11-02-2018, 07:31 PM
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Reputation: 14050
Quote:
Originally Posted by
bmw335xi
The early voting line in Dr. Phillips (Orlando) was maybe 5 people long when I went the other day. I was in and out in about 5-10 minutes. A lazy person won't vote even if they were given 2 months. Nonetheless, I support extending the early voting period, but I wouldn't want it too early where people vote before the first debate even takes place.
The numbers, I think, are showing record early voting for midterms.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/pol...221015740.html
"It’s a midterm like no other in modern times in Florida. Four million votes in hand four days before the election — that has never happened in a midterm.
Among the many unanswered questions: Are independents favoring Democrats as polls suggest? Will there be a weekend surge in early voting, and will it favor Democrats? Will Republicans dominate in precinct voting on Election Day, as they did in 2014 and 2016?"
Obviously many people are less than lazy...as I'm sure many millions more will vote this weekend and then Tuesday.
11-02-2018, 07:49 PM
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Reputation: 19972
The numbers from I've seen are close to 2016 numbers. Normally the party in charge loses seats during midterms. It seems the recent events has solidified the Senate for Republicans and the House for Democrats.
11-03-2018, 07:28 AM
20,955 posts, read
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Reputation: 14050
Quote:
Originally Posted by
bmw335xi
The numbers from I've seen are close to 2016 numbers. Normally the party in charge loses seats during midterms. It seems the recent events has solidified the Senate for Republicans and the House for Democrats.
The Senate was never in play based on any odds.
The tale is going to be in certain Senate seats (in some Red states AND in some Trump states) and in the House and very much in Gov. races.
The total tale (total number of votes divided by which party the votes were for) will tell us something of the feeling out there.
Also, the predictions are for many millions (tens of millions) of Americans to be in states with Democratic Governors after this election. If we are to be honest with ourselves, we know that when a party has state control they have a great benefit in setting up maps, voting rights, purging the rolls, etc - that is, we wouldn't have had GWB if his bro wasn't Gov. of Florida and that's a fact.
Does this mean much beyond the midterms? IMHO, no. But I like to look at reality at the moment and leave the future to future events.
Florida, since we are on that forum, has been getting more and more purple and has historically had a 4-5% advantage for Republicans. When that is whittled down to 1 or 2, the independents call the tune. Being as Florida went for Obama, if it goes for another Dem for major office that is a big deal in the current environment and goes 100% against what some say (no one votes dem any more, etc.)...
11-03-2018, 11:39 AM
Location: Ubique
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Reputation: 2822
Although global warming is a very important issue fr FL voters this election cycle, healthcare is the most important issue for them. Btw, from all 50 states FL has the most people on Obamacare. Obamacare has a good approval rating in FL -- 49% approve, 38% do not approve.
Yet, according to this Vox Poll, Ricky leads Nelson by 5 points.
Latest survey gives Rick Scott 5-point lead over Bill Nelson - Florida Politics
What gives?
11-03-2018, 01:30 PM
24,396 posts, read
26,946,756 times
Reputation: 19972
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Henry10
Although global warming is a very important issue fr FL voters this election cycle, healthcare is the most important issue for them. Btw, from all 50 states FL has the most people on Obamacare. Obamacare has a good approval rating in FL -- 49% approve, 38% do not approve.
Yet, according to this Vox Poll, Ricky leads Nelson by 5 points.
Latest survey gives Rick Scott 5-point lead over Bill Nelson - Florida Politics
What gives?
Democrats at least on a national level have gone crazy that’s why. It’s why i voted for Scott. I did vote for Gillum because he is running for governor, but I would not vote Democrat in this day and age in the Senate or house until they stop pandering for votes.
11-03-2018, 01:35 PM
20,955 posts, read
8,670,317 times
Reputation: 14050
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Henry10
Although global warming is a very important issue fr FL voters this election cycle, healthcare is the most important issue for them. Btw, from all 50 states FL has the most people on Obamacare. Obamacare has a good approval rating in FL -- 49% approve, 38% do not approve.
Yet, according to this Vox Poll, Ricky leads Nelson by 5 points.
Latest survey gives Rick Scott 5-point lead over Bill Nelson - Florida Politics
What gives?
What probably gives is the specific web site you picked and a single poll.
At this very moment the odds are 68% for Nelsom. Go to:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...idterms-header
and hover over Florida.
11-03-2018, 02:29 PM
Location: Ubique
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
craigiri
What probably gives is the specific web site you picked and a single poll.
No conspiracy; that’s the latest poll. Nelson is also the incumbent.
