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Old 11-09-2015, 12:57 AM
 
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Note: As an American and a man with basic morals, I am glad Hitler lost. I ask this question only as I have an interest in alternative military scenarios.

The United States was Germany's strongest opponent in WW2. It was also basically the last major player to declare war on Germany. So suppose that Hitler predicted that his plans would ultimately result in eventual war with the United States anyway, so he decides to do things in reverse.

So in the 1930s, before Germany is at war with the UK or the Soviets, before Germany invades Poland and at a time when the axis powers are at the height of their strength, Germany, Italy and Japan launch a suprise war out of no where on the United States.

The air forces of the 3 countries launch a full scale blitzkrieg on the US and the Navies of the 3 land the boots of the Germans, Japanese and Italians on US soil, before the US ever saw it coming.

Meanwhile Hitler renews the offers under the Zimmerman note to Mexico to see if they don't want a piece of the action, only now with a full scale invasion of the US underway, Germany's promises are actually feasable and Mexican military success possible this time around.

And the Axis powers make war on the US until they are a destroyed, smoldering bankrupt mess so that Germany can go back and complete it's goals in Europe (And Japan on the other side of the world) unhindered.

What would have come of such a suprise and full scale invasion of the US by the axis powers? (And possibly Mexico)
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Old 11-09-2015, 01:27 AM
 
Location: Texas Hill Country
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Well, out of nowhere is a good point because where would such an attack, how could such an attack be launched?

Of the six carriers Japan used on Pearl Harbor, only two of them were available/existed in 1937, the Kaga and the Soryu.

Germany had a major problem in WWII in that while the Luftwaffe was fantastic in the Spanish Civil War, waging a longer ranged war showed their defects. They had not developed a proper long range bomber (with only two engines, the loss of one meant the mission was abandoned) and the Me-110, their answer for a long range fighter, wasn't such a great answer. Further, it is a general line of thought that Hitler wasn't ready to go into major war until 1948.

During the Cold War, it was often pointed out that when WWII started for the US, Doenitz had only 6-9 U-boats that could reach the US (and in the Cold War, the Soviets had 300 that could do that. Frequently seeing that advertisement, one remembers such a little tidbit).

So, first of all, WITH WHAT? FROM WHERE?

Secondly, one has to appreciate what can motivate neutrality in that era. Ie, "The war is over there, we have an ocean between us, we don't have to worry about it.". If they could base out of Mexico, then the feelings of neutrality might have been a great deal different.

Finally, it has also been pointed out that a major mistake that Hitler made was to declare war on the United States after the US declared war on Japan. If Hitler had not declared war, it might have been very difficult to sway the US people into a two ocean war.
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Old 11-09-2015, 06:25 AM
 
Location: New Mexico U.S.A.
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Moderator cut: Thread moved from Military Life and Issues forum to History forum
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Old 11-09-2015, 06:42 AM
 
Location: Type 0.73 Kardashev
11,110 posts, read 9,749,574 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Frost View Post
Note: As an American and a man with basic morals, I am glad Hitler lost. I ask this question only as I have an interest in alternative military scenarios.

The United States was Germany's strongest opponent in WW2. It was also basically the last major player to declare war on Germany. So suppose that Hitler predicted that his plans would ultimately result in eventual war with the United States anyway, so he decides to do things in reverse.

So in the 1930s, before Germany is at war with the UK or the Soviets, before Germany invades Poland and at a time when the axis powers are at the height of their strength, Germany, Italy and Japan launch a suprise war out of no where on the United States.

The air forces of the 3 countries launch a full scale blitzkrieg on the US and the Navies of the 3 land the boots of the Germans, Japanese and Italians on US soil, before the US ever saw it coming.

Meanwhile Hitler renews the offers under the Zimmerman note to Mexico to see if they don't want a piece of the action, only now with a full scale invasion of the US underway, Germany's promises are actually feasable and Mexican military success possible this time around.

And the Axis powers make war on the US until they are a destroyed, smoldering bankrupt mess so that Germany can go back and complete it's goals in Europe (And Japan on the other side of the world) unhindered.

What would have come of such a suprise and full scale invasion of the US by the axis powers? (And possibly Mexico)
Nothing.

It's a meaningless question because it could not have happened.

Germany
How and why? Hitler's war aims were dominance of the continent, the absorption of Germanic peoples therein into the Greater Reich, and lebensraum in the East. What could possibly be the point of invading North America? Further, if Germany couldn't cross 22 miles of the English Channel and take down the British in 1940 - and, no, as I've said many times before in this forum, Sea Lion never had any chance of success and the British were never close to losing the Battle of Britain - then how could it possibly invade across the entirety of the Atlantic Ocean?

Japan
Again, how and why? Japan desired local conquests and securing vital war materiel to that end. What would they want with North America? And again, given that merely striking Hawaii in 1941 put them at the end of their logistical capabilities, how on Earth do you imagine them invading the North American continent?

Italy


Mexico


You might as well ask what would have happened had Luxembourg invaded Brazil... both scenarios have roughly the same chance at both happening and succeeding.
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Old 11-09-2015, 08:14 AM
 
Location: Howard County, Maryland
16,378 posts, read 10,397,175 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TamaraSavannah View Post
Well, out of nowhere is a good point because where would such an attack, how could such an attack be launched?

Of the six carriers Japan used on Pearl Harbor, only two of them were available/existed in 1937, the Kaga and the Soryu.
Sorry to nitpick, but the IJN had the Akagi (as well as the Kaga and Soryu) in 1937. They also had the light carriers Hosho and Ryujo.

