Unclear is what comes next. "It's bad for Obama" doesn't quite sum it up. Possible scenarios for Democrats still range from "1994" to "actually pretty OK."
Worst case scenario—and probably least likely—Brown's 41st vote in the Senate destroys health care reform and gridlocks the rest of Obama's agenda, from regulatory reform to cap-and-trade. Brown's vote might not even be necessary: Moderate Democrats, seeing the vote in Massachusetts as a referendum on health care reform, could bail even without Republicans filibustering. (Sen. Evan Bayh has already signaled his concern.) Some Democrats might even retire to avoid humiliation in 2010, while Democrats who stay and fight go down under a populist wave.
More likely, Democrats make health care work. They still have options: Pass the Senate bill in the House and send it directly to the president's desk. Or scrap all the changes to the Senate bill except for funding provisions, and pass those using the reconciliation process, which requires a bare majority rather than 60 votes. They might not even need to delay seating Brown. Democrats may still have trouble passing other legislation. But Brown probably wouldn't be the be-all-end-all obstructionist his fans think. He could well be in the Olympia Snowe mold rather than the Mitch McConnell mold. Not cooperative, exactly, but persuadable.
Meanwhile, passing health reform could help pull Democrats out of their Bay State depression and give them a major talking point on the campaign trail in 2010. (This assumes that current opposition to the bill will diminish once people actually start benefiting from it, as when Congress first passed Medicare.)
Expecting anything more seems overly optimistic for Dems. But as Brown's victory showed, a lot can change in two weeks. Even more can change in the next 10 months.
What Scott Brown's victory in Massachusetts does and doesn't mean. - By Christopher Beam - Slate Magazine
Republicans are claiming a national victory, after dumping half a million dollars into the race. Democrats are claiming Coakley didn't do enough.
It doesn't mean anything, really.
Scott Brown told voters that he would stop the current healthcare reform. Thats simply not true. The Senate can pass a reconciliation bill, avoiding a filibuster. The house can simply pass the Senate plan, and send it directly to President Obama.
As the article I posted previously says, passing a healthcare reform bill, in a congress they don't fully control, will be a good stump talking tool.
That, coupled with the fact that healthcare was the MOST liberal thing Obama was trying to pass.
Cap and trade has some Republican support, unlike healthcare. Most of the other things Obama laid out on his agenda are also more middle of the road ideas.
Another thing Brown lied about, how is he going to "bring terrorists to justice"? The Executive branch is in charge of enforcing laws, not Congress. One Senator, and a minority party isn't going to keep Guantanamo open. They also aren't going to keep terrorists from being tried in federal court either. So exactly what he is talking about.
I understand that a Republican winning in Massachusetts is a big deal. But its not really the game changer people are making it out to be. Obama loosing his third endorsed candidate isn't that big of a deal either. He didn't come in until three days ago. Not like thats going to make a huge difference in voters minds at that point.
Don't believe me, you go to Boston, and insult the Red Sox. See how long it is before you get a beat down.
Oh, and if Republicans think the next election is going to be like this, they probably are wrong. This kind of election, historically, makes the base of the party that lost come out strong.
Republicans turned this from a state election, to a national election. Dems will be spending more money now, they'll be ready. This wasn't a wake up, it was a shot across the bow. The problem with warning your enemies, is that they dig in and are ready.
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