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With big box stores closing, it seems like cities in the midwest and in places like Texas etc are on the verge of massive retail blight.
All those frontage roads in suburban Houston and Dallas, all the retail in the suburbs of mid and major cities in the midwest where it seems like retail is already overbuilt compared to the east and west coasts.
When I go home to Kansas City, I quickly remember just how much surface parking is set aside for retail centers. It's like they have twice as much parking that is ever needed even for black Friday or something. Here in suburban DC, there seems to be just enough parking for an average weekday at most places. It takes a bit to find parking at any retail center in suburban DC on a weekend.
Also, back in the midwest, I see a LOT more vacant retail like big boxes etc that just sit vacant than I do in the bigger metros out here, but at the same time, these overbuilt metros are actually building MORE retail on open land.
This story below makes me wonder what metros could look like in another ten years with massive amounts of strip malls and acres of parking lots that will be home to more weeds than anything.
It's possible that large swaths of these metros will look absolutely terrible for many years to come.
Outside of Walmart, modern retail seems to do better in urban areas or mixed use higher density areas.
Could the "ghettos" of American cites be heading to the suburbs when this retail blight becomes a major eyesore? If so, which metro areas will be hit the hardest?
I do believe that many suburbs in America will become future slums, and cities that have the cheapest/worst infrastructure and that require the most of it (because of sprawl) will have a VERY hard time getting the taxes necessary to keep it up. In other words, the sprawliest metros will have the hardest time with this.
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kcmo
With big box stores closing, it seems like cities in the midwest and in places like Texas etc are on the verge of massive retail blight.
All those frontage roads in suburban Houston and Dallas, all the retail in the suburbs of mid and major cities in the midwest where it seems like retail is already overbuilt compared to the east and west coasts.
When I go home to Kansas City, I quickly remember just how much surface parking is set aside for retail centers. It's like they have twice as much parking that is ever needed even for black Friday or something. Here in suburban DC, there seems to be just enough parking for an average weekday at most places. It takes a bit to find parking at any retail center in suburban DC on a weekend.
That's because suburban DC has quickly become the mixed-use/ TOD capital of the country. Malls and strip shopping centers across the region's suburbs are all losing large amounts of surface parking, in exchange for residential or street facing retail at a rapid rate. That's not to say none exist, but there is a push to force people into transit oriented or limited parking developments throughout the DC suburbs. Which I fully expect and it has already began to be the model for much of the country's suburbs.
It seems to me that all the dead retail centers in the suburbs here are doing well, with several around me actually being revived compared to the 90s and early/mid 2000s.
There are quite a few strip shopping centers around me which, I can't believe they're hanging on. One right near me, the city of Independence a few years ago agreed to provide incentives to redevelop, since it had basically died. Complete waste of time. They need to tear it down and replace it with apartments, industrial ... anything except more retail. What's worse is, it's got a Toys 'R Us in it, which means it's about to die even more in the near future.
Not sure where you live OP but comparing Dallas/FW and Houston to the Midwest is no comparison at all. The OBVIOUS difference is THOSE metro areas are growing and RE-development is happening. Both Houston and D/FW had the issues of overbuilding back in the 1980s due to the energy bust. Malls and stripcenters by the dozens went into foreclosure back when both metro areas were a third the size they are now in economies less diverse and less productive (better technology and engineering) than in the 21st century.
So if they overcame that in WORST conditions than now why not now? Two malls in Dallas that many point to are Collin Creek in Plano and Vista Ridge along in Lewisville. Both are 1970s built. Both have lost out to newer/shinier developments and neighborhoods. BUT both have one thing in common that will position if need be for redevelopment - location near major intersecting highways and not far from an existing commuter rail station and by Collin Creek, a new east/west rail line is nearing approval. Rezoning the acreage for mixed-use is highly possible. Crime is not an issue. Schools are decent as well. As company like Forest City Enterprises specializes in such projects. For example, the master-planned Denver's old Stapleton airport property into a mini-city
It seems to me that all the dead retail centers in the suburbs here are doing well, with several around me actually being revived compared to the 90s and early/mid 2000s.
Location is key. The outlying new suburbs across the county line are going strong reversing the trend of moving to the center city. The cookie cutter burbs are hot again.
West Coast metros are doing much better on average. We never leapfrogged malls out to the boonies anything like Middle America...not enough land. We used to expand retail by densifying existing retail centers, or replacing them with mixed-usem plus a lesser amount of sprawl. Now we have better uses for any added retail...for example the largest suburban-style mall within the Seattle city limits plans to substantially reduce retail while adding office and residential uses.
You've got the inner core 610 that is slowly, but surely, gentrifying/infilling. Outside this loop, but within another outer-loop Beltway 8, you have a largely low-income, decaying locales that were the wealthy MPCs back in the day: this includes areas like Greenspoint, Sharpstown, and Alief.
Now I say "sort of" because outside this declining region, the high wealth picks back up again, corresponding to the newer MPCs and suburbs that are still seeing growth (i.e. Sugar Land, The Woodlands, etc).
Suburban areas that adapt will survive and thrive. Two perfect examples are King of Prussia, PA, and Tysons Corner, VA.
Both were once considered exurbs with a strip shopping center, and have now evolved into live, work, play areas with massive amounts of housing, retail and industry all in one town. It also helps that both areas are wealthy and near very busy highways interchanges. King of Prussia is also working on light rail to connect it to Philadelphia which is the final link.
Your average 1980s suburb with basic strip malls offer nothing more than that, so unless it is a densely populated area, and/or a very wealthy area, the retail will struggle.
Another plus for Northeastern cities is that many suburbs have walk-able towns and villages, that were developed hundreds of years ago and are now booming because of the density, walk-ability, character and connections to the city. That is almost nonexistent in sunbelt cities.
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