[Obrero]

Originally Posted by kort677

themselves!

one big flaw in their arguments is that they are treating FLA as one market, and realistically you can't do that.
real estate is a very local business, and while some localities are "depressed" others are just humming along steadily and a very few others are still gaining value.
Bottom line: take whatever you read here with a big grain of salt

Where in Fl do you think real estate is just humming along steadily and where is gaining value? Please let us know.

[Obrero]

Originally Posted by JimKing

Prices will go below 2000 + 3%/year appreciation if you wait a few years.

The long term fundamentals say prices will eventually drop below 2000 prices...despite what the Realty industry tells you.

Spot on. My point exactly.

[kort677]

Originally Posted by Jammie

What area of Florida is "humming along"?

miami, orlando, jacksonville

[LingLing]

Originally Posted by kort677

miami, orlando, jacksonville

How about Palm Beach County? See the link
PBC property values rise just 5.2 percent (broken link)

Frankly, I don't know how they came up the number.

[Audacious]

Originally Posted by kort677

miami, orlando, jacksonville

Also North Port and the Port Charlotte area. Still lots of inventory but it is falling at a better rate.
8 mos ago new construction could be bought for 160K not any more those deals are OVER, the spec builders got burned, dumped inventory, took their lumps and are now build to contract only. Next best deal for the same type of house 2 years old is about 190K. This NOT to say that all is well but it is turning around. Sooner or later the public will realize it and then the market will approach balance. As I mentioned before the market HAS and ALWAYS will determine value and where the tops and bottoms are.
If that house that was 160K is now over 190K does that mean all prices went up, NO. It means that it is beginning to stabilize. It is the first step. The market went up way too fast in 36 mos. 30% gains per year were not sustainable. It has now fallen about 35% in 24 mos. A rather hard and fast correction. I am not speaking for all of Fl just South Sarasota.

Another point of interest, I do not claim to be the sharpest pencil in the box and do not believe that anyone else here is either. However, Lowes, Target, Macy's, Publix all major Corps' who have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on research re demogrpahics, population trends etc etc seem to be putting their money in south county. There is a 300,000 SF mall being built with other national retailers and high end restaurants coming to town. The Stae of FL is already widening bridges to accomodate the widening of I 75. Why do you think these big outfits are doing this when EVERYBODY knows that RE armageddon is just around the corner? Could it be that all these engineers and market analysist are dead wrong and everybody else is right???

These people are paid to figure out this sort of thing, they are nobodys' fool, have no agenda other than trying to figure out where the money is going to, will the demographics support their decision and when should they get in before everyone else figures it out. Migration inward, growing population, affordable housing, decent jobs
Natural Foods makes Sarasota move official
and a multitude of other factors that most of us cannot even understand much less weigh into an equation or time series analysis. The doom & gloomers, naysayers et al who believe the economy will forever recede, that housing costs will back to 7 years ago are just wishing and hoping for something that will never happen. Sorry guys that's the real world. by the way PUHLEASE do not post 1000 articles saying otherwise. I can post a thousand more to support my position. It's pointless. I'm just a little tired of all the self appointed/annointed prophets out there. There is only one prophet re real estate THE MARKET ! and if you can be quiet for a little bit you will hear it talking. Learn from history, this is not the first RE slowdown or meltdown or bubbleburst or whatever you want to call it. There have been plenty over the last 30 years and where did the price of housing go over the last 30 years?????? if you can't answer that you should be living with your parents.

Wow, I know this one is gonna get clobbered!

[Hondax]

I hope you are right Audacious. That way it will take some pressure off the area I'm interested in moving to.

[121804]

Originally Posted by Audacious

Also North Port and the Port Charlotte area. Still lots of inventory but it is falling at a better rate.
8 mos ago new construction could be bought for 160K not any more those deals are OVER, the spec builders got burned, dumped inventory, took their lumps and are now build to contract only. Next best deal for the same type of house 2 years old is about 190K. This NOT to say that all is well but it is turning around. Sooner or later the public will realize it and then the market will approach balance. As I mentioned before the market HAS and ALWAYS will determine value and where the tops and bottoms are.
If that house that was 160K is now over 190K does that mean all prices went up, NO. It means that it is beginning to stabilize. It is the first step. The market went up way too fast in 36 mos. 30% gains per year were not sustainable. It has now fallen about 35% in 24 mos. A rather hard and fast correction. I am not speaking for all of Fl just South Sarasota.