That said, you are correct that in 1937, NO ONE (including the U.S. Navy) had the sealift capability to mount a cross-ocean invasion. Moreover, no one had airplanes capable of crossing the ocean, attacking the U.S., and returning to base. True, planes could be launched from carriers. But the Kido Butai was solely a raiding force; it lacked the logistical capability to stand off our shores and beat us into submission.

The Japanese Navy did have 10 battleships available in 1937, and they could have caused some damage and created a huge amount of panic if they had suddenly appeared off the West Coast and started lobbing shells at us. But we had battleships too, and land-based bombers, so it wouldn't have taken us long to shoot back at them.

Another thing too. Even supposing that Hitler had the capability of launching an invasion (which he didn't), our British allies would have attacked his fleet from behind, thus trapping the Kriegsmarine between two forces (ours in front of them, the Royal Navy behind them). Even with the fearsome U-boats getting in on the action, I don't see how they could have possibly come out of such a campaign with more than a few ships still afloat.
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Old 11-09-2015, 09:50 AM
 
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Invading a country where there are a LOT of heavily armed citizens...not a good idea
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Old 11-09-2015, 10:01 AM
 
Location: Texas Hill Country
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According to Wiki, Akagi was in refit in 1937, hence unavailable.
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Old 11-09-2015, 10:38 AM
 
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I have a tough time even getting to first base with this scenario - A land invasion doesn't occur in a vacuum. Military leaders don't simply look at a map of a land mass and say "OK I am going to land an invasion force here". Such efforts not only require boots on the ground, but a trail of logistics to support such an efforts that far exceeds the military force itself.
Lets forget about the strategic sense, let's forget about German and Japanese war aims, let's forget about the preparedness of the US, let's forget about Mexico (militarily irrelevant), let's forget about Germany military build up. None of that is important. Simply enough - a full scale invasion of the US from Europe or Asia would be logistically impossible, surprise or not, using the mechanized warfare and combined arms tactics of that time. An invasion force would run out of munitions, food, fuel, materials, and replacements within days, perhaps hours. It would bog down even with the lack of any resistance. Discounting these logistical restrictions is like discounting the laws of gravity. It simply cannot be, at least not without years of the axis powers preparation (and even then it still may be impossible)...and if they did that it wouldn't be a surprise.

That's the problem with these "what if" questions - they are not well thought out and so inconcievalbe as to not even warrant a logical answer.
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Old 11-09-2015, 10:42 AM
 
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The Brits would have bailed us out.
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Old 11-09-2015, 11:00 AM
 
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Remember that it took 3 years of planning, 5,000 ships, complete air supremacy, a massive deception campaign, hundreds of recon missions, billions of dollars, tens of millions of tons of supplies, and a French resistance movement against the Nazis for the Allies to cross 25 miles of English channel to land 125,000 men on the Normandy coast.

So what do you think it would take to land 125,000 men on the shores of Virginia or California? The ONLY way the Japanese could do it would be to take Hawaii first so that they would have SOME kind of forward base. Otherwise they would have a supply line stretching 6,000 miles -- easy meat for the U.S. submarine fleet. If the U.S. used it's aircraft carriers as commerce raiders, any Axis force on American soil would be cut-off from supply and command/control within a month or two. Just like Joachim Peiper during the Battle of the Bulge, the Axis would be starved of resources and heavy weapons would have to be abandoned.

Aside from Japanese aircraft carriers, the Axis would have almost no air support, a vital component to modern warfare. Neither Italy or Germany had any aircraft carriers or carrier-capable aircraft, especially not in 1937.

Hitler, who put very little emphasis on his navy (and only liked big battleships with big guns, not U-Boats or amphibious landing ships) had almost nothing in 1937 except for the 4 pocket battleships and perhaps the under-gunned Gneisenau and Scharnhorst.

Italy only had around 4 refurbished WWI dreadnoughts as neither the Vittorio Veneto or the Littorio were complete by 1937 (they were launched that year). The Roma was still being built and the Impero was never finished.

Which means that the bulk of the invasion would fall to the Japanese navy, the only navy with any realistic chance of even getting men and supplies to the coast of U.S. shores ... and that would mean the Regia Marina and the Kriegsmarine circling 'round the tip of Africa to get to the Pacific in order to support the Japanese -- leaving the Royal Navy and the French navy free to do whatever it wanted in the Atlantic and Indian oceans.

I would say that the landings would take place on the west coast even though the east coast has the most lucrative industrial targets. I don't think a cross-ocean invasion of the Atlantic is all that feasible, and I'm positive that a massive Japanese naval force moving to the Atlantic would put both the U.S. Navy and the Royal Navy on very high alert. No surprise anymore. Plus, they would have to get their troop ships that far as well -- and the moment a report came in that the Japanese force contains large numbers of troop ships, everyone would know an invasion was imminent. It's quite possible that, at that point, the U.S. Navy and Royal Navy would do their best to intercept the fleet and sink the troop ships.

So, it would be a west coast landing ... except Japan having to take Hawaii would immediately put the Japanese navy at odds with the U.S. Navy and put U.S. industry on a war footing. There would be no surprise, and it would most likely take Japan several months (if not longer) to pacify Hawaii and take over base operations (even assuming the Japanese were successful at taking Hawaii).

So given the Axis's lack of modern naval power and even fewer numbers of landing-capable ships and only a handful of aircraft carriers, 1937 would have been an abysmal time to try and take such a vast area as the United States, thousands of miles from any friendly shore.
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