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Patience nychiefs....unfortunately this will take a long time to come down. If you look at Credit Suisse's Adjustable Rate Mortgage Reset Schedule available on many websites, you will see the majority of mortgages have not even reset yet. Momentum in price decreases will pick up eventually.
A year from now will be the time to buy again in some markets....but it might be more like 3 in other markets, depending on how long people stay delusional.
1-3 years is not a long wait to save a ton of money on a house.
The Spring Home-Selling Season Came To A Dismal End
The Florida realtors have the May numbers out. “Statewide sales of existing single-family homes in Florida totaled 12,607 in May and were more in line with activity in May 2002, prior to the housing boom years, than the May 2006 figures of 19,072 homes sold for a 34 percent decrease in the year-to-year comparison, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.”
“Florida’s median sales price for existing single-family homes last month was $237,000; a year ago, it was $250,100 for a 5 percent decrease. Sales of existing condominiums in Florida also decreased last month, with a total of 4,090 condos sold statewide compared to 5,671 in May 2006 for a 28 percent decline, according to FAR.”
The Sun Sentinel. “The spring home-selling season came to a dismal end in South Florida last month.”
“Sales of existing homes plummeted 33 percent in Broward County from a year ago, while Palm Beach County saw sales slide 25 percent, the Florida Association of Realtors said Monday.”
“The market for existing condominiums in Broward also was down in May. Sales fell 29 percent from a year ago and the median price declined 5 percent to $202,600.”
The Naples News. “May housing sales figures released Monday paint an unsettling picture of the market both locally and around the state. The local statistics were punctuated by a 42 percent drop in the number of single-family home sales in May in Lee County as compared to May 2006, and a 29 percent decrease in the median price of a condominum in Lee County during the same timeframe.”
“The median price of a single-family home in Lee County was down 2 percent from May 2006, dropping from $286,500 to $281,500. The number of condo sales in Lee County was also way down from a year earlier, dipping 22 percent from the 250 that were sold in May 2006.”
The Naples News. “In Charlotte County, prices were down 12 percent from $213,400 to $186,900 and sales were off 39 percent from 387 to 235.”
“Complete information for Collier County was not available because the Naples Area Board of Realtors no longer reports its statistics to the state association.”
The Palm Beach Post. “Existing single-family homes sales for May fell 25 percent in Palm Beach County, to 741 from 982 in May 2006, the Florida Association of Realtors said today. The median price fell 1 percent, to $387,800 from $391,000 in May 2006, FAR said.”
“In The Treasure Coast, existing single-family home sales fell 39 percent, to 315 from 519 in May 2006, FAR said. The median price fell 9 percent, to $228,500 from $252,300 in May 2006, FAR said.”
“‘The wave of speculative investors seeking a quick profit appears to be gone, and now we have a more normal market, with buyers interested in investing in a personal dream and finding a home,’ said Norma Mirsky, president of the Palm Beach Board of Realtors.”"
A sonic boom waiting to happen, Gov. Charlie Crist calls it. A racehorse that’s been reined in. An engine that cannot run on all of its cylinders. His subject: Florida’s economy. The culprit: high property taxes.”
“So with a new, two-piece package through the legislature, Crist abandoned all restraint with his metaphorical flourishes last week.”
“‘I think it will fire up our economy. Florida is like a thoroughbred and…she’s been held back,’ he said moments after signing two new laws on the matter. ‘We’ll have an opportunity to get this engine going again, fire this baby up and make sure that this economy will not just boom, but have a sonic boom.’”
“Economists and real estate agents generally agree that the new constitutional amendment would, if adopted, spur considerable home-buying activity.”
“‘It’ll be an absolute boon to first-time home buyers,’ said Patricia Fitzgerald, a Jupiter real estate agent and secretary of the Florida Association of Realtors.’”
“A Palm Beach Post analysis of the proposal shows that buyers of a $150,000 home would save about $141, or 13 percent, off their total monthly mortgage and escrow payment under the new plan. The buyers of a $250,000 home would save $219 per month, with the amounts and percentages dwindling as the purchase price increases.”
“The rapid increases in prices have made the typical house unaffordable for the typical family in Florida, according to the report by the Shimberg Center for Affordable Housing at the University of Florida. The median household in Palm Beach County earned only 51 percent of the income needed to buy a median home there, according to the study.”
