Quote:
Originally Posted by LLN
That voter fraud in certain districts is rampant. Don't bother retorting that it has not been found. That is why suspicious and not proven.
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Actually anyone can retort that rampant voter fraud has
not been found in NC.
The only thing it has been is misrepresented, implied, screamed about, caused some to go clutching their pearls and fearing the end of days, but proved? Nope.
The proof that it is NOT rampant is here:
After initial hysteria, back-pedaling over NC voter fraud claims
But in case you can't get into an detailed analysis, let's just start with simple math followed by logic:
35,750.
That was the number of names with identifying birthdates on the NC voting rosters that had exact matches (same names with same birthdates) on voting rosters in other states. Therefore those who didn't understand automatically screamed that there was rampant voter fraud with over 35 thousand cases proven.
But was it proven?
How
rampant is that number in regards to the population of registered voters in NC. Well first you need to know how many there are:
6,483,736 registered voters in NC. Source:
NC Government
Now maybe you don't get the math off hand, but
35,760 is just
0.55%(give or take) of
6,483,736.
You get it? The number thrown about equates a figure that is about
half of one percentage point - so clearly even the raw number alone is not proving "rampant" voter fraud. If anything - the number provided proves that over 99% of the voters in this state are not committing voter fraud.
I guess though 35k is still a lot of people, eh? But remember I said start with math and follow with logic?
First the obvious: Do you think every one who is registered to vote, actually does so? I hope you know the answer, but just in case: Since 1972 NC registered voter participation rate in presidential elections years range from 59% to 70%. In non-president elections years it ranges from 37% to 62%. Sad, huh? Don't even get me started on primary elections, but you can look them up if you want. Source:
NC Gov
So do you really think the criminally minded are more likely to vote over the general population? Now I can hear you now - "of course they are - they want to commit fraud" and if they all do that means those gosh darn 35,000+ people who are committing fraud are making an even bigger impact (assuming that unlike the general population all 35,000 vote in every single election )
But we still haven't determined if there really is 35,000 people doing that, now have we?
Have you ever moved in your life? In addition to registering to vote in your new district - did you ever consider writing your previous voting district to have your name stricken from their roster?
I truly doubt you have. I know I never did. In fact the idea never occurred to me. Do you know that states don't share a centralized voter registration database?
I moved from NY about a decade ago and I guarantee I am one of those people in the 35k number. Yet I never voted outside of the precinct in which I lived. How many people in this state are from other states?
I personally don't know, but I have an idea: "Between 2011 and 2012, North Carolina gained nearly 35,000 net migrants. The total flows into and out of the state were nearly 8 times as large: nearly 240,000 residents moved out while another 275,000 moved in." Source:
Visualizing State-to-State Migration 275,000 people in the space of just 2 years moved into NC from other states!
Care to guess how many even thought of having their names removed from their old voting precincts? Just to be a smart aleck I would gander less than .55%
And even with ALL of that considered, do you know that it is just within the realm of possibility that there are two or three John Smiths in several states with the same birth day? If you know anything about the popularity of baby names, you know that is far from uncommon.
But in case you don't believe me
CapGemini did a mathematical proof of this.
TL : DR (Psst - that's smart aleck ways of saying Too Long Didn't Read):
The 35,000 number thrown around as proof of rampant voter fraud in NC is a raw number that doesn't consider the errors in other states voter registration, people having the same names/birth dates, and accepting that even without accounting for those truths the raw number is about 1/2 of 1% of registered voters.
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