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Here is the reality. If Hillary Clinton wins Florida it's game over. All she has to do is hold down the blue states. She could even afford to lose either Michigan or Pennsylvania and still win the election if she wins Florida. Virginia allows Hillary to lose Pennsylvania or Michigan and still win.
When things get a little too dicey over at 538...... there is always Sam Wang at Princeton who - is as good some say better than Nate - gives Hillary a 98% chance of the win w/311 electoral votes:
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35.4% now. 