“So the main problem for many would-be home buyers, particularly in South Florida, where prices escalated the most, is a $350,000 or $400,000 house, not the taxes and insurance on that house, FSU’s Holcombe said.”
“‘Demographically, Florida is likely to become more like San Francisco,’ said Randall Holcombe, a Florida State University economics professor, describing how that city is closing schools because families with children cannot afford to live there. ‘Eventually, no one would be able to afford anything.’”
The Miami Herald. “Allan Bense, chairman of the Taxation and Budget Reform Commission, which is empowered once every 20 years to place tax and budget amendments on the November ballot, said that when the group meets again on Tuesday he will suggest they discuss Plan B: What to do if voters reject the amendment lawmakers have put on the Jan. 29 ballot.”
“The Florida Constitution requires the Taxation and Budget Reform Commission to convene in 2007 for the second time in Florida history, only 17 years after the first one met in 1990. But the coincidence of the panel meeting in a year when tax issues dominate the agenda is not lost on its members.”
“‘You cannot blame communists or the Trilateral Commission,’ said Carlos Lacasa, a commission member and former Miami state legislator. ‘The fact that the real estate bubble coincided with the timing of the commission was pure coincidence.’”
“Lacasa also believes that because the Legislature’s two-part property tax plan won’t solve the problem, the issue will ‘overshadow everything until it’s resolved.’”
The Herald Tribune. “The thousands of new homes in the works for the land east of Interstate 75 in Southwest Florida are providing ample opportunities for home builders. Even with the precipitous drop in new home construction around the region, a growing list of construction firms are moving into the region.”
“‘They follow the rooftops,’ said Jay Brady, executive director of the Gulf Coast Builders Exchange, a Sarasota-Manatee group of commercial builders, architects and engineers with 350 members.”
“‘We see enough opportunity to be a profitable organization, without a doubt,’ said Gregory F. Galmin, the Tower Group’s executive VP. ‘We are not here to put anyone out of business, but we will be aggressive and we will be knocking on our competitors’ doors.’”
The average price in Lee County has been increasing since February. We are actually on par with last year's prices at this time and they are still slowly increasing. Now areas within the county, such as Cape Coral, are still experiencing decreases. This is a totally subjective issue and therefor hard to judge. Being in my area, I would say prices are likely to start increasing again in the not so distant future. Maybe someone in a more hard hit area would disagree with me.
Like in when sally met harry I want whatever some of you posters are having…
I’m not a realtor just a 20 year homeowner in sunny lil SRQ…I bought my home in the right area of town at the right time…Mid 80’s for 87K…It was a fixer upper needed roof central ac, window units removed and siding resided, replumbed rewired etc … In 1999 it was appraised at 225K
After I remodeled my kitch and one bath it appraised out at 460 something in 2001
In 2004 it appraised out at 700 something, I had remodeled another bath and repainted in as well as out…
My neighbors house that they had done virtually nothing to since 1970 sold in 3/06 for 850K…It was bull dozed and 6300sq. foot ego shrine is currently being erected…They call this green housing for three people…LOL
My point is that many of us have not succumbed to using our house as an ATM…The reality is this >>> Yes there will be foreclosures due to the subprime lenders and borrowers…Yes it will affect areas of fl. Including parts of Sarasota… There are many that somehow did not understand negative amortization…Lets face it not all people are bright enough to correlate the negative in there as it related to their 2% interest rate…
The subprime will have an effect for several more years for sure nationwide…
Then you have folks like me…I have an area that it highly desired I know it and others know it too…Why then would I ever sell it below it’s value, they are not making land here in Sarasota anymore…I owe very lil on my home so yes it’s almost all equity… After reading all the yank posts in here I do understand, I even empathize with you all…Your mkt in ohio ny nj minn wis etc is in a bad slump and the subprime mkt isn’t going to help your price point stabilize…Yes the foreclosure deals will be all over fl. too. Probably not in the area you want to live though…
Florida has been and always will be a retirement dream for many of our winter friends why??? Cause paradise is awesome and it has never been cheap! Yes your folks bought here for under a 100 K back in the 70/80’s…That was not considered cheap then either…Cheap is how we got all those trailer communities, cheap is what created Nport port charlotte, Lehigh acres rotonda etc…… Those of us that have ridden out the slumps over the years know this to be true…We will never see prices of the 70’s and 80’s again anywhere in florida. What drove up our prices were the yanks retiring here bulldozing beautiful remodeled homes to build their dream retirement home near the water… Entire keys and inland neighborhoods experienced this during the 90’s and it still is happening though the pace has slowed the past few years…
My biggest concern for buyers as well as sellers is the likelihood of interest rates increasing…I can pluck down increments of 10-20K into 3 mth CD’s and get 7% today, right now…Interest rates are going up people get yourself ready…! When I bought my home they were around 13%...I had a arm years ago…I refied to fix rate in 2004…As did anyone that was intelligent…
Now if one does the math is it better to gamble on declining home prices or interest rates going up??? The better neighborhoods are not ever going to be affected by the foreclosures of subprime…If you want the best schools closeness to beaches and seabreezes now might be the time to buy because the next decade could put us in the naples league of Small lots tiny funky lil house 6 blocks to beach 1.2M…
Sellers that want to sell are negotiable, but keep in mind most here in Sarasota near the bay or islands do not have to sell…It has always been that way…Every winter I see the same for sale signs on the same island properties, they have a predetermined make me move price and until someone meets it they will continue to enjoy paradise and take the sign down after season till next year…Like it or not it is reality…I have watched as each year the homes get bigger some yanks even buy adjacent homes to build their shrine…For the right price anyone will sell. Welcome to Florida!
