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The future is very scary. But, in the past, when today was the future, that future was even scarier. Now we have arrived there/here, and it has become the present. But it's a lot less scary and a lot more boring than it was when it was the future.
Can AI read that paragraph and understand it? Or only when the future becomes the present?
I would also believe the trucker and the cab driver are an endangered species.
Truck drivers aren't going away. Ever.
It's true that most cross-country freight will move on rail, but we will always be there to take it from railyard to warehouse, from warehouse to store, and from the store to people's homes.
We'll also be hauling commodities and products that originate and are consumed in the same general area (concrete, garbage, agricultural commodities, etc.).
Plus, there is some freight that cannot be shipped via rail or air.
It's true that most cross-country freight will move on rail, but we will always be there to take it from railyard to warehouse, from warehouse to store, and from the store to people's homes.
We'll also be hauling commodities and products that originate and are consumed in the same general area (concrete, garbage, agricultural commodities, etc.).
Plus, there is some freight that cannot be shipped via rail or air.
You must've missed the part about self driving cars being tested on the actual roads as we speak ? Not only in the US (all Big 3, Google, and now Apple) but also in Europe (Daimler just started city street trials) and Asia.
The trucks are not going away in the intermediate future. But they will at some point be fully automated and driverless, just like many subway trains are now. Now the question is, how many of them will be owned by individuals as opposed to corporations. When you don't have to deal with drivers, hiring independent operators makes less sense than outsourcing a large fleet from a highly specialized trucking company. At that point, you take the human factor out of this and it becomes a commodity.
The "truck drivers" probably have about 20 years ahead.
How do you make sure that the future generations of people stay educated and creative if everything is provided to them free of charge from cradle to grave ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Julian658
Try to explain the Internet and GPS to someone living in the 19th century. We do not have a true understanding of these things.
I think I have a fairly good understanding of both. GPS is a very simple concept, actually. It's just that until 1970s we didn't have the necessary technology to put GPS satellites in the orbit and keep them functioning.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Julian658
Yes! At some point AI will create things that we humans cannot create.
Just because most people will be unemployed doesn't necessarily imply there will be a basic income. The direction a lot of politics is headed, the elite could become wealthier and be the ones able to buy the products and services provided by the robots. The poor might just get poorer, and be left out. Billions of poor people might die in the gutter, from lack of basic essentials. And robots might automatically dispose of their corpses. There might not be any revolution, because the poor people might be too poor to obtain the weapons and supplies needed for one. And there might be millions of robot cops to arrest all the revolutionaries before they can do much harm.
The idea that people need income so companies can sell products to them is a fallacy. Companies can sell products to the elite. As the wealth gets more and more concentrated, companies can evolve into providing fancier, more expensive products, for fewer and fewer customers. The companies can stay prosperous by getting more and more money for the few products they do provide. The more elite their customers, and the fancier their products, the more money they can make from each.
From the point of view of the elite, it could be a few decades of upheaval while the population is being drastically reduced, to the point where there are no more "unproductive" people, and the "productive" people get better rewarded for their productivity. In general, the "productive" people would be those wealthy enough to own robots and factories so they can "produce" instead of just sitting around being unemployed. They can sit around in their executive suites waiting for their robots to make their companies more prosperous.
This is a very gloomy scenario, and somewhat possible.
A far more possible scenario is the end of capitalism as we know it.
Unless the elites can stop people from voting when they all of a sudden become unemployed, and are already employing a completely robotic army ready to suppress discontent, the masses of impoverished voters will vote in someone who will promise them to nationalize all these evil robotic farms and give everyone a lifetime income.
Even the most hardline conservative free market supporter will change his worldview in a heartbeat when almost everyone in their family is out of the job despite spending decades building their experience and education.
I am a conservative believer in regulated Capitalism - but I only see it as a tool meant to keep our human society healthy and well provided for. Once the tool stops working for the society - or turns dangerous - it must be changed to a more suitable tool. Capitalism is not religion.
If the top 1% of that 1%'s remain greedy and stupid, they will deliver us straight into a Communist / Fascist society where no one, including them, is safe. I think this is a far more likely outcome.
Every 15 - 20 years the Luddites find their voice. They've been wrong for 200 years and apparently want to be for 200 more.
There will always be jobs because people will always have time. The hours between sunrise and sunset have always been occupied by people trying to improve their situation. That desire will never go away. Even millionaires who don't have to work another day in their lives still do.
If those who don't need more still work to get more, surely those who have less will also.
Every 15 - 20 years the Luddites find their voice. They've been wrong for 200 years and apparently want to be for 200 more.
There will always be jobs because people will always have time. The hours between sunrise and sunset have always been occupied by people trying to improve their situation. That desire will never go away. Even millionaires who don't have to work another day in their lives still do.
If those who don't need more still work to get more, surely those who have less will also.
The Luddites were most certainly right about the destruction of the livelihoods of some people engaged in some professions.
The quality of life for a lower rank Englishman in the XVIII - early XIX century was markedly worse than 200 years prior. One of the results of the first Industrial Revolution was the weakening of the population. The skeletal remains of the people who died in the High Middle Ages are about the same size as modern adults (5'-9" or so) while the people from the height of the first Industrial Revolution were smaller and less well nourished.
The problem now is we're running out of professions that can't be replaced by machines.
And today, just like 200 and 2000 years ago, a large part of population is not too bright and can't get cutting edge skills and education to stay afloat. Unless you believe that these people have no right to exist, how are you going to provide them with jobs ?
I think I have a fairly good understanding of both. GPS is a very simple concept, actually. It's just that until 1970s we didn't have the necessary technology to put GPS satellites in the orbit and keep them functioning.
Yes, you do, but not an average person in the 19th century. In fact, many folks in the early part of the 20th century would state that this technology is impossible.
And today, just like 200 and 2000 years ago, a large part of population is not too bright and can't get cutting edge skills and education to stay afloat. Unless you believe that these people have no right to exist, how are you going to provide them with jobs ?
Why must humans work to survive?
In the future---------Why not let all the machines do the work?
Perhaps humans can work for the sake of working and to be creative.
Yes, you do, but not an average person in the 19th century. In fact, many folks in the early part of the 20th century would state that this technology is impossible.
Actually, any sea captain / navigator would understand the concept very well not only in the XIX century but much earlier.
Putting a radio beacon in orbit would be a very well understood idea ever since the radio was invented. It doesn't require the knowledge of how to travel to space, merely the overall high level concept.
There are things / technologies / algorhitms today however that probably no one person fully understands. And certainly not one single person is capable of reproducing.
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