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Two national polls released today. Biden up by 8 or 20 over Sanders. Then Harris and Warren tied in both. Buttigieg 5th in both.
Still a ways to go I think Biden will lose some support and Harris, Warren and Buttigieg will rise some more. Sanders will remain close to where he is at don’t think he will gain more nor lose his supporters.
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Originally Posted by NW Crow
Two national polls released today. Biden up by 8 or 20 over Sanders. Then Harris and Warren tied in both. Buttigieg 5th in both.
Biden's polls bump seems to be receding , but that could be because the Harris poll from this week polls 2,000 more people than the one from 3 weeks ago.
Emerson college was also the last poll to have Bernie in the lead, it now has Biden up by 8.
I wouldnt see either as a great sign for Bernie. Especially since he destroyed Hillary in New Hampshire, but is in a tight race with Biden there, that shouldnt be happening. Bernie's best poll in New Hampshire has him at 30, which mirrors national polls that have him around half strength vs 2016 .
I too think we are going to see Biden's poll numbers dive in the next few weeks or months. As for Bernie, I ta I am guessing his days of glory are about over.
Harris is tied for her lowest polling percent in Iowa for the last 8 months. Her 5% is a bit more than 25% of what she at her peak to date in late January.
O'Rourke at 3% in Iowa is the lowest he has polled since he was included in the polls. Same for Booker at 2%?.
Warren is above her average in Iowa but near the bottom of her history in NH. I guess she is making a big push in Iowa, But could she survive a 4th place finish in NH? I guess she wants to get better than the 4th place in Iowa she currently has before that.
In NH Buttigieg is at 9%. Barely half of his peak a month ago.
Booker is basically at his NH low and O'Rourke tied his.
Klobuchar has 4% in Iowa, 2% in NH.
If folks stay at their current polling numbers, only 9 candidates are expected to get 2% or more of the vote in Iowa or NH. It could change: but if you don't get 2% in one of these states, imo you probably should drop out. If you don't get at least 5% in a Super Tuesday state you probably should drop out. That could cut it to 6 or less. Maybe the standard should be higher. 5% average in Super Tuesday states or even 8% or more.
Will anyone really have a chance to win if they don't get at least a 4th place in the early states of Iowa, NH, NV and SC? Probably not. But strange things can happen. If it did come down to essentially requiring this level of early results; at this point it would seem to point to an eventual smaller race between Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg and Warren. If so, it would suggest that the 25% currently polling for the other candidates would eventually have reason to consider shifting to another candidate. If ALL that support went to Biden, he'd win. If ALL that support went to anyone else they still might not have enough support to win on first ballot, though it is possible. ALL of that support is unlikely to go to one candidate. Current polling suggests most of it is likely to go to Biden. So right now it looks most likely to go for Biden. Unless he blows it. If he does, it will be pretty open. If not Biden, the odds of a brokered convention rise dramatically unless someone just gets on a real hot streak.
Typically you have to win multiple states on Super Tuesday to be taken very seriously after that. Maybe you could still look viable with one first and a handful of seconds. If you can't get at least some thirds, your media coverage and financial support will likely diminish. If can't get any 3rds, you are probably cooked.
Right now Harris is polling at a level that would produce some 3rd place finishes on Super Tuesday. Maybe a win or second in California but not expected anywhere else. She is currently expected to have more 4ths than 3rds and may do worse than 4th in a lot of places.
Buttigieg's current polling suggest one 3rd place in Virginia and 4th or worse in the other states.
Warren is currently expected to finish 3rd in Massachusetts and 4th or worse in the other states.
One of more of these 3 mid-tier candidates may rapidly lose support after Super Tuesday. Their support will probably go to whoever are the real top 3, or top 2 if no one else is even close.
Of course, lots could change.
Of the candidates currently outside the top 4-6, it would not take that much to happen to jump up to 3rd or 4th. Nobody is really showing signs of it happening anytime soon. But there is a good chance it will happen again at some point, even if only temporary.
Two more polls out today. Not much change. Biden in mid to upper 30s, 2-1 on Sanders. Warren up to 13% in one poll, at 9% in other. If she moves up a bit more, she could start to challenge Sanders for 2nd. That would change the race. Still neck n neck with Harris in the other poll and most others. That competition isn't over yet. The votes for the women candidates consolidating is one of the few ways Biden gets beat. Probably the most likely way. Buttigieg is for the moment settled in 5th place. O'Rourke and Booker 6th and 7th. Still there but not looking like they will find a way up.
As if GE didn't prep Reagan for elective office for the masses to ratify. And Reagan choose Bush or elements behind Reagan choose Bush. And Bush lead to Bush 2 And Cheney. The corporate leaders and the rich behind the Republican party perfected the art of picking Republican Presidential candidates for about 50 years from around 1880 - 1930. Until the Great Depression broke a lot of the public trust for them.
Status:
"everybody getting reported now.."
(set 24 days ago)
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,558 posts, read 16,548,014 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW Crow
Two more polls out today. Not much change. Biden in mid to upper 30s, 2-1 on Sanders. Warren up to 13% in one poll, at 9% in other. If she moves up a bit more, she could start to challenge Sanders for 2nd. That would change the race. Still neck n neck with Harris in the other poll and most others. That competition isn't over yet. The votes for the women candidates consolidating is one of the few ways Biden gets beat. Probably the most likely way. Buttigieg is for the moment settled in 5th place. O'Rourke and Booker 6th and 7th. Still there but not looking like they will find a way up.
I believe you need 15% to get delegates in every state
So getting 10% in Iowa wont do it. Especially at the local caucus and then county conventions.
the caucuses will reorganize until they get a clear winner, and at that point, only 5 to 6 people can get delegates.
I actually think Biden, Buttigieg and Warren will all get more delegates than Bernie from Iowa. With Harris as a close 5th. And no one else getting close.
Warren seem to consistently be #1 or 2 in Iowa favorability
Warren is under polling her popularity among Democrats. I genuinely think a lot of undecideds break her way. And in the places where Biden or Bernie falter, she will pick up their votes.
Yeah she is doing well at the moment and may be headed to even better. The biggest drag on her support is the electability argument, made in some previous polls. The Fox poll from last Friday had Biden over Trump by 11 points, Sanders by 5, Warren by 3, Harris by 1 and Buttgieg tied. Earlier polls had her behind Trump, so it is moving in right direction. But it would be desirable for the nominee to be the strongest match-up candidate or at least stronger than a few points. Oftentimes the last minute break is to the Republican.
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