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Demographics is destiny. The Democrats know this, hence their use of identity politics as a matter of course. Idealistic Republicans still cling to outdated ideas about "individuality" and "content of their character." In a multicultural society, people will vote according to their race and ethnicity, less on issues. And it won't be just non-whites competing with whites, it will be non-whites competing with other non-whites for political muscle. See Compton CA for further details.
Florida ended up being one of the best results today for republicans but it may have been the last time they see red and this time it may not come back after ammendment 4th pass https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_Amen...itiative_(2018) this is really bad for the GOP even if Trumps approval is a net positive there i don´t see how he wins Florida in 2020 now with a big bunch of these votes almost certainly going DEM..
Then there is Texas.. There are some factors that make me think that it will turn blue by 2024 and this will probably change US politics forever because with current trends it will not come back... California "refugees" keep running away from California to go to places like Austin in Texas and then vote for the same policies that made them leave Cali.. Demographics of course have a huge impact, and Trump/Republicans will have to turn the hispanic vote for their side somehow (which would be kinda logical since culturally hispanics lean conservative) but it´s gonna be difficult because unlike the "white vote" in which we see people voting according to their ideals, minorities keep voting with a "tribal" mindset even when the economy is booming so it´s difficult to know what to do from a republican perspective but something most be done to reverse trends.
The entire nation is trending "blue". With more and more citizens relying upon benefits from the federal government, there will be a larger group of citizens voting to retain and expand those benefits.
It is a realization of the fact that republics die when the citizens realize that they can vote themselves more and more benefits from the government. As Margaret Thatcher said, "Socialism is great until you run out of other people's money".
TEXAS is a big one. A race that should have been won by 15-20 points was won by two against a WEAK and extremely liberal candidate. No matter what your political views, those numbers are very important. IMHO, a "great" candidate on the Dem side (War Vet and some other stuff on his experience) would probably have won. That's historic.
In Florida not much has been proven but here are some statements you can agree or disagree with.
1. Florida picked up House Seats on the Blue side. House does represent "the people" in a sense.
2. Florida voted for many "liberal" Amendments - by a WIDE Majority, including overturning Jim Crow voting laws.
3. Scotts election proves only one thing - same as his other elections. 66 Million dollars will likely buy you a 1/2 a percent to one percent. He spent almost $20 for each voter who voted for him...that's pretty heavy duty.
We can call the Gov and Senate Races both "ties" in that regard.
4. Tax hikes for "people centered" projects like our Sarasota Bike Trail (big bucks) won handily.
One of the reasons many numbers people like politics is that it is impossible to read the tea leaves. It's like having a sports team with 100's of millions of members. No predictions can be made for future except one that I see clearly.
Florida is voting for liberal things - the Amendments, Bike Path and other such things...by WIDE margins. That shows that these things (fairness, quality of life, equal rights, and even recreational infrastructure (with higher taxes!) are popular beyond any doubt.
If we were to talk about the "old" Florida, they would vote down tax increases and they would definitely vote down giving voting rights to the "wrong" people. Lots of other stuff the "old Florida" would vote down too - yet it was voted UP.
So, in summary, Florida is still a swing state BUT the residents have decided they want diversity, equal rights, an end to the war on drugs, better recreational opportunities and many other such policies.
Rabid Righties would call that negative. Reasonable people would say it's all good...
This is the political equation. The more realistic part now is that Florida IS an environmental mess. Most everyone agrees on that. The Gov. and Senator are going to have to at least give some lip service and some money towards fixing those messes (red tide, unlimited traffic, beach erosion, etc.)....although I don't think they will do as much as the Dems would have. What is needed is much more than what they are likely to do.
Demographics is destiny. The Democrats know this, hence their use of identity politics as a matter of course. Idealistic Republicans still cling to outdated ideas about "individuality" and "content of their character." In a multicultural society, people will vote according to their race and ethnicity, less on issues. And it won't be just non-whites competing with whites, it will be non-whites competing with other non-whites for political muscle. See Compton CA for further details.
Florida is voting for liberal things - the Amendments, Bike Path and other such things...by WIDE margins. That shows that these things (fairness, quality of life, equal rights, and even recreational infrastructure (with higher taxes!) are popular beyond any doubt.
