Dead heat polls, NJ might elect first Republican Senator since 1977! Good bye Menendez and hello Huggin (voters, Democrats)

[DannyHobkins]

https://www.politico.com/states/new-...te-race-632596

[WiseManOnceSaid]

There's a lot of discontent in NJ these days. People are fed up with the complete heist of their monies.

[DannyHobkins]

Originally Posted by WiseManOnceSaid

There's a lot of discontent in NJ these days. People are fed up with the complete heist of their monies.

Record low turnout at the polls gave NJ Governor Murphy who hugely unpopular with most of the state.

[OrangeHudson]

NJ like NY people are fend up by corruption and self interest - both Democrats and Republicans.



Menendez will probably win, but probably not be double digits

[Ponderosa]

This one will be called early for Menendez, scum that he is. It's the same thing as Cruz in Texas - teaser polls but in the end won't be that close.

[dsjj251]

Originally Posted by DannyHobkins

Record low turnout at the polls gave NJ Governor Murphy who hugely unpopular with most of the state.

It's the exact same turn out that elected Chris Christie so I honestly don't get your point .

[mrpeatie]

Other than Lautner and Christie Todd Whitman- has New Jersey ever had a politician that wasn't corrupt? Its insane these people keep voting for crooks time and again....

[bellhead]

Originally Posted by DannyHobkins

https://www.politico.com/states/new-...te-race-632596

You have no understanding of how NJ politics, unions, & the democratic machine work there so the polls don't tell the picture.

NJ is a state dominated by local politics, it's very tribal with over a 100 different municipalities in the northern populated part of the state. A large portion of government workers are loyal to the party & their leaders as their jobs are dependent upon who is in office at the time, & are expected to toe the party line. A very good example are the police unions in these areas, they vote in a block & have no defections come election day. The race will be around five points but Menendez isn't going down.

[swilliamsny]

A few things going on here, from my perspective.


Menendez has been plagued by corruption charges, and yes, the people are sick of the criminality in politics. Hugin is another big business candidate, which isn't doing him any favors, but might be preferred over the first.


Just an opinion, but I think there are two reasons for the polls being this close. First, NJ isn't as blue as a lot of people think, so if you can't energize the voters in the urban centers, you're losing a lot of Democrat votes. With Menendez's issues, and some good ads against him, not a lot of Dems are excited about getting out to vote. Second, Republicans are angry about how Democrats have tried to take down Kavanaugh. Even some who don't like the man are energized and ready to vote for Hugin because of the dirty tricks we're seeing from the Democrats.


Still think Menendez squeaks out a win.

[bellhead]

The only poll showing Hugin close was the Stockton poll which oversampled republicans. Menendez will win, but it will be a lot closer than it should be.

Fairleigh Dickinson 9/26 - 9/30 508 LV 4.3 43 37 Menendez +6
Stockton University* 9/19 - 9/27 531 LV 4.3 45 43 Menendez +2
Quinnipiac 8/15 - 8/20 908 RV 4.6 43 37 Menendez +6