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Steve Schale is a political strategist in Florida. He was the State Director for the Barack Obama campaign in Florida, managing Obama's 2008 effort in the state, and served as a Florida Senior Advisor in 2012.
Got anyone less biased?
The data is what it is. This is the guy who conducted two winning presidential campaigns in Florida. Whereas you may prefer anecdote, other people prefer numbers.
This^^^. This election is unlike any other. Trump is definitely a wild card and despite his flaws is running neck and neck with Hillary. My guess is he will win as the American people are focusing on the issues of out sourcing, jobs, illegals, and health care.
Your guess is as valid as anyone's.
I think that Ms. Clinton will prevail by a rather large margin. As I have noted many times in the past year, current polling methodology is struggling with the change in people's habits, including exclusive usage of cell phones, caller ID, etc. As I have said, it is why Gallup is literally sitting out this election.
The main reason I am predicting a Hillary Rodham Clinton win is simple: she is winning most demographic groups. Donald John Trump, as has been noted frequently, is doing best with the less-than-high school group. However, that category also has a poor turnout rate, compared with the other educational categories.
It is true that the black American vote will seemingly be down, I guess because Obama (or a black American) is not on the ticket. Yet, there is no doubt that Ms. Clinton is heavily favored in this category.
Ms. Clinton is also leading in the other educational levels (high school or higher).
Several weeks ago, 538 produced a graph showing what the election results would be if only women voted; the result: Clinton 458 electoral votes, Trump 80. While some women would have since changed their mind and vote for Mr. Trump, I doubt it will be enough to significantly change Ms. Clinton's lead among women voters. The early voting stats show that in most such states women are outvoting men.
The Hispanic vote is very much in Clinton's corner. Of course, the Republican National Committee famously ordered the 'autopsy' of the 2012 election results, which report recommended that the party must reach out to the Hispanics, noting that their voting power was growing with each passing year. Mr. Trump obviously did not read the report.
One thing to note: some analyst have observed that the Hispanic vote is usually under-polled. For some reason the Hispanic population is more resistant to being polled than any other group. Some believe that they will make the Texas vote closer than usual (although Mr. Trump will win Texas), while they may well tip the scale in Arizona and Nevada.
Another favorable demographic for Mr. Trump is the age 65+ group, but that is offset by the younger people going for Ms. Clinton.
Anyway, while I have enjoyed reading and posting about polls in this thread, I do so with the realization that their accuracy has been in question for a few years (at least 2010), and I don't feel like those doing polls today have yet figured out the 'sweet spot' for accurate polling.
I am certainly not counting Mr. Trump out. Only a fool would do that. A person that can surprise people with his support for a solid year, can certainly pull one more rabbit out of his hat.
What does it say about Trump's confidence (and his supporters) when he spends so much time worrying about minority turnout?
Because without it HC loses. Trump is going to get at least double what Romney and overall the AA vote is going to be down this year.
The Hispanic vote? It`s growing no question. However, this election there`s nothing to suggest it will be the deciding factor given their poor voting record. And even with all the hoopla surrounding Trump and his Hispanic comments he's still around 30%.
Just as important as the Black and Hispanic vote are those who voted for Sanders. After all that has happened it`s doubtful HC will receive much more than 70-80% of the Sanders vote. And Sanders received 550,000 votes in Fl.. Which isn`t to suggest they will vote Trump but they might well sit this one out or vote 3rd party. That`s a lot of lost votes considering Obama won in 2012 by less than 75,000.
And as I mentioned earlier there`s the wildcard: Those who normally wouldn`t vote Rep but will vote for Trump.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee
The data is what it is. This is the guy who conducted two winning presidential campaigns in Florida. Whereas you may prefer anecdote, other people prefer numbers.
I like numbers too but prefer numbers from those who don`t have such an outright agenda.
Because without it HC loses. Trump is going to get at least double what Romney and overall the AA vote is going to be down this year.
The Hispanic vote? It`s growing no question. However, this election there`s nothing to suggest it will be the deciding factor given their poor voting record. And even with all the hoopla surrounding Trump and his Hispanic comments he's still around 30%.
Donald Trump goes out of his way to offend Latino voters and you say it won't be a decisive factor in this election. Okaaaay.
I guess few people learned anything from the 2012 election when minority voter turnout was supposed to collapse due to depressed enthusiasm. That's what happens when you make assumptions not grounded in statistical data.
Univision released a poll exclusively focused on Hispanic voters yesterday. And Trump is losing by a 30 point margin, which is larger than the margin Romney lost by in 2012.
Donald Trump goes out of his way to offend Latino voters and you say it won't be a decisive factor in this election. Okaaaay.
I guess few people learned anything from the 2012 election when minority voter turnout was supposed to collapse due to depressed enthusiasm. That's what happens when you make assumptions not grounded in statistical data.
Univision released a poll exclusively focused on Hispanic voters yesterday. And Trump is losing by a 30 point margin, which is larger[/b] than the margin Romney lost by in 2012.
...Univision released a poll exclusively focused on Hispanic voters yesterday. And Trump is losing by a 30 point margin, which is larger than the margin Romney lost by in 2012.
Univision hates Trump with a passion. I wouldn't too much faith in their polling.
Nov. 4, at 10:48 a.m.EDT Clinton 67.7% Trump 32.3%
Nov. 3, at 8:03 p.m. EDT Clinton 66.9% Trump 33.0%
Nov. 3, at 6:17 p.m. EDT Clinton 65.2% Trump 34.8%
Nov. 3, at 11:51a.m. EDT Clinton 63.9% Trump 36.1% << high water mark?
Nov. 2, at 9:31 p.m. EDT Clinton 65.4% Trump 34.5%
Nov. 1, at 6:04 p.m. EDT Clinton 69.6% Trump 30.3%
Plus, as I noted earlier, Mr. Trump's main voter base, those with less than a high school education, have the lowest participation rate of the education categories. I believe I said that the high-water mark for participation was just under 40 percent.
There is, however, no doubt that the African American vote is down from the previous two elections. It may well make a difference in a few battle ground states.
Univision released a poll exclusively focused on Hispanic voters yesterday. And Trump is losing by a 30 point margin, which is larger than the margin Romney lost by in 2012.
I quickly perused the Univision poll. It is for three states only: NV, AZ, FL. The age of poll participants in the poll is heavily weighted to young potential voters: 59% under 50 years old. Older people tend to vote more consitently than younger people, in general. Not sure if that generality holds for Hispanic community. I found nothing comparing this poll to Romney's numbers. Romney got 27% of the Hispanic vote, but that was nationwide, not just three states.
Hispanic voters have been reported in the media to be participating more in this election than in previous elections. We don't know who they are voting for, yet, nationwide.
Plus, as I noted earlier, Mr. Trump's main voter base, those with less than a high school education, have the lowest participation rate of the education categories. I believe I said that the high-water mark for participation was just under 40 percent.
There is, however, no doubt that the African American vote is down from the previous two elections. It may well make a difference in a few battle ground states.
Perhaps but if there is any election this might change it`s the one on Nov 8th.
I know there is a lot of talk about the Dem ground game but I`m not too sure how well that will work with those not too thrilled with HC. Maybe if you give them $50 and a bus ride but who can be sure someone bought is going to vote for your candidate. .
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