11-03-2018, 05:11 PM
20,955 posts, read
8,670,317 times
Reputation: 14050
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Henry10
No conspiracy; that’s the latest poll. Nelson is also the incumbent.
No conspiracy needed - rather always looking for accuracy.
Some point to a poll that says Trump is supported by 50% of African Americans. The true number is 12%, yet there is a poll that people point to.
All intelligence, human or computer, does better by using larger numbers of inputs and assigning weights to them. That's how odds work and why bookies and Las Vegas (Trump aside) rarely go broke. The House is the House.
The house says 2/3 for Nelson. If there are bets being taken those are the odds. That doesn't mean he will win....in fact, many candidates with small chances (on both sides) will win.
I think we can say that the Florida Gov and Senate could both be said to be "in play"....the political reports call it "lean Dem" right at the moment, but that can change.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...lorida/#deluxe
Last edited by craigiri; 11-03-2018 at 05:34 PM ..
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Housing units in structures - 1, detached (%)
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Housing units in structures - 2 (%)
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Housing units in structures - 50 or more (%)
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Means of transportation to work - Carpooled (%)
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Most Common Industries - Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining (%)
Most Common Industries - Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting (%)
Most Common Industries - Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (%)
Most Common Industries - Construction (%)
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Most Common Industries - Professional, scientific, and technical services (%)
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Most Common Industries - Arts, entertainment, and recreation (%)
Most Common Industries - Accommodation and food services (%)
Most Common Industries - Other services, except public administration (%)
Most Common Industries - Public administration (%)
Occupation diversity
Most Common Occupations - Management, business, science, and arts occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Management, business, and financial occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Management occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Business and financial operations occupations (%)
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Most Common Occupations - Computer and mathematical occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Architecture and engineering occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Life, physical, and social science occupations (%)
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Most Common Occupations - Education, training, and library occupations (%)
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Most Common Occupations - Healthcare support occupations (%)
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Most Common Occupations - Fire fighting and prevention, and other protective service workers including supervisors (%)
Most Common Occupations - Law enforcement workers including supervisors (%)
Most Common Occupations - Food preparation and serving related occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Personal care and service occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Sales and office occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Sales and related occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Office and administrative support occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Construction and extraction occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Production, transportation, and material moving occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Production occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Transportation occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Material moving occupations (%)
People in Group quarters - Institutionalized population (%)
People in Group quarters - Correctional institutions (%)
People in Group quarters - Federal prisons and detention centers (%)
People in Group quarters - Halfway houses (%)
People in Group quarters - Local jails and other confinement facilities (including police lockups) (%)
People in Group quarters - Military disciplinary barracks (%)
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People in Group quarters - Hospitals/wards, hospices, and schools for the handicapped (%)
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People in Group quarters - On base (%)
People in Group quarters - Barracks, unaccompanied personnel housing (UPH), (Enlisted/Officer), ;and similar group living quarters for military personnel (%)
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Class of Workers - Employee of private company (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed in own incorporated business (%)
Class of Workers - Private not-for-profit wage and salary workers (%)
Class of Workers - Local government workers (%)
Class of Workers - State government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Federal government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business and Unpaid family workers (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - No fuel used (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - No fuel used (%)
Armed forces status - In Armed Forces (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Veteran (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Nonveteran (%)
Fatal accidents locations in years 2005-2021
Fatal accidents locations in 2005
Fatal accidents locations in 2006
Fatal accidents locations in 2007
Fatal accidents locations in 2008
Fatal accidents locations in 2009
Fatal accidents locations in 2010
Fatal accidents locations in 2011
Fatal accidents locations in 2012
Fatal accidents locations in 2013
Fatal accidents locations in 2014
Fatal accidents locations in 2015
Fatal accidents locations in 2016
Fatal accidents locations in 2017
Fatal accidents locations in 2018
Fatal accidents locations in 2019
Fatal accidents locations in 2020
Fatal accidents locations in 2021
Alcohol use - People drinking some alcohol every month (%)
Alcohol use - People not drinking at all (%)
Alcohol use - Average days/month drinking alcohol
Alcohol use - Average drinks/week
Alcohol use - Average days/year people drink much
Audiometry - Average condition of hearing (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear a whisper from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear normal voice from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - Ears ringing, roaring, buzzing (%)
Audiometry - Had a job exposure to loud noise (%)
Audiometry - Had off-work exposure to loud noise (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high blood pressure (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Checking blood pressure at home (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Frequently checking blood cholesterol (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high cholesterol level (%)
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at supermarket/grocery store
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at other stores
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on eating out