Another point of interest, I do not claim to be the sharpest pencil in the box and do not believe that anyone else here is either. However, Lowes, Target, Macy's, Publix all major Corps' who have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on research re demogrpahics, population trends etc etc seem to be putting their money in south county. There is a 300,000 SF mall being built with other national retailers and high end restaurants coming to town. The Stae of FL is already widening bridges to accomodate the widening of I 75. Why do you think these big outfits are doing this when EVERYBODY knows that RE armageddon is just around the corner? Could it be that all these engineers and market analysist are dead wrong and everybody else is right???

These people are paid to figure out this sort of thing, they are nobodys' fool, have no agenda other than trying to figure out where the money is going to, will the demographics support their decision and when should they get in before everyone else figures it out. Migration inward, growing population, affordable housing, decent jobs
Natural Foods makes Sarasota move official
and a multitude of other factors that most of us cannot even understand much less weigh into an equation or time series analysis. The doom & gloomers, naysayers et al who believe the economy will forever recede, that housing costs will back to 7 years ago are just wishing and hoping for something that will never happen. Sorry guys that's the real world. by the way PUHLEASE do not post 1000 articles saying otherwise. I can post a thousand more to support my position. It's pointless. I'm just a little tired of all the self appointed/annointed prophets out there. There is only one prophet re real estate THE MARKET ! and if you can be quiet for a little bit you will hear it talking. Learn from history, this is not the first RE slowdown or meltdown or bubbleburst or whatever you want to call it. There have been plenty over the last 30 years and where did the price of housing go over the last 30 years?????? if you can't answer that you should be living with your parents.

Wow, I know this one is gonna get clobbered!

History repeats itself. This sort of thing is going to happen again; somewhere else at some other time, etc. NO ONE has the answer.
Florida is a great example of greed, but big business isn't listening. Remember, the big builders have stock holders who want to see $$ now and 20 years down the road, be it Florida or somewhere else. This is NOT a Florida specific problem, though Florida has surely helped create the problem. Now, existing home sellers. I don't know. It's a phase in the RE world right now. If one HAS to sell, a little research & common sense could tell them what to do.

No one has mentioned China & its role in US mortgage rates. There are some equity firms based in China that are going to effect rates in the near future. There is WAY more to the RE market than basic supply & demand IMO.

Everyone has their 2 cents & there is a lot to be said for one side of the argument compared to the other. I could care less about for the RE #101articles that state the same thing over & over again. The point is clear for that point. Got it, thanks. After awhile, can only beat a dead horse so long.

We are in Charlotte County. Things are moving, slowly, but they are moving. Charlotte County is not falling apart nor is it dante's inferno nor is it overrun with illegals nor is it that bad of a place. One can really find a decent priced home if they so desire. Who knows for sure if that price is at its lowest. Who? It doesn't hurt to wait, though, but it could also be sold. It just depends on the need. There is a lot of "commercial" activity in the forecast. It will be interesting to see how it pans out.

We are not buying for we are not staying nor if we were would be in Charlotte County for the next 7-10yrs to make a home purchase worthwhile.

IMO, individual buyer/seller has to figure out what is best for them & go with that. Gotta know the consequences that come along with buying a home. Gotta know the consequences that come with selling in about 50% of the US right now.

[nitroae23]

For anyone out there who thinks the federal reserve will help distressed h/o's by lowering interest rates better think again,Mr.Bernanke has restated correctly the feds policy is to keep inflation down,not prop the economy up,anyone who thinks otherwise should be reminded of the days when the fed had interest rates at 20%,not a typo,in order to tame inflation,which they did,at the cost of a massive recession,circa 1981-82, and a housing market that makes this one look like a walk in the park!

[Jammie]

Originally Posted by nitroae23

For anyone out there who thinks the federal reserve will help distressed h/o's by lowering interest rates better think again,Mr.Bernanke has restated correctly the feds policy is to keep inflation down,not prop the economy up,anyone who thinks otherwise should be reminded of the days when the fed had interest rates at 20%,not a typo,in order to tame inflation,which they did,at the cost of a massive recession,circa 1981-82, and a housing market that makes this one look like a walk in the park!

Oh yea, I remember those interest rates well. I needed a car and only had enough for a down payment on it. My interest rate was 19% and you can't imagine how many hours I worked extra just so I could get it paid off to avoid paying a fortune in interest.

[JimKing]

Utter, total nonsense. The vast majority of Florida real estate will fall at least another 50-60%. There were no fundamentals that supported a run up over the past 7 years. In fact, prices should have stayed flat, which would mean they would have decreased when adjusted for inflation.

You can rent houses everywhere for $1200-1500 that are on the market for $400,000. Houses that rent for that amount have sold for $150,000-200,000 through out the history of real estate.

This thing has so far to go down over the next 3-5 years it isn't even funny.