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Very spoiled populaces that would rather self-destruct than making any concessions/sacrifices!
France is one of the only western countries that have a natural birth rate that is at or above the replacement rate. Nearly every other western countries' population growth is due entirely to immigration.
So in a thread about declining birth rates, France is a good example of the opposite of that.
Very spoiled populaces that would rather self-destruct than making any concessions/sacrifices!
Quote:
Originally Posted by strad
France is one of the only western countries that have a natural birth rate that is at or above the replacement rate. Nearly every other western countries' population growth is due entirely to immigration.
So in a thread about declining birth rates, France is a good example of the opposite of that.
France and Italy are interesting examples.
France has a high naturalized immigrant population. Furthermore five to ten years ago the French government enhanced incentives for citizens to have children. I believe those incentives are working as opposed to the situation in some other countries of continental Europe where government incentives to reproduce are not working as well or at all. I don't believe the ethnic French birth rate is at replacement rate but the additional birth rate of the naturalized immigrants is getting France over that hump.
Italy on the other hand suffers from a serious cultural problem. In Italy there is a cultural shift that is impacting formation of families and it relates to changing gender roles. In Italy the men are accustomed to their wives treating them just like their mothers did. This worked for generations until the women became empowered and liberated. Now there is a situation where the men won't get married to liberated, career women because there expectation is for the women to stay home and wait on them hand and foot while the women won't marry the men because they don't want to stay home barefoot and pregnant.
The term for this phenomenon of grown men living at home with their mother is bamboccione. bamboccione - Wiktionary
Any society dependent on oil will soon disappear because the world recently reached peak oil production. Oil is axiomatic in the creation of modern society, and without it, modern civilization would cease to exist. Globalization is the economic model where goods are transported across the world. This economic model will soon cease to exist because without cheap oil to transport the goods, there can no longer be large scale global trade. All of the Made-in-China goods from Walmarts in North America were transported there because of cheap oil. When you don't have that cheap oil anymore, the economy will have to localize. The only goods that can be produced in the future are goods that are sold where they were created. There is no way we can have long supply chains when oil becomes too scarce and expensive.
Any society dependent on oil will soon disappear because the world recently reached peak oil production. Oil is axiomatic in the creation of modern society, and without it, modern civilization would cease to exist. Globalization is the economic model where goods are transported across the world. This economic model will soon cease to exist because without cheap oil to transport the goods, there can no longer be large scale global trade. All of the Made-in-China goods from Walmarts in North America were transported there because of cheap oil. When you don't have that cheap oil anymore, the economy will have to localize. The only goods that can be produced in the future are goods that are sold where they were created. There is no way we can have long supply chains when oil becomes too scarce and expensive.
That's not going to make a society "disappear." It's just going to go through painful adjustments.
Any society dependent on oil will soon disappear because the world recently reached peak oil production. Oil is axiomatic in the creation of modern society, and without it, modern civilization would cease to exist. Globalization is the economic model where goods are transported across the world. This economic model will soon cease to exist because without cheap oil to transport the goods, there can no longer be large scale global trade. All of the Made-in-China goods from Walmarts in North America were transported there because of cheap oil. When you don't have that cheap oil anymore, the economy will have to localize. The only goods that can be produced in the future are goods that are sold where they were created. There is no way we can have long supply chains when oil becomes too scarce and expensive.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ralph_Kirk
That's not going to make a society "disappear." It's just going to go through painful adjustments.
I agree with Ralph_Kirk. The demise of oil will result in pain adjustments where transportation will shift to other fuel sources such as electricity, solar or biodiesel. This will certainly curtail long distance shipping and make some goods unavailable to certain locations but this change alone will not destroy any particular society. I think it would cause a shift back to a more Amish-like lifestyle for many citizens.
Location: Finally escaped The People's Republic of California
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I think the changes we will see soon will be in the Arab world. As the radical Muslims seem to take over when ever there is a power vacuum. I'm afraid more and more radicals will rise to power, and the results will be much like the tribal warfare we see today throughout Africa
I agree with Ralph_Kirk. The last time I was in W DC I realized I was in an Imperial city that might as well be called "New Rome". I believe we are still a vital civilization because we accept immigrants and encourage them to become "Americans" even if it takes a couple of generations for them to speak American.
