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I hear the argument that some just don't want go to college and/or work a job requiring specific critical thinking skills, but at the same time I don't see a path forward for those people in the services economy of the future.
What will those who don't have the desire or aptitude for a job do in say 30 years? Where do we put the unskilled labor in the future? Work as a clerk or cashier? Self-serve kiosks replace them at less cost. Drive a truck or taxi? Self-driving trucks/taxis replace them at less cost. Factory or construction worker? Robots replace them at less cost. Delivery driver/warehouse worker? Once those jobs unionize more and demand more pay, Amazon will just automate those jobs at less cost, too.
There's only so made trade skill workers needed, and even then tech is working on ways to automate them out of jobs, too. If a software engineer can break down and put into an algorithm what it is you do for a living, that job's going to become obsolete. New jobs will rise to service the army of automation, but those will mostly require specialized training/school that some will just not have the aptitude for.
I hear the argument that some just don't want go to college and/or work a job requiring specific critical thinking skills, but at the same time I don't see a path forward for those people in the services economy of the future.
That's why we need to rebuild large factories that employ thousands of workers each. China has hundreds or even thousands of such factories making sneakers and all kinds of trinkets that are sold here. And our working-age population sits around idle, working in the "gig economy", or working part-time after killing a few years pretending to study in college. And we are importing 2 million or more unskilled illegal immigrants every year. What are unskilled people supposed to do?
This is a political problem, not an education problem. The CHIPS Act (H.R. 4346) was a first step but we also need a SNEAKERS Act, a TRINKETS Act, and much more.
I hear the argument that some just don't want go to college and/or work a job requiring specific critical thinking skills, but at the same time I don't see a path forward for those people in the services economy of the future.
What will those who don't have the desire or aptitude for a job do in say 30 years? Where do we put the unskilled labor in the future? Work as a clerk or cashier? Self-serve kiosks replace them at less cost. Drive a truck or taxi? Self-driving trucks/taxis replace them at less cost. Factory or construction worker? Robots replace them at less cost. Delivery driver/warehouse worker? Once those jobs unionize more and demand more pay, Amazon will just automate those jobs at less cost, too.
There's only so made trade skill workers needed, and even then tech is working on ways to automate them out of jobs, too. If a software engineer can break down and put into an algorithm what it is you do for a living, that job's going to become obsolete. New jobs will rise to service the army of automation, but those will mostly require specialized training/school that some will just not have the aptitude for.
There's always been an assumption that as the economy destroys jobs that it creates other jobs. In the past, this has worked reasonably well. Just because it has worked in the past though doesn't mean there isn't a "tipping point" where it won't continue to work. Capitalism works well for many, but the problem is that the system is probably too efficient for some people. It will run right over those who are unprepared. Those with few job skills, those with low intelligence, those with physical disabilities are weeded right out by this system.
I share your concerns. The most we can probably do though is make some money available for job retraining and living expenses for workers while this is done. Even doing that inevitably brings out cries of "socialism" from a segment of this country.
That's why we need to rebuild large factories that employ thousands of workers each. China has hundreds or even thousands of such factories making sneakers and all kinds of trinkets that are sold here. And our working-age population sits around idle, working in the "gig economy", or working part-time after killing a few years pretending to study in college. And we are importing 2 million or more unskilled illegal immigrants every year. What are unskilled people supposed to do?
This is a political problem, not an education problem. The CHIPS Act (H.R. 4346) was a first step but we also need a SNEAKERS Act, a TRINKETS Act, and much more.
The Chinese also do those jobs for pennies on the dollar by comparison. If those factories had to come stateside and pay a living wage to workers doing basic unskilled labor, tech would scramble to develop automation that would reduce/eliminate as many of those jobs as possible.
That is, the only reason China and southeast Asia can continue to have unskilled factory jobs is because their local economies allow them to pay workers so little money that there's no incentive to automate those jobs. US workers wanting retirement and health benefits will tip that scale in a hurry.
Unskilled jobs as a means to support a family in the US is a dying dinosaur that cannot be saved.