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on carryout/delivered foods
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at supermarket/grocery store (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at other stores (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on eating out (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on carryout/delivered foods (%)
Current Health Status - General health condition (%)
Current Health Status - Blood donors (%)
Current Health Status - Has blood ever tested for HIV virus (%)
Current Health Status - Left-handed people (%)
Dermatology - People using sunscreen (%)
Diabetes - Diabetics (%)
Diabetes - Had a blood test for high blood sugar (%)
Diabetes - People taking insulin (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Diet health (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Milk product consumption (# of products/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals not home prepared (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals from fast food or pizza place (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Ready-to-eat foods (#/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Frozen meals/pizza (#/month)
Drug Use - People that ever used marijuana or hashish (%)
Drug Use - Ever used hard drugs (%)
Drug Use - Ever used any form of cocaine (%)
Drug Use - Ever used heroin (%)
Drug Use - Ever used methamphetamine (%)
Health Insurance - People covered by health insurance (%)
Kidney Conditions-Urology - Avg. # of times urinating at night
Medical Conditions - People with asthma (%)
Medical Conditions - People with anemia (%)
Medical Conditions - People with psoriasis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with overweight (%)
Medical Conditions - Elderly people having difficulties in thinking or remembering (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever received blood transfusion (%)
Medical Conditions - People having trouble seeing even with glass/contacts (%)
Medical Conditions - People with arthritis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with gout (%)
Medical Conditions - People with congestive heart failure (%)
Medical Conditions - People with coronary heart disease (%)
Medical Conditions - People with angina pectoris (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had heart attack (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had stroke (%)
Medical Conditions - People with emphysema (%)
Medical Conditions - People with thyroid problem (%)
Medical Conditions - People with chronic bronchitis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with any liver condition (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had cancer or malignancy (%)
Mental Health - People who have little interest in doing things (%)
Mental Health - People feeling down, depressed, or hopeless (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble sleeping or sleeping too much (%)
Mental Health - People feeling tired or having little energy (%)
Mental Health - People with poor appetite or overeating (%)
Mental Health - People feeling bad about themself (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble concentrating on things (%)
Mental Health - People moving or speaking slowly or too fast (%)
Mental Health - People having thoughts they would be better off dead (%)
Oral Health - Average years since last visit a dentist
Oral Health - People embarrassed because of mouth (%)
Oral Health - People with gum disease (%)
Oral Health - General health of teeth and gums (%)
Oral Health - Average days a week using dental floss/device
Oral Health - Average days a week using mouthwash for dental problem
Oral Health - Average number of teeth
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to control insects (%)
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to kill weeds (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People walking or bicycling (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - Average hours a day doing sedentary activities
Physical Activity - Average hours a day watching TV or videos
Physical Activity - Average hours a day using computer
Physical Functioning - People having limitations keeping them from working (%)
Physical Functioning - People limited in amount of work they can do (%)
Physical Functioning - People that need special equipment to walk (%)
Physical Functioning - People experiencing confusion/memory problems (%)
Physical Functioning - People requiring special healthcare equipment (%)
Prescription Medications - Average number of prescription medicines taking
Preventive Aspirin Use - Adults 40+ taking low-dose aspirin (%)
Reproductive Health - Vaginal deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Cesarean deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Deliveries resulted in a live birth (%)
Reproductive Health - Pregnancies resulted in a delivery (%)
Reproductive Health - Women breastfeeding newborns (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had a hysterectomy (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had both ovaries removed (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever taken birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women taking birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used Depo-Provera or injectables (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used female hormones (%)
Sexual Behavior - People 18+ that ever had sex (vaginal, anal, or oral) (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had anal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had any sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had anal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had any kind of sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first had sex
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female vaginal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a woman (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of woman performed oral sex on in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male anal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a man (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male oral sex partners in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - People using protection when performing oral sex (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of times people have vaginal or anal sex a year
Sexual Behavior - People having sex without condom (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male vaginal sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Circumcised males 18+ (%)
Sleep Disorders - Average hours sleeping at night
Sleep Disorders - People that has trouble sleeping (%)
Smoking-Cigarette Use - People smoking cigarettes (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with smell (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with taste (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had wisdom teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had tonsils teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a loss of consciousness because of a head injury (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a broken nose or other serious injury to face or skull (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had two or more sinus infections (%)
Weight - Average height (inches)
Weight - Average weight (pounds)
Weight - Average BMI
Weight - People that are obese (%)
Weight - People that ever were obese (%)
Weight - People trying to lose weight (%)
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Ocean warming threatens global oxygen production