Sarasota County voters also continually vote for higher school taxes - as a county wide ballot item. And Florida voted overwhelmingly for Medical Marijuana in 2016. And Florida voters statewide voted in 2016 to increase taxes for environmental land purchases by a wide margin.
I live in Texas....while the Dems were able to turn things around in local races in their favor, Texas hasnt elected a statewide Dem since 1995 and it will be awfully tough to change that going forward. There are way too many ass backwards counties in Texas for any DEM to have a chance, no matter how many people move here from California or the midwest.
Beto O'rouke won all of the counties in Texas with population over 250k...but, he won El Paso and Austin 3 to 1, and Dallas 2 to 1 to also known by his white name Ted, over the top.
no matter how polished, no matter the experience..no matter the campaign talk, you cannot change the hearts and minds of those mofo's in the texas panhandle, west texas, or east texas. the will continue to vote red, hell Burnt Red, until they die.
as for Florida, the passing of Amendment 4 could be interesting. 1.4M ex felons will get their voting rights back, and I will just assume more than half of them are black. Thats a whole lot of new voters coming on the rolls again, and they could be the new swing voter in Florida, the ex-felon who is taking out his frustrations on the ballot box....thats if they get registered and vote, providing they arent "gerrymandered" or some new republican circus comes to town to prevent them from voting.
Finally, no one is even talking about the current "New" voting bloc in Florida..that being the Puerto Rican voter. some 500k Puerto ricans moved to florida since hurricane Maria, and Rick Scott saw an opportunity to swing their vote....he went down the PR 8 times, and unlike 45 who doesnt care about brown people, Scott cares about the brownies who will vote for him.
It's only going to get worse for the GOP moving forward.
In Florida, Millions of baby boomer, retired Republicans in their 60s-80s will die off over the next 10-15 years.
Add to that the million or so felons (nearly 650,000 of them black), and based on history of AA votes (trump got less than 10%), most of those people will vote dem.
In Texas, more and more coastal transplants continue to migrate to the big cities HOU, SA, DAL, AUS and they're slowly turning one of the deepest "deep red states" blue. No way in hell should a Democrat in Texas give a Republican such a tough fight like Beto did last night. Not in DEEP red Texas.
I wish the GOP scum like McConnell, Sessions, and Trump would be around to see it....but in the next 20 years as the boomers die off (over 62% of GOP voters are 55+), we may witness the death of the Republican party.
Problem with your scenario is that while older conservatives "die off," younger people age and become more conservative because of their engagement with the real world.
Problem with your scenario is that while older conservatives "die off," younger people age and become more conservative because of their engagement with the real world.
Yup, once all these young liberal minds realize that the world doesn't work the way they hope & never will they'll realize they have to vote differently.
I used to vote Democrat when I was in my 18-25 range. Then I realized voting Democrat doesn't make my life better. I can understand why some people vote Democrat & if they have a good reason I respect there decision. But for me it just doesn't make sense. I'm good with my money. I don't need government assistance of any kind. I make smart decisions in my life. And lastly, why do I want to vote for a party that tries to make me feel bad for the color of my skin.
Florida ended up being one of the best results today for republicans but it may have been the last time they see red and this time it may not come back after ammendment 4th pass https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_Amen...itiative_(2018) this is really bad for the GOP even if Trumps approval is a net positive there i don´t see how he wins Florida in 2020 now with a big bunch of these votes almost certainly going DEM..
Then there is Texas.. There are some factors that make me think that it will turn blue by 2024 and this will probably change US politics forever because with current trends it will not come back... California "refugees" keep running away from California to go to places like Austin in Texas and then vote for the same policies that made them leave Cali.. Demographics of course have a huge impact, and Trump/Republicans will have to turn the hispanic vote for their side somehow (which would be kinda logical since culturally hispanics lean conservative) but it´s gonna be difficult because unlike the "white vote" in which we see people voting according to their ideals, minorities keep voting with a "tribal" mindset even when the economy is booming so it´s difficult to know what to do from a republican perspective but something most be done to reverse trends.
Their governor will gerrymander them another win in 2020.
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