There's always been an assumption that as the economy destroys jobs that it creates other jobs. In the past, this has worked reasonably well. Just because it has worked in the past though doesn't mean there isn't a "tipping point" where it won't continue to work. Capitalism works well for many, but the problem is that the system is probably too efficient for some people. It will run right over those who are unprepared. Those with few job skills, those with low intelligence, those with physical disabilities are weeded right out by this system.
I share your concerns. The most we can probably do though is make some money available for job retraining and living expenses for workers while this is done. Even doing that inevitably brings out cries of "socialism" from a segment of this country.
I would agree that retraining is really the best solution. New jobs will of course arise, but technology has also irreversibly changed the form those jobs will take. The future requires a mental workforce, not a physical one.
The problem is the segment of the workforce that requires adaptation is resistant to it. They keep holding out hope for some intervention that will make unskilled labor as fruitful as it was in the past.
The Chinese also do those jobs for pennies on the dollar by comparison. If those factories had to come stateside and pay a living wage to workers doing basic unskilled labor, tech would scramble to develop automation that would reduce/eliminate as many of those jobs as possible.
That is, the only reason China and southeast Asia can continue to have unskilled factory jobs is because their local economies allow them to pay workers so little money that there's no incentive to automate those jobs. US workers wanting retirement and health benefits will tip that scale in a hurry.
Unskilled jobs as a means to support a family in the US is a dying dinosaur that cannot be saved.
I feel like we are going around in circles.
Why did we just import 2 million unskilled illegals (with more on the way) if there are no jobs for them? How will they support their families?
There is supposed to be record low unemployment right now, yet people with college degrees need a handout to pay their loans because their jobs don't pay enough. Oh, and if you have a job that didn't require college it doesn't pay enough to support a family either. So it seems that both college-educated and non-college-educated workers are not earning enough money to survive, let alone get ahead.
Why did we just import 2 million unskilled illegals (with more on the way) if there are no jobs for them? How will they support their families?
There is supposed to be record low unemployment right now, yet people with college degrees need a handout to pay their loans because their jobs don't pay enough. Oh, and if you have a job that didn't require college it doesn't pay enough to support a family either. So it seems that both college-educated and non-college-educated workers are not earning enough money to survive, let alone get ahead.
Unskilled workers aren't coming here and getting $30+/hour with 401k and health benefits; they're getting minimum-wage or close to it (and sometimes less, because illegal and all) for long hours and often living very meagerly and/or sharing small spaces with others (a la what immigrants have always done here).
The blue collar jobs that people are screaming to come back aren't those jobs.
They want the old manufacturing union job that afforded one person bringing home enough to own a home and support a family. They want the old way where a young man with a good work ethic and loyalty could work his way up the ranks into upper management after 20 years.
Those jobs are by and large gone and not coming back. There's no incentive in bringing them back because companies can either pay someone in China much less to do it or bring in technology to do it and hire a couple specialists to maintain the robots instead.
The deaths of despair is very much coming about not because they can't get a job but because they can't get a good job. They have to work side gigs and p*ss into a bottle at the warehouse to make rent.
On your last statement, you're not wrong. Today there exists a very wide income inequality gap in this nation, and many jobs that do require degrees and/or are white collar are also on the wrong side of the divide. It's not enough to have a college degree anymore; it has to be in a field where workers create high value (think STEM, finance, medicine, etc).
It's now more than a year since the original post. There are many available jobs that only require a high school diploma or GED. I just checked local listings for jobs in my town. Every store I enter and at every restaurant there are Help Wanted signs.
These are some full-time positions available with benefits:
Forklift Operator: Education Requirements: High School Diploma or GED (General Education Diploma) or 6 months related experience or a combination of education and experience; Functional Skills: Forklift operation, SAP knowledge very helpful - will be trained on SAP, Ability to read and write legibly
Store Associate: Education and Experience: High School Diploma or equivalent preferred, Prior work experience in a retail environment preferred, A combination of education and experience providing equivalent knowledge;
Dispensary Associate: Education and Experience Requirements: High-school diploma or equivalent and experience in the field or in a similar field, Must be at least 21 years of age, Prior experience, preferably in retail and/or customer service area is a plus, Must have prior cash handling experience.
