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I have been reading several analyses on several different websites, and they have all come to the same conclusion: the chance of the win is hugely in Hilary's favor. I've been seeing probabilities around 80+% all around.
538 currently has Clinton with 65% chance to win, Trump 35%. Wang wrote on his blog that he is concerned that 538's calculations might be double-counting the variances in state and national polls. This would make the bell curve of possible results broader and wider than it really is, which would understate Clinton's chances and overstate Trump's chances.
In 2012 Wang's models predicted Obama would get 51.1% of the vote and that's exactly what Obama got.
"FBI Leaks: Clinton Foundation Probe a 'Very High Priority,' Will Likely Lead to an Indictment"
Poor hilbots. News isn't looking good at all, win or lose.
Hillary may not be the most ideal candidate (has there ever been), but she's sure as heck a lot better than what the GOP put out this year.
The GOP is about to implode. We may very well see a strong 3rd party come from this as the Republican Party tries to distance itself from this alt-right movement of white, Christian nationalists.
Demos work against Trump but the news on Clinton has been bad and might keep minorities from coming out for Clinton. A white male only vote for Trump is a sure loser.
Highly respected statistician Sam Wang at Princeton University does continuously updated statistical analysis of polls. He has analyzed prior elections and one of the key factors he has calculated is how fast do polls move, not just one poll, but all of them together. In other words, when all polls shift two points, they do not shift instantly or overnight. It takes a number of days for the opinions of millions of people to change.
Based on where the polls are today with just 5 days left, Wang's calculations show that there is not enough time remaining for Trump to catch and pass Clinton. You can see it on the Median EV Estimator chart here. The red band is the maximum change with 66% certainty, while the yellow has 99% certainty. Since the yellow band is higher than 270 for Clinton, the stats say it is extremely unlikely for Trump to win.
I thought the red band was one-sigma (68% confidence band) and the yellow band was two-sigma (95% confidence band).
That's still not Nate Silver. Nate Silver is not responsible for every opinion that someone who contributes to the site (which is now owned by ESPN btw) states.
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