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Old 06-01-2016, 01:44 PM
 
Location: Austin
15,640 posts, read 10,396,089 times
Reputation: 19549

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Mick, that same report also said:

A titanic clash of the sexes leaves Democrat Hillary Clinton with a small 45 – 41 percent lead
over Republican Donald Trump in the race for president, according to a Quinnipiac University
National poll released today.

When third party candidates are added to the mix, Clinton gets 40 percent with Trump at
38 percent, too close to call,
the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll
finds. Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson gets 5 percent and Green Party candidate Jill
Stein gets 3 percent.


Polls are meaningless at this point, however.

 
Old 06-01-2016, 01:52 PM
 
52,431 posts, read 26,643,000 times
Reputation: 21097
Quote:
Originally Posted by snj90 View Post
Okay The footnote makes note that rounding may mean the figures don't add up to 100%. Luckily, we can still test my claim because the actual numbers are provided. # of white Hispanics = 26,735,713. Total number of Hispanics = 50,477,594. 26735713/50477594 = approximately 53.0% - that is, more than half.

And the percentage of white non-Hispanics is most certainly not rising.
Wrong footnote.

But here's where your "theory" fails. It's not the popular vote that elects Presidents. It's the electoral vote. So say for example in South Carolina, where the African American population is 28% and Hispanics make up 15% of Whites, the state's electoral votes are all going Red anyway. And SC is one of the most non-White states in the USA.

So it's a moot point.
 
Old 06-01-2016, 01:54 PM
 
Location: NYC
20,550 posts, read 17,715,012 times
Reputation: 25616
Well that's why the electoral college was created to ensure these imbalances are quaranatined to select states. The election is less about voters more about the political position sand demographics of each state.

Many blue states could go red because democrats have threaten the local economy such as gas pipeline, oil jobs, and factories moving to Mexico could shift the public position.

Many democrat strongholds are being threaten by Trump because Hillary is only leading by single digits compared to the last election where Obama took double digit leads in those states.

Democrats are siding with immigrants but most of the immigrants don't vote. You have a large % of youth vote that will only go Bernie or Trump and Hillary has very little support from them.
 
Old 06-01-2016, 02:38 PM
 
11,755 posts, read 7,120,263 times
Reputation: 8011
Quote:
Originally Posted by texan2yankee View Post
Mick, that same report also said:

A titanic clash of the sexes leaves Democrat Hillary Clinton with a small 45 – 41 percent lead
over Republican Donald Trump in the race for president, according to a Quinnipiac University
National poll released today.

When third party candidates are added to the mix, Clinton gets 40 percent with Trump at
38 percent, too close to call,
the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll
finds. Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson gets 5 percent and Green Party candidate Jill
Stein gets 3 percent.


Polls are meaningless at this point, however.
Yes, I mentioned that in my OP. Check it out again (I didn't edit).

Mick
 
Old 06-01-2016, 02:55 PM
 
52,431 posts, read 26,643,000 times
Reputation: 21097
Quote:
Originally Posted by MTQ3000 View Post
Yes, I mentioned that in my OP. Check it out again (I didn't edit).

Mick
As I pointed out above. It doesn't matter if Hillary gets 100% of the Black vote is most of them live in states that will go Red anyway.

People will be voting jobs. They won't be voting the color of their parent's skin.
 
Old 06-01-2016, 03:02 PM
 
Location: Silicon Valley, CA
13,561 posts, read 10,361,420 times
Reputation: 8252
Quote:
Originally Posted by vision33r View Post
Well that's why the electoral college was created to ensure these imbalances are quaranatined to select states. The election is less about voters more about the political position sand demographics of each state.

Many blue states could go red because democrats have threaten the local economy such as gas pipeline, oil jobs, and factories moving to Mexico could shift the public position.

Many democrat strongholds are being threaten by Trump because Hillary is only leading by single digits compared to the last election where Obama took double digit leads in those states.

Democrats are siding with immigrants but most of the immigrants don't vote. You have a large % of youth vote that will only go Bernie or Trump and Hillary has very little support from them.
Do the math.

Would you care to tell us which states that are blue which are dependent on oil and gas industries as a large part of their economy? Most of them are already red, such as Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana.

And which democratic strongholds are being threatened by Trump?

Fundamentally, the EC has a built in Democratic advantage. This means the Democratic candidate (any one) has to take only a few swing states to get to 270. OTOH, any Republican candidate has to pretty much run the table on swing states to get 270.

In the last 2012 election, Obama took 332 - 206 vs. Romney.

Tell us which voting demographic and what states is Trump going to flip from the Democrats.

He's basically doubling down on a core Republican base that is shrinking demographically while doing everything to alienate many other constituencies, many of which are key Democratic constituencies.
 
Old 06-01-2016, 03:03 PM
 
3,930 posts, read 2,099,160 times
Reputation: 4580
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
As I pointed out above. It doesn't matter if Hillary gets 100% of the Black vote is most of them live in states that will go Red anyway.

People will be voting jobs. They won't be voting the color of their parent's skin.
You would be correct if a presidential candidate wouldn't be constantly making comments remind them of the color of their skin.
Every time Trump opens his mouth and screams crap like that judge is probably Mexican, or makes a derisive comment on Black live matters etc it just reminds those minority groups there are more important issues than just promises of jobs on vague plans. But trust me the plans are great.
 
Old 06-01-2016, 03:08 PM
 
11,755 posts, read 7,120,263 times
Reputation: 8011
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
As I pointed out above. It doesn't matter if Hillary gets 100% of the Black vote is most of them live in states that will go Red anyway.

People will be voting jobs. They won't be voting the color of their parent's skin.
You are right to an extent. But VA has 20% black population. FL has 16%, OH has 12%, and PA has 11%. Not too bad for those swing states.

Go check out the polls on who is winning in the following Blue and Swing States: NY, CA, MA, NH, RI, CT, PA, MD, DE, VA, DC, FL, OH, MI, MN, IL, WI, IA, HI, NM, OR and WA.

If you wish to insert your "reasoned rationale" that completely contradicts the polls, that is your prerogative. I am sure Rosie O'Connell feels that she is very attractive and a nice person, but her opinion doesn't make it so.

Mick
 
Old 06-01-2016, 03:20 PM
 
Location: Renton - Fairwood, Washington
759 posts, read 637,513 times
Reputation: 875
Quote:
Originally Posted by MTQ3000 View Post

Go check out the polls on who is winning in the following Blue and Swing States: WA.
Yeah it's unfortunate that my vote won't count... Seattle metro votes blue... and it doesn't matter what the rest of the state does... even though they vote red.

I spent the weekend over in eastern Washington... Trump country.

Signs everywhere.
 
Old 06-01-2016, 03:22 PM
 
4,078 posts, read 2,340,738 times
Reputation: 1395
Quote:
Originally Posted by texan2yankee View Post
Mick, that same report also said:

A titanic clash of the sexes leaves Democrat Hillary Clinton with a small 45 – 41 percent lead
over Republican Donald Trump in the race for president, according to a Quinnipiac University
National poll released today.

When third party candidates are added to the mix, Clinton gets 40 percent with Trump at
38 percent, too close to call,
the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll
finds. Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson gets 5 percent and Green Party candidate Jill
Stein gets 3 percent.


Polls are meaningless at this point, however.
Anyone who believes Trump even has a remote chance of winning a general election when he gets clobbered by Dems with Women, Hispanics, African Americans and Millenials is insane and confusing his success in a GOP primary with a general electorate which are two VERY different things. He has ZERO chance in a general election. ZERO.
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