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As somebody who lives in one of the most pro-Trump places in the US, I agree with this. I think Trump's joke that he could shoot somebody on 5th avenue and not lose his supporters is literally true. I also don't think it matters who the Democrats nominate. People currently saying MAGA will vote for Trump no matter what. They won't vote for a Democrat under any circumstance. Likewise there probably aren't many people left still on the fence about Trump. Most who aren't currently all in probably won't be voting for him in 2020.
What the Democrats need to do is energize their base. They need a candidate without the baggage or likability issues Hillary had who can draw out the center-left and left to actually vote. They need somebody charismatic who can speak to the people. If the Democrats nominate somebody like that, they will win.
And I'm sorry to say, not a woman. If Republicans want to prove they aren't completely misogynist, let them nominate and elect a woman (they won't). Since women don't care if a woman is never president, we shouldn't waste another election trying. Obama was unique and blacks came out for him. Women have shown they will not do that. Democrats need to just focus on nominating a white guy. Icing on the cake would be if the guy was rich or good looking, both of which seem to intimidate Trump.
What the Democrats need to do is energize their base. They need a candidate without the baggage or likability issues Hillary had who can draw out the center-left and left to actually vote. They need somebody charismatic who can speak to the people. If the Democrats nominate somebody like that, they will win.
Out of curiosity are there any Democrats who might fit that bill?
Out of curiosity are there any Democrats who might fit that bill?
I'm not sure. We'll need to get through the 2018 midterms and then see who emerges. At this point in 2006, not many people who weren't political junkies or from Illinois really knew a lot about Obama.
It isn't just a matter of finding someone to fit this mold:
Quote:
Originally Posted by bawac34618
They need a candidate without the baggage or likability issues Hillary had who can draw out the center-left and left to actually vote. They need somebody charismatic who can speak to the people. If the Democrats nominate somebody like that, they will win.
I don't believe they seek out the best person for the job. It has to be someone that has accrued enough political capital to cash it in to actually make a run for it. So, that might be a short short list to start with. And they might be stuck with two poor nominees.
As somebody who lives in one of the most pro-Trump places in the US, I agree with this. I think Trump's joke that he could shoot somebody on 5th avenue and not lose his supporters is literally true. I also don't think it matters who the Democrats nominate. People currently saying MAGA will vote for Trump no matter what. They won't vote for a Democrat under any circumstance. Likewise there probably aren't many people left still on the fence about Trump. Most who aren't currently all in probably won't be voting for him in 2020.
What the Democrats need to do is energize their base. They need a candidate without the baggage or likability issues Hillary had who can draw out the center-left and left to actually vote. They need somebody charismatic who can speak to the people. If the Democrats nominate somebody like that, they will win.
What happens with a Third Party running, as in another Ross Perot situation? How many Republicans dissatisfied with Trump would go Third Party? Not saying this candidate would win, but could sway the election one way or another.
What happens with a Third Party running, as in another Ross Perot situation? How many Republicans dissatisfied with Trump would go Third Party? Not saying this candidate would win, but could sway the election one way or another.
I started to put in a choice about a third party option in the poll but took it out because it is not applicable to a Republican primary challenge.
But yes, I think that 2020 could definitely be a year that a strong third party candidate could change things.
I do not like Kasich and I think he has managed to build a reputation for being a moderate that is completely at odds with his actual record. But I think that based on the fact that most people don't see past his false reputation, he could run a very strong third party campaign against Trump, and depending on who the Democratic nominee he, possibly against that person as well if they ended up with someone more towards the extreme left rather than the more typical Centrist Democrat who tends to be who wins the primary.
I started to put in a choice about a third party option in the poll but took it out because it is not applicable to a Republican primary challenge.
But yes, I think that 2020 could definitely be a year that a strong third party candidate could change things.
I do not like Kasich and I think he has managed to build a reputation for being a moderate that is completely at odds with his actual record. But I think that based on the fact that most people don't see past his false reputation, he could run a very strong third party campaign against Trump, and depending on who the Democratic nominee he, possibly against that person as well if they ended up with someone more towards the extreme left rather than the more typical Centrist Democrat who tends to be who wins the primary.
My husband and daughter's MIL are life long Republicans. Both went Third Party because they did not like Trump. If Trump wins the Primary (no challengers?), he will have a Presidential record this time for voters to decide on.
If the primaries was tomorrow, there are some things that a challenger would have a hard time discussing. Sure, one could make the argument that unemployment (for example) has been in a downward trend since Obama was in office. However, that's a pretty weak argument. It would make the candidate look silly. So Trump can go on saying "look what I did for employment!" and I don't think there could be a counterargument that would resonate with voters.
I think its too early to be able to answer this question. Of course, we all think we are prognosticators :P I think we'd have a better shot at answering after the midterms. If it isn't as catastrophic as people are making it out to be, the chances of a challenger in primaries plummets.
Assuming he's still in office to run for reelection in 2020 (which might not happen for any number of reasons, not all of which have anything to do with Mueller's investigation), will Trump face a primary challenge from within his own party?
It's unusual but not unheard of for an incumbent president to be challenged. In the modern era, no incumbent has lost a primary but a couple came close - Ford vs Reagan in 1976 and then Carter vs. Kennedy in 1980. And a lot of people think Johnson withdrew in 1968 because he thought he might lose the primary.
It would be an interesting exercise to see how many people support Trump personally vs. how many support him solely because he was the GOP candidate.
If the election were right now, I don't think he would be primaried. And that's the only reasonable way we can try to answer the question. Just based on the economy alone, he wouldn't be.
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