I think the next civilizations that are likely to collapse are not the places with steady or declining birth rates but the ones with high birth rates and the resulting overcrowding by the dirt poor. These places include the Indian subcontinent, Brazil, Mexico and the Middle East. The difference between now and the past is the current poor have access to modern weapons and every reason to use them.
The Islamic states, once they run out of cheap oil to fund their aristocrat's excesses, will be subject to ever more violence from the "Faithfull" to allow any commercial connection to the rest of the world. Then the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse will ride and leave behind an un populated desolation with no reason to be repopulated.
I believe the keys to cultural survival in the next couple of centuries is to accept immigrants and utilize some of their culture and to develop a nonpetroleum energy source to power the economy. The first will drive the cultural traditionalists to rage and the latter will make the anti nuclear power bunch to shake with unjustifiable fear. I can only hope we do not allow the angry and the fearful to send us down the path to economic and cultural failure.
There is really a kind of distance - but it is more by religion and culture. Most of the immigrants are from areas with "archaic" traditions. It is hard for them to socialize with the germans ( and other europeans ) and vice versa.
Successful Immigration is very hard - especialy for many of the *muslim crowd* in a modern western society.
Immigration is not as simple as it seems.
But i dont think, that a society will disappear - the transition goes on and on and on.....................................
You can figure this out by looking at 3rd generation immigrants. If they're still speaking the "old tongue" as their primary language, that nation is failing at assimilation for some (or many) reasons.
My vote goes to Germany. Several articles on the internet clearly indicate that Germany suffers from one of the lowest birthrates in Europe and this condition has been prevalent for approximately forty years. Government policies implemented by the Merkel administration have not had success in reversing the trend. Here is a link to just one of those articles. Kids or career: Germany’s falling birth rate dilemma | euronews, reporter
This past fall I have become friends with an immigrant from Morocco. This friend has relatives who moved from Morocco to Germany. According to my friend, the German government welcomes immigration for the purposes of boosting the population and filling jobs that native Germans just won't do. However immigrants are not only segregated in the workplace but they are also segregated socially. Apparently native Germans will not form romantic relationships with immigrants. Germany is missing out on all of the potential births from potential interracial relationships. Furthermore since immigrants are not made to feel socially welcome in Germany, many do not stay long term and put down roots leading to lower immigrant birthrates in Germany than in many of its European neighbors.
Now many people rave about Germany's economy citing engineering marvels like BMW and other auto manufacturers. Germany does produce phenomenal engineering. However that cultural focus on engineering comes with a price. Many German companies are managed very rigidly. We also see this rigidity manifest itself in the reluctance of native Germans to socially embrace the immigrants. I can speak from experience that German leadership is very risk averse and inflexible. Outside the field of engineering, Germans are not strong producers of creativity which limits their strategic thinking. Despite Germany's current strength in engineering, prosperity and growth are achieved through managing change. It is my assertion that the Germans do not manage change well, that change will manage them instead and eventually snuff out their culture. Their engineering success has only been in place for approximately 50 years (post WWII) which is hardly the test of time.
Nope, your wrong. You underestimate the Germans. They do have a low birth rate but that has happened in the past before WW2. Germans are a strong people with a great destiny and they are aware of that. They are also aware of the dangers of interracial relationships and how it would lower their the race. What is happening now in Germany is only a phase they are going through and they will pull out of it. There are still 80 million or so Germans in Germany. Germans have been through worst crisis in their history than what they are going through now. Things can change very fast in the volatile times and the way the course of the world is going those changes are coming soon. The far right in Germany is gaining fast in the political arena and someday soon I predict that they will win a national election. Then things will change fast.
As far as Germans being good engineers it is true. But they are more than engineers. Philosophy and music are high on their list of achievments and much more. Don't forget that German rocket scientists put a man on the moon. Quite an achievment there.
You will be hearing more of the Germans.
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