Which states will contribute to the alleged “blue wave”?

[Kibby]

Originally Posted by Mouldy Old Schmo

If there is a “blue wave” in November, in which states will it happen? That is, which states will send more Democrats to the House or Senate?

If my memory is correct -- they are counting heavily on California. Few understand that while California is a Deep Blue State .... there are still pockets of survivors that vote in Republican House members.

The biggest gain for the "Blue Wave" is to flip the California seats.

[Bureaucat]

Originally Posted by Kibby

If my memory is correct -- they are counting heavily on California. Few understand that while California is a Deep Blue State .... there are still pockets of survivors that vote in Republican House members.

The biggest gain for the "Blue Wave" is to flip the California seats.

California, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania all have multiple targets. Red suburban seats in blue states with high concentrations of college grads are prime targets. California has 1 R seat thought by Cook to be leaning D and another 5 R seats listed as tossups.

Attached is a listing of the competitive seats from Cook Political Report. Those listed as “ tossup or worse” include 3 Democratic seats and 40 Republican ones. Other seats leaning for the incumbent party but considered less than completely safe are another 10 Democrats and 52 Republicans. Total seats considered less than totally safe are 13 Democratic seats and 92 Republicans.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/rating...e-race-ratings

It’s really difficult to determine the number of House seats likely to fall in a wave election. There are relatively few polls, as compared to Presidential and Senatorial contests. Usually, prognosticators just pick a range variance of 20/30 seats. In wave years, the wave party usually does about 3% better in average vote than polling averages. That much variance can sweep a lot of seats one way or another and invariably some will fall that weren’t considered in danger at all. Tom Foley of Washington is an example of the type of stunner you can have when a national wave is cutting against you.

[Natural510]

Pennsylvania’s redistricting will be huge. If NC, Ohio and Wisconsin could be redrawn into even halfway sensible districts, the GOP would be in real trouble and they know it.

[Seacove]

Originally Posted by Kibby

If my memory is correct -- they are counting heavily on California. Few understand that while California is a Deep Blue State .... there are still pockets of survivors that vote in Republican House members.

The biggest gain for the "Blue Wave" is to flip the California seats.

Since Republicans in California voted for a tax plan that raises taxes on their own constituents, they can't be surprised if Californians want to kick them out. Republicans in blue states betrayed their own voters.

[dsjj251]

Originally Posted by Kibby

If my memory is correct -- they are counting heavily on California. Few understand that while California is a Deep Blue State .... there are still pockets of survivors that vote in Republican House members.

The biggest gain for the "Blue Wave" is to flip the California seats.

Democrats aren't really counting heavily on California,but any seat picked up there will offset seats that are more of a stretch in the east.