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https://thehill.com/homenews/state-w...pes-for-a-wave In Texas...voters between the ages of 18 and 39 made up a little less than a quarter of the total Texas early vote; four years ago, those voters made up just 13 percent of the electorate. ... "The real question is, have the polling models gotten the turnout right and accounted for the surge in voter registration we've seen among millennials and younger voters," Siegfried said. "If they haven't, then this could potentially be a gigantic tsunami."
Lies and scare tactics again. O"Rourke's campaign made a charitable donation to a non-profit organization which assists immigrants who are already here.
Nothing whatsoever to do with those making their way north.
Good grief, did no one ever teach any of your Trumpites how to do basic research?? Or is it that being honest is the real problem, rather than not researching your fake claims?
Yeah .... I saw Beto's response to this video.
1). He fired the guy in the Video called a "staffer" -- that "staffer" was in charge of this Field Operations, based in the Beto El Paso Headquarters. I guess Beto was against him "giving to charity" - so he got fired. Anyone really buying that?
2). Beto cited a group of Hondurans that arrived in El Paso this last Friday - they "charitably spent $300" on Diapers, Baby Wipes, Fruit and granola bars. Somehow he ignored that the Video was made weeks ago about an even that happened the day the Video was released. He also ignored that the 2 Field Organizers (did he fire the woman also?) stated clearly that they were breaking law, "nobody needs to know", using the Money for bus trips, giving them rides in their Campaign vehicles and hiding the expenses under "halloween treats" expenditure.
Claiming it was for "charity" was a good idea ..... failing to come up with a more believable story in their Panic was an error. I guess that Beto is not aware that there is a record of those Pre-paid cards and a record on how/where the card was used.
I expect we will eventually find out a LOT more about this.
Today, 5 November, the 538 has the most recent Texas poll, taken today, as being dead even between Cruz and O'Rourke.
49-49% for each, with a Libertarian getting the rest.
Today, 5 November, the 538 has the most recent Texas poll, taken today, as being dead even between Cruz and O'Rourke.
49-49% for each, with a Libertarian getting the rest.
If Beto won, this would be the #1 biggest shocker race of the mid-terms.
Seems he is getting momentum at the last minute with polls. Wondering if the pollsters are changing up their expected voter demographic after seeing the early voter demographics.
If Beto won, this would be the #1 biggest shocker race of the mid-terms.
Seems he is getting momentum at the last minute with polls. Wondering if the pollsters are changing up their expected voter demographic after seeing the early voter demographics.
All the pollsters are being very cautious this year. 2016 showed some big flaws in the way the polls were conducted, and those flaws were invisible before. For a business that depends on accuracy, 2016 rattled them to their bones.
2 years later, the industry is still trying to discover what went wrong with methodology that had always been reliable before. They all used the same basic methodology except for a few outliers, and some of the most reliable methods failed for reasons that are still mysterious in part. Some reasons became evident very quickly.
The polling industry is the only predictive tool in politics, and the most important thing to a politician a poll can deliver is bad news. Every candidate must know when he's getting into trouble as early and accurately as possible if he hopes to win.
When the polls fail to deliver the bad news, a candidate is flying blind. He doesn't know where the lurking problems are that can defeat him.
It's going to be interesting to see how the polling practices have changed this election. I tend to think that 2018 is the test for them all, and we will be seeing more polling after the election than ever before.
It's a sort of "Doctor, heal thyself." thing. If the doctor can't heal himself, who else can?
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