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Old 11-04-2016, 01:50 PM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
39,093 posts, read 51,289,449 times
Reputation: 28337

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Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
Another Republican robo landline poll. Forget it.

 
Old 11-04-2016, 01:55 PM
 
12,547 posts, read 9,953,536 times
Reputation: 6927
Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
You can argue with Nate Silver if you believe his rating is inaccurate.
 
Old 11-04-2016, 01:58 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
37,803 posts, read 41,056,245 times
Reputation: 62204
Per CNN, Clinton has 268 right now. Trump has 204 and 66 are up for grabs.

"We've made four moves in the map since our last update and all of them are in Donald Trump's direction. Ohio, Utah, and Maine's 2nd congressional district are all moving from the battleground/toss-up category to lean Republican. And New Hampshire is moving from lean Democratic to a pure battleground/toss-up state."

Road to 270: CNN's general election map - CNNPolitics.com

There was a time when she was in the 300s.
 
Old 11-04-2016, 02:01 PM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
32,119 posts, read 34,781,879 times
Reputation: 15093
Quote:
Originally Posted by eddiehaskell View Post
You can argue with Nate Silver if you believe his rating is inaccurate.
It's not about Nate Silver. Every four years (this sounds like this might be your first ever election), a bunch of junk polls come out near Election Day. We went through the same thing back in 2012. We also went through...

-People saying the polls were rigged and oversampling Democrats
-People saying Obama's policies hadn't worked for Black people and would cause them all to stay home
-The idea a huge groundswell of angry voters was going to toss Obama out of the White House.

It is literally the same thing every election cycle.
 
Old 11-04-2016, 02:02 PM
 
12,547 posts, read 9,953,536 times
Reputation: 6927
Strategic National

Michigan


Trump 44%
Clinton 44%

Dems must be picking up at least some of this...
 
Old 11-04-2016, 02:02 PM
 
Location: Pasadena, CA
9,828 posts, read 9,429,061 times
Reputation: 6288
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ariadne22 View Post
When things get a little too dicey over at 538...... there is always Sam Wang at Princeton who - is as good some say better than Nate - gives Hillary a 98% chance of the win w/311 electoral votes:

Today’s Electoral College Map
Predictwise gives HRC an 86% chance of winning, that's up 2% from a few days ago (last time I checked).

If Nate was using his 2012 model instead of this new more sensitive one, he'd undoubtedly have her odds in the 85-90% range as well.
 
Old 11-04-2016, 02:03 PM
 
14,489 posts, read 6,109,858 times
Reputation: 6842
Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
It's not about Nate Silver. Every four years (this sounds like this might be your first ever election), a bunch of junk polls come out near Election Day. We went through the same thing back in 2012. We also went through...

-People saying the polls were rigged and oversampling Democrats
-People saying Obama's policies hadn't worked for Black people and would cause them all to stay home
-The idea a huge groundswell of angry voters was going to toss Obama out of the White House.

It is literally the same thing every election cycle.



Except Clinton is no Obama
 
Old 11-04-2016, 02:03 PM
 
20,187 posts, read 23,877,477 times
Reputation: 9284
Quote:
Originally Posted by gsoboi78 View Post
Pennsylvania, Colorado? Not a chance
A poll two days ago, had Trump and Clinton tied... the momentum is favoring Trump...
 
Old 11-04-2016, 02:03 PM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
32,119 posts, read 34,781,879 times
Reputation: 15093
Quote:
Originally Posted by dashrendar4454 View Post
Except Clinton is no Obama
In 2012, Obama was supposedly no Obama...
 
Old 11-04-2016, 02:04 PM
 
12,547 posts, read 9,953,536 times
Reputation: 6927
Polls-plus forecast Trump is 36.3% to win.
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