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The rains were well forecast and the waters rising was also projected (on the day of the event). People were talking about potentially catastrophic flooding already early on Wednesday (as there had been heavy rains on Tuesday and more forecast for Wednesday). There are forecast models for local flooding used by the authorities, and from what I understand those numbers looked dangerous. Many of these places have terrain that's very much vulnerable to flash flooding, so the potential risk was almost certainly known to local first responders and many residents.
And yet we have large fatality counts. It raises a lot of questions - how quickly and widely was the information provided by forecasters given to local authorities? What actions were taken to inform and warn the population? Was the threat underestimated based on preconceived notions of how high water could feasibly go in the area?
If you hear that a dozen patients drowned in an assisted living facility whose ground floor was completely flooded then you know that people must have felt pretty secure indoors and unaware of any serious threat (even if you think flood water was only going to rise to the knee level you wouldn't just leave those patients to their own devices).
The largest number of tornadoes in the world is formed in North America - about 1000 a year. ... According to official figures, tornadoes are not a threat in Russia - no more than two tornadoes occur the country in a year.
There was a disastrous tornadoes in 1904 - modern scientists rate the 1904 tornadoes at F2–F3 in the Fujita scale. The June 29, 1904 Moscow tornado was only one of three disastrous tornadoes that occurred in central Russia in recorded history.
Other tornadoes were recorded in 1945 in Moscow and in 1951, 1956, 1970, 1971, 1984 (during the tornado outbreak of 9 June), 1987, 1994, and 1997 in Moscow Oblast 100 km south-east from Moscow (near Zaraysk). Another was seen in June 2009 near Sergiyev Posad. So, in recent years it's happening more often. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1904_Moscow_tornado
The number of emergency situations caused by storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, or twisters in Russia increased significantly in the latest year observed. There were 20 disasters of that type in the country in 2020, compared to two catastrophes recorded in the previous year. https://www.statista.com/statistics/...does-twisters/
The largest number of tornadoes in the world is formed in North America - about 1000 a year. ... According to official figures, tornadoes are not a threat in Russia - no more than two tornadoes occur the country in a year.
There was a disastrous tornadoes in 1904 - modern scientists rate the 1904 tornadoes at F2–F3 in the Fujita scale. The June 29, 1904 Moscow tornado was only one of three disastrous tornadoes that occurred in central Russia in recorded history.
Other tornadoes were recorded in 1945 in Moscow and in 1951, 1956, 1970, 1971, 1984 (during the tornado outbreak of 9 June), 1987, 1994, and 1997 in Moscow Oblast 100 km south-east from Moscow (near Zaraysk). Another was seen in June 2009 near Sergiyev Posad. So, in recent years it's happening more often. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1904_Moscow_tornado
The number of emergency situations caused by storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, or twisters in Russia increased significantly in the latest year observed. There were 20 disasters of that type in the country in 2020, compared to two catastrophes recorded in the previous year. https://www.statista.com/statistics/...does-twisters/
El, the point being is not whether the tornadoes are a "threat in Russia," but I've never seen "tornado" in Moscow, never heard of it all my life that I lived there.
I always thought that it's something that exists only in US or some other *exotic places.*
Now I am looking at some latest videos from Moscow, and oh my...
Never seen anything like that - only strong thunderstorms, that's all.
So let's ask Northern Europeans here, Germans in particular ( looking at the images above. )
I assume you've had floods before.
But could you imagine ( have you ever heard) of anything like this in those areas?
The biggest floods I remember was the Oder floods back in 97 though the ones in 02 were pretty bad too. But those were different as they weren't really flash floods following intense storms like these ones.
The rains were well forecast and the waters rising was also projected (on the day of the event). People were talking about potentially catastrophic flooding already early on Wednesday (as there had been heavy rains on Tuesday and more forecast for Wednesday). There are forecast models for local flooding used by the authorities, and from what I understand those numbers looked dangerous. Many of these places have terrain that's very much vulnerable to flash flooding, so the potential risk was almost certainly known to local first responders and many residents.
And yet we have large fatality counts. It raises a lot of questions - how quickly and widely was the information provided by forecasters given to local authorities? What actions were taken to inform and warn the population? Was the threat underestimated based on preconceived notions of how high water could feasibly go in the area?
If you hear that a dozen patients drowned in an assisted living facility whose ground floor was completely flooded then you know that people must have felt pretty secure indoors and unaware of any serious threat (even if you think flood water was only going to rise to the knee level you wouldn't just leave those patients to their own devices).
Judging by the picture of devastation, the "forecasters" were not projecting this turn of events at all.
Another thing - looks like everything happened so quickly ( not only sudden,) that people simply didn't have time to react.
Now the firemen are saying that those over thousand people still unaccounted for in Germany are hopefully alive - they simply can't get in touch with anyone, since all means of communications are disrupted at this point.
we also have tornadoes and floods in my region. Actually I wonder when it will happen next
I think it is time that European countries build drainage systems like Asian countries. Climate change means everyone needs to brace for the worst. This kind of precipitation (100-150 litre/m2 in 24 hours) wouldn't even make the news here. It is obvious that European countries are used to the temperate climate that everyone is ill-prepared for natural disasters.
For your reference, it is often close to that number in an hour when a storm hits around here. The worst typhoons could bring more than 2000 litre/m2 of rain in 24 hours.
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How terrifying!
