Bush
2008 - Barrack Obama
2012 - Mitt Romney
2016 - Donald Trump - probably, Bernie Sanders possibly
44% of the American electorate are Republicans and Republican leaning independents compared to 45% who are Democrats and Independents who lean Democrat. So the chance that those pollled about Trump aren't "real Independents" is very low
Last edited by theunbrainwashed; 01-19-2016 at 06:53 PM..
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unlike you, Silver is actually objective in his analysis and has been more right than wrong. Don't shoot the messenger if you don't like the message 
