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Which makes it all the more strange that Trump is holding rallies in Texas and Mississippi. It's down to days now, and for a candidate to expend time and resources in places he doesn't need to, just doesn't make sense.
Trump cannot afford to take Texas for granted. Recent polling shows him with only a 6% lead here. That's too close for comfort in his largest electoral-vote state. Combine MOE with a larger-than-expected minority turnout and it could slip through his fingers. Polls show Trump only slightly ahead of Clinton in Texas | On Air Videos | Fox News
Trump cannot afford to take Texas for granted. Recent polling shows him with only a 6% lead here. That's too close for comfort in his largest electoral-vote state. Combine MOE with a larger-than-expected minority turnout and it could slip through his fingers. Polls show Trump only slightly ahead of Clinton in Texas | On Air Videos | Fox News
Chances are he is still ahead enough to win. The primary reasons he is in some of these states is to fundraise though. The rallies are just an added bonus.
Trump cannot afford to take Texas for granted. Recent polling shows him with only a 6% lead here. That's too close for comfort in his largest electoral-vote state. Combine MOE with a larger-than-expected minority turnout and it could slip through his fingers. Polls show Trump only slightly ahead of Clinton in Texas | On Air Videos | Fox News
If he's worried about Texas it's all the more reason to not waste time and money in Mississippi.
But, as you say, even if this poll is off by, say, 6%... it still means Trump is losing VA by 10%.
The 18 states + DC that every Democrat has won since 1992, plus VA and CO and NM and NH - in all of which Clinton has large leads - comes out to 273 Electoral College votes (Clinton needs 270 to clinch).
So, Trump has to hold AZ and GA, where he's barely hanging on.
And he has to take back NC and FL and OH and NV and IA, in all of which Clinton has staked out leads - pretty solid leads in FL, OH, NV, narrower ones in NC and IA.
And finally, he has to poach a state where he not only trails but trails badly now.
And he has no ground game. And he's being outspent. And half of his party treats him like he has flesh-eating bacteria.
It's no wonder the Trumplings are praying for Clinton to drop dead, or for an October Surprise. Really, what else is there?
You have had polls going from +7-+12 for Clinton. My guess is that It's around there. It might tighten up near the election but it's clear that Virginia voters really don't like Trump. Same seems to go for Colorado as well.
Trump cannot afford to take Texas for granted. Recent polling shows him with only a 6% lead here. That's too close for comfort in his largest electoral-vote state. Combine MOE with a larger-than-expected minority turnout and it could slip through his fingers. Polls show Trump only slightly ahead of Clinton in Texas | On Air Videos | Fox News
Tactically, Trump can't afford not to take Texas for granted.
He doesn't have the time or the resources to play defense. If he wastes time campaigning - not fundraising but campaigning - in Texas, then he squanders whatever chance he has to overcome Clinton's Electoral College lead.
It's like pulling the goalie late in a hockey game. So what if the other team puts one in the empty net? A loss is a loss. But doing so gives you more offense and a better chance - however small - to pull out the game.
Florida Poll (St. Leo's) August 14-18 1,500 Florida adults with 1,380 likely voters
Clinton: 52%
Trump: 38%
Women favor Clinton by almost 2:1 (Clinton 58.3% Trump 30.6%)
Hispanics: Clinton 70% Trump 23%
Blacks: Clinton +90%
Whites: Trump 50.6% Clinton 36.9%
Over Age 65: Trump 51.8% Clinton 39.6%
Under 35: Trump only gets 23%
Quote:
Women favor Clinton by an almost 2-to-1 margin, with Clinton preferred by 58.3 percent of respondents compared to 30.6 percent for Trump.
Trump is appealing to only 23 percent of the Hispanics in the survey; 70 percent support Clinton.
African-American support for Clinton is more than 90 percent.
Trump attracted more support than Clinton among white voters, at 50.6 percent to 36.9 percent for Clinton; still, Orlando predicted that the margin is not large enough to offset Trump’s “massive deficit among minorities.”
Age and party demographics are showing fault lines. Trump is winning voters age 65 and older, with support of 51.8 percent compared to 39.6 percent for Clinton. But Trump polled only 23 percent among voters younger than 35. Younger voters are apt to have perceptions of political parties shaped by experiences of their youth, according to Orlando, making this development worth watching. On a related note, he said, “Donald Trump is having trouble keeping Republicans loyal to the top of the ticket,” with only 74 percent of Republican respondents showing support. By contrast, Clinton attracted the support of 90 percent of the respondents who are Democrats.
Tactically, Trump can't afford not to take Texas for granted.
He doesn't have the time or the resources to play defense. If he wastes time campaigning - not fundraising but campaigning - in Texas, then he squanders whatever chance he has to overcome Clinton's Electoral College lead.
It's like pulling the goalie late in a hockey game. So what if the other team puts one in the empty net? A loss is a loss. But doing so gives you more offense and a better chance - however small - to pull out the game.
He is fundraising in Texas. That's the primary reason for him going there and to Mississippi. Staying there for a rally is still a waste though. He could easily fund raise and fly out to say Florida and do campaign events after. I can see being wary of Arizona, Florida, and maybe Georgia. Chances are Texas isn't going to vote for Clinton though.
Florida Poll (St. Leo's) August 14-18 1,500 Florida adults with 1,380 likely voters
Clinton: 52%
Trump: 38%
Women favor Clinton by almost 2:1 (Clinton 58.3% Trump 30.6%)
Hispanics: Clinton 70% Trump 23%
Blacks: Clinton +90%
Whites: Trump 50.6% Clinton 36.9%
Over Age 65: Trump 51.8% Clinton 39.6%
Under 35: Trump only gets 23%
Florida Poll (St. Leo's) August 14-18 1,500 Florida adults with 1,380 likely voters
Clinton: 52%
Trump: 38%
Women favor Clinton by almost 2:1 (Clinton 58.3% Trump 30.6%)
Hispanics: Clinton 70% Trump 23%
Blacks: Clinton +90%
Whites: Trump 50.6% Clinton 36.9%
Over Age 65: Trump 51.8% Clinton 39.6%
Under 35: Trump only gets 23%
For comparative purposes, during the entire 2012 election cycle, Florida was poll exactly 100 times - only one of those polls showed either candidate with a 10% or greater lead. And that was Magellan Strategies, a Republican pollster, who had Romney winning Florida by exactly 10% in an August 2011 poll. RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida: Romney vs. Obama
So, either this poll is off by a lot more than the worst Florida poll during the entire 2012 election cycle... or Trump is toast in Florida.
And there is no Trump path to victory that doesn't include Florida.
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