Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
If Rubio thinks there's any chance at all of him getting the nomination at this point, then he's even dimmer than I thought he was. And I had him rated as about 1.5 watts.
Indeed. But I can't imagine any other reason for him to go through all the effort at this point. He's either extremely bitter, or he is really working some sort of GOP plan to keep Trump from being nominated.
He has a preliminary lead in Guam and is expected to clean up in that territory. In Wyoming Cruz has a delegate lead after the caucus there and is expected to rule at the Wyoming state convention on April 16. And if the polls are right, Cruz is likely to take a majority of the delegates in Wisconsin on Tuesday. That would be his eight right there.
Of course Ted Cruz is also quite likely to win majorities of delegates in other states as well going forward.
So it appears that Ted Cruz has the rule 40 eligibility requirement effectively satisfied. If the Republican establishment that runs the Republican national convention respects that rule, only Cruz and Trump will be eligible to be the nominee.
And as we all surely know by now, if Trump does not win the required 1,237 delegates outright in advance of the national convention, the nominee is not going to be Donald Trump.
So it appears that Ted Cruz has the rule 40 eligibility requirement effectively satisfied. If the Republican establishment that runs the Republican national convention respects that rule, only Cruz and Trump will be eligible to be the nominee.
And as we all surely know by now, if Trump does not win the required 1,237 delegates outright in advance of the national convention, the nominee is not going to be Donald Trump.
That's not the way it works.
Trump has to have 1237+1 on the first ballot. Unbound delegates are free to join Trump's bound delegates to put him over the limit. Trump only has to convince a small handful to win the nomination.
This is why Cruz is screwed either way. There are not enough unbound delegates to make him the winner on the 1st ballot whether Rule 40 is there or not.
The only reason for eliminating Rule 40, is so the GOP can nominate someone else aside from Trump or Cruz.
Trump has to have 1237+1 on the first ballot. Unbound delegates are free to join Trump's bound delegates to put him over the limit. Trump only has to convince a small handful to win the nomination.
This is why Cruz is screwed either way. There are not enough unbound delegates to make him the winner on the 1st ballot whether Rule 40 is there or not.
The only reason for eliminating Rule 40, is so the GOP can nominate someone else aside from Trump or Cruz.
The way it works is that Trump surpasses the 1,237 before the convention, or the remaining delegates are going to kick him to the curb and pick someone else, with that someone else almost certainly being Ted Cruz.
Rubio has contacted the Alaska BOE and convinced them to claw back his delegates from Cruz & Trump. So now Rubio's 5 delegates must vote with for him on the first ballot. After that, BOE will reassign them to Cruz & Trump should there be a 2nd ballot.
Rubio is either spiteful as hell, or he is really working a plan for a brokered convention so that he can be nominated.
Claw back? No. Alaska was not supposed to have reappropriated them in the first place. Their state party rules have provisions for reappropriation if a candidate quits, not if he suspends his campaign. They belong to him until he officially quits, officially releases them, or at least the first delegate vote occurs.
It may have nothing to do with Rubio's aspirations. It is probable that he has been asked to hold on to them so they can not be picked up by another candidate (Trump). Those 169 delegates could very realistically be the difference between whether a contested convention occurs or not.
__________________
When I post in bold red that is moderator action and, per the TOS, can only be discussed through Direct Message.
The way it works is that Trump surpasses the 1,237 before the convention, or the remaining delegates are going to kick him to the curb and pick someone else, with that someone else almost certainly being Ted Cruz.
Watch and learn, young padwan.
Nothing to learn. It's 1237 on the first ballot. And BTW, most of those unbound delegates will be coming from Pennsylvania. Trump won't have any trouble to go with him in a contest against Cruz.
Trump has to have 1237+1 on the first ballot. Unbound delegates are free to join Trump's bound delegates to put him over the limit. Trump only has to convince a small handful to win the nomination.
This is why Cruz is screwed either way. There are not enough unbound delegates to make him the winner on the 1st ballot whether Rule 40 is there or not.
The only reason for eliminating Rule 40, is so the GOP can nominate someone else aside from Trump or Cruz.
There is the little matter of him needing to hope that his delegates don't drop him like a hot potato the minute they become unbound (a very real scenario).
__________________
When I post in bold red that is moderator action and, per the TOS, can only be discussed through Direct Message.
Nothing to learn. It's 1237 on the first ballot. And BTW, most of those unbound delegates will be coming from Pennsylvania. Trump won't have any trouble to go with him in a contest against Cruz.
Out of curiosity, what makes you so sure they will go to Trump. The delegates are almost always party faithful, they will be looking to preserve their party.
__________________
When I post in bold red that is moderator action and, per the TOS, can only be discussed through Direct Message.
Out of curiosity, what makes you so sure they will go to Trump. The delegates are almost always party faithful, they will be looking to preserve their party.
I'll answer it this way.
Lets assume you are a party faithful and an elected unbound delegate. You are going to vote on the first ballot and your choice is Trump or Cruz. Lets also assume that you don't like Trump. Since you are a party faithful with intentions to protect the party do you vote
For Trump because even though you don't like him, he is the party's best chance for beating Hillary Clinton.
or
Do you vote for Cruz because in doing so, it may deny Trump the nomination for a "real" Republican to take the spot, even though the resulting s**tstorm will no doubt destroy the party's chances from taking the WH and may cost it much more.
Your choice.
This is the decision that every unbound delegate will have to make.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
