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It will take more than a day or two for the tide to turn, IMHO. In order to determine if there are less tourists or not, you have to know what the boom times look like. When there's hardly any room for another beach towel on the beach, crowds up and down the sidewalks, herds of tourists following the flag held by their leader, etc. That's what boom time looks like. Could you walk easily on the sidewalk? Did you have to wait in a line anywhere? Was parking hard to find?
In a fifty percent downturn, there are still half the people there so it doesn't look dead, but it generally takes more than that fifty percent to keep all the businesses open.
It will take more than a day or two for the tide to turn, IMHO. In order to determine if there are less tourists or not, you have to know what the boom times look like. When there's hardly any room for another beach towel on the beach, crowds up and down the sidewalks, herds of tourists following the flag held by their leader, etc. That's what boom time looks like. Could you walk easily on the sidewalk? Did you have to wait in a line anywhere? Was parking hard to find?
In a fifty percent downturn, there are still half the people there so it doesn't look dead, but it generally takes more than that fifty percent to keep all the businesses open.
I agree with you hotzcatz...but the tide has to turn sometime and do you see and signs of an uptrend?
I was talking to a real estate agent who is a friend of mine and he indicated that March home sales are nearly double that of February so far...this is not saying much since February sales were dismal...but still it just might be the start...thoughts?
Home sales may have doubled - but is that due to the buying of foreclosed properties at bargain prices?
Might be a few folks spending tax return money, might be a few folks desperate to get out of the cold. The prices have lowered, but I suspect they will still go lower. I'm not, of course, a real estate salesperson or have anything to do with real estate other than help folks who are building houses on the property they have already bought, but it seems we aren't at a bottom yet. Most of the houses I see selling are the ones that have had really reduced prices.
Might be a few folks spending tax return money, might be a few folks desperate to get out of the cold. The prices have lowered, but I suspect they will still go lower. I'm not, of course, a real estate salesperson or have anything to do with real estate other than help folks who are building houses on the property they have already bought, but it seems we aren't at a bottom yet. Most of the houses I see selling are the ones that have had really reduced prices.
I agree. Having been involved in both California and Hawaii Real Estate (as an owner) for over forty years, I have seen the turns (both up and down) in Hawaii follow the turns in California by about two years.
In my opinion, California Real Estate is near the bottom right now.
The links below are to information from Paul Brewbaker, until recently the Chief Economist at Bank of Hawaii...
The first link is a news article summarizing comments he made in Feb '09.
The second is to one of the last reports he presented in '08.
The last link is to his biography, still on the BoH website.
There are a lot of people in business here who have high regard for his "predictions".
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