There's always been an assumption that as the economy destroys jobs that it creates other jobs. ...
This is still true, but it's remaining true only maybe for the upper third or upper half of job types and education levels. Starting in the late 19th century, farming-jobs were replaced with industrial jobs. This has been the pattern for some 100-150 years. One form of unskilled or semi-skilled labor was replaced by another. Because of productivity gains, workers could get a better deal, while owners and managers also got a better deal. Everybody won.
Today, the higher-skilled workers also win, together with managers and owners. But the winnings in recent past decades have been percolating up the "value chain", or seniority-chain. Those towards the very bottom have never been doing well, but those towards the lower-middle are today doing worse than they did 50 years ago. This is a stark change from the mid 20th century, and thus the despair.
Quote:
Originally Posted by id77
Unskilled workers aren't coming here and getting $30+/hour with 401k and health benefits; they're getting minimum-wage ...
The blue collar jobs that people are screaming to come back aren't those jobs.
They want the old manufacturing union job that afforded one person bringing home enough to own a home and support a family. ...
Exactly. There's no shortage of demeaning, unremunerative, dead-end [expletive] jobs. Thus the need for illegals or other persons willing to submit to such indignity. What's lacking is good jobs, for people who aren't particularly skilled or smart. These folks resent that their putative birthright to good jobs, is no longer being honored. They feel that their worth is being devalued.
The 20th century revolution was that the impoverished working-classes rose to become a kind of middle class. In 1870, "middle class" meant a medical doctor, an accountant, a military officer. It didn't mean a workman or an agricultural laborer. In 1970, it did. By 2070, it may again become the case, that something like the bottom third or bottom half of society in the wealthy/advanced/prosperous nations, is essentially impoverished. They'll be living much worse, than did their great-grandparents... and on par, with how their great-great-great-great-great grandparents lived. This, one supposes, is cause for... despair.
Awhile back I heard some say that teachers might go the way of the dinosaur. You could give each kid a computer and internet, and they could learn from home, saving the cost and maintenance of brick and mortar schools, they could learn at their own pace, then the lessons would be on line, etc. Keeping an open mind, I thought about how many things I'd learned on line...could it be that this generation of students would have the latest material, a library the size of the world, lightning fast computing at their fingertips, etc.? Here's a blog entry dated about a month before COVID:
Gee, that didn't go so well, did it? True, we weren't prepared for it and maybe it would go better next time. My school, and probably a vast majority of schools, gave the kids every benefit of the doubt that we could and to be sure, some students gamed the system. How much can we be sure they actually learned? Not much, especially in the beginning of the pandemic. What knowledge did they not acquire in level 1 that they would need in level 2 of their courses?
There was a big concern about food when COVID hit. We knew how many kids depended on school breakfast and lunch to get enough to eat. In fact they set up tables so parents could drive up and get bags of food, even though nobody was in classes. When we went hybrid, at the end of the week lunch ladies would come around with food for the weekends. Some kids were loathe to accept the help openly but their families needed it, especially if the parents were sick, and some students got jobs to support their families. I often think this is where churches would step in (and I'm sure some do) but school seemed to take on more of those functions since I started.
Also, students lost some important things that are not graded or even covered in the books. In May, after the first full year of return to normal, I was talking to my (high school) asst principal and she said she'd never seen so many fights in her life. Reading, writing and 'rithmetic are important, but so are social skills, like talking about a problem rather than punching. They need soft skills.
I guess the teaching profession won't be extinct any time soon, if ever. Before the students arrived for the first day of school one year, our principal chose to show us Willard Daggett's "Perfect Storm," which talks about mega trends that will affect everyone deeply.
An American goes in for a medical scan and gets the results a few days later. What happened was that the people who scanned it email it to where doctors make less money and have the scan read there, then email back the results. So, nice medical degree you have there but even radiologists can lose work to outsourcing.
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