I do not want to hurt anyones feelings or get you upset but realize Sarasota gulf coast is an English speaking low crime upscale area and we hope it always will be…Price point does assure that it stay that way!
ok so apparently the new thing now is not denying the problem just downsizing it..we went from denial syndrome,to paramedic syndrome. "its really not that bad,your gonna be okay" example? experts expect (wish) prices to fall 5% in the next three years....its already 5% statewide as the statistics suggest....some counties higher some lower......and it hasnt even picked up speed yet....I think next year you will see at least another 15% decrease...so they keep talking taxes...the only reason taxes are an issue is because houses are 50% overpriced...but I dont expect any expert to come clean about the real reasons behind the bust...look for them to continue to find new scapegoats...
ok so apparently the new thing now is not denying the problem just downsizing it..we went from denial syndrome,to paramedic syndrome. "its really not that bad,your gonna be okay" example? experts expect (wish) prices to fall 5% in the next three years....its already 5% statewide as the statistics suggest....some counties higher some lower......and it hasnt even picked up speed yet....I think next year you will see at least another 15% decrease...so they keep talking taxes...the only reason taxes are an issue is because houses are 50% overpriced...but I dont expect any expert to come clean about the real reasons behind the bust...look for them to continue to find new scapegoats...
I don't know if that post was directed at me but I will reply anyway. Prices went down in Lee County by 2%. Well a 2% decrease still puts us ahead of January and February so I still consider that up and not down. Prices are down compared to April but still up compared to the beginning of the year. Now let me asky you, what is the real reason behind the bust?
The better neighborhoods are not ever going to be affected by the foreclosures of subprime… I wouldnt be so sure about that....thats the whole point right know people who couldnt afford a 700k house...were being handed the loans....if west l.a. has foreclosures.....I dont think sarasota is any safer........
I don't know if that post was directed at me but I will reply anyway. Prices went down in Lee County by 2%. Well a 2% decrease still puts us ahead of January and February so I still consider that up and not down. Prices are down compared to April but still up compared to the beginning of the year. Now let me asky you, what is the real reason behind the bust?
It wasnt directed at you ,I was talking about the so called experts opinions...I think the main reason is the discrepency between prices and peoples wages,you can only go up so much,gravity comes to mind..what goes up must come down,arm loans arent gonna help the situation,tighter lending standards arent the reason but are certainly gonna keep sales down,enough to avoid any major increases in sales,alot of people who might of qualified in 05 wont anymore...
The truth about home sellers. Sweeping generalizations about home owner's motivations for selling or holding may not give you a clear picture. Some can wait to sell, others can't... If you're looking for bargains, go ahead an try making low offers. You might get lucky and find someone who has fallen on hard times and will have to take your lowball. Sadly, not everyone is as financially savvy as I suppose (some of you) are; for many others, an unexpected illness, death of spouse or job loss turned their lives upside down, they may have to sell, but still have hope to walk away with something. Maybe some are just greedy, but not all are bad people trying to keep you from getting your dream home on the cheap. Some are just people like you- or maybe your mother or neighbor, trying to take care of their own families or themselves. I hope none of you ever find yourselves in a difficult financial position.
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