Houston residents asked to give input on Texas' $12 billion bullet train (home, cost)

[oceangaia]

Originally Posted by Matadora

The problem with lay folks such as yourself is ...

Stop. Time for you to disclose if you are affiliated with this project or the rail industry. Clearly you do not consider yourself a "lay folk".

[oceangaia]

A new report estimates the Texas bullet train could cost taxpayers $21.5 billion and concludes that privately funded high speed rail is not a feasible mode of transit outside of the Northeastern United States.
The report from the Reason Foundation estimates that the proposed Texas Central Partners project between Dallas and Houston will run at a $537 million annual operating deficit over the its first 40 years of operations.


https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/n...yers-21-5.html


From $12 billion to $21 billion without driving in a single railroad spike. That's the problem with pie-in-the-sky projects like this. It's not real money. It's not even monopoly money. It's fantasy money.

[oceangaia]

The bullet train economics are based on fantasies of 5 million passengers by 2025 and 10 million by 2050.

Critics, however, say those figures are unrealistically optimistic. A 2017 study of the project by the libertarian Reason Foundation projected 2035 bullet-train ridership at just 1.4 million. The disparity comes mainly because the foundation says far fewer Texans will switch from passenger vehicles to rail than Texas Central believes.
The foundation and others also point out that Amtrak’s nearly 17-year-old, high-speed train between Washington D.C. and Boston—a corridor that includes more than 15 percent of the entire U.S. population—carried only about 3.5 million passengers in fiscal 2016.
https://www.dmagazine.com/publicatio...-numbers-game/


Where do those numbers come from? Texas Central Partners, the firm behind the rail project, estimates that about 14 million people travel between Houston and Dallas, and they hope to capture about 36 percent of that traffic by 2025. Korson finds this overly optimistic and makes a comparison to Amtrak’s high-ish speed Acela line, which travels between Washington D.C. and Boston and accounts for about 2 percent of all passenger traffic in the high-density northeast corridor. Can the bullet train capture more ridership share than Amtrak enjoys in the Northeast? Korson doesn’t believe so, and he argues that the rail project’s finances will eventually unravel, if it ever gets built in the first place.
https://www.dmagazine.com/frontburne...off-the-rails/

[Matadora]

Love this comment found in the comment section at the end of the article.

Jim Vance

Feb. 24 @ 1:59 p.m. | Registered Texas Tribune User

Jeff Kirk, do you have 40+ years of professional engineering experience working in transportation and development in Texas, MANY other parts of the US, and a dozen or more countries in Europe, Asia and Africa? I do, and you are little more than a simple-minded idiot spouting NIMBY blather -- possibly just a troll, but certainly an idiot.

How to pay for a $12 billion bullet train without asking Texas for money

[Sollaces]

Originally Posted by Mr. Krinkle

It's a 1hr 15m flight without delays. You also need to arrive at the airport appriximately 45 minutes early to deal with security, and leave the house hoping there isn't any traffic on the way to the airport. Then you have to figure in parking or shuttle service if you are driving yourself. I live in the loop and I would probably leave my house around 10am for a noon flight. That would put me in Dallas at 1:15 (if on time), and then have to mess with deboarding and another 10 minutes until I got out of the airport.

I would gladly pay a little more not to bother to bother with all that. Just get to the train station and be in Dallas in 1hr 30m.

Depending on where the terminal is in Houston, you'll be fighting traffic to get there. Then fighting to get your spot.. Or maybe they'll have advanced tickets.

Now I don't know if this bullet train will be like Metro. When fans wanted to be at the parade for the Astros, Metro couldn't carry them all. Will something like this happen with this bullet train for fans wanting to head up to see a game?

https://www.click2houston.com/news/m...-astros-parade

[bu2]

Originally Posted by oceangaia

A new report estimates the Texas bullet train could cost taxpayers $21.5 billion and concludes that privately funded high speed rail is not a feasible mode of transit outside of the Northeastern United States.
The report from the Reason Foundation estimates that the proposed Texas Central Partners project between Dallas and Houston will run at a $537 million annual operating deficit over the its first 40 years of operations.


https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/n...yers-21-5.html


From $12 billion to $21 billion without driving in a single railroad spike. That's the problem with pie-in-the-sky projects like this. It's not real money. It's not even monopoly money. It's fantasy money.

It was a disappointing piece. The whole thing, rather than a reasoned analysis, was a hit piece on the project. They were trying to persuade people it was bad from the first charts with questionable assumptions. I am not expert enough to know whose projections are better, but its clear the Reason Foundation (as well as Texas Central) had a conclusion they wanted to reach. But Texas Central has to sell knowledgeable investors if they want to get the project rolling. We should give them the chance.

The reality is that the rail line intends to make money from real estate development, much like freight rail did in developing freight lines across the country in the 19th century. They intend to massively develop the areas in South Dallas and around Northwest Mall where they are putting stations.

There's nothing that forces the state to take it over if it fails. The investors are the ones out the $12 billion. Houston-Dallas is an ideal location for the line. Airlines in Europe have been and airlines here will be happy to let trains take over the short haul routes while they continue the profitable longer haul routes. And our airports and flight paths are continuing to get closer to capacity.

[K LoLo]

Originally Posted by bu2

It was a disappointing piece. The whole thing, rather than a reasoned analysis, was a hit piece on the project. They were trying to persuade people it was bad from the first charts with questionable assumptions. I am not expert enough to know whose projections are better, but its clear the Reason Foundation (as well as Texas Central) had a conclusion they wanted to reach. But Texas Central has to sell knowledgeable investors if they want to get the project rolling. We should give them the chance.

The reality is that the rail line intends to make money from real estate development, much like freight rail did in developing freight lines across the country in the 19th century. They intend to massively develop the areas in South Dallas and around Northwest Mall where they are putting stations.

There's nothing that forces the state to take it over if it fails. The investors are the ones out the $12 billion. Houston-Dallas is an ideal location for the line. Airlines in Europe have been and airlines here will be happy to let trains take over the short haul routes while they continue the profitable longer haul routes. And our airports and flight paths are continuing to get closer to capacity.

This is where I disagree. What happens if it fails? They just let it sit? The state or Feds would have to take it over, and operate at most likely a huge deficit (since it failed, you can assume its not doing what it was supposed to do). That's a pretty big risk.

[oceangaia]

Originally Posted by bu2

It was a disappointing piece. The whole thing, rather than a reasoned analysis, was a hit piece on the project. They were trying to persuade people it was bad from the first charts with questionable assumptions. I am not expert enough to know whose projections are better, but its clear the Reason Foundation (as well as Texas Central) had a conclusion they wanted to reach. But Texas Central has to sell knowledgeable investors if they want to get the project rolling. We should give them the chance.

The reality is that the rail line intends to make money from real estate development, much like freight rail did in developing freight lines across the country in the 19th century. They intend to massively develop the areas in South Dallas and around Northwest Mall where they are putting stations.

There's nothing that forces the state to take it over if it fails. The investors are the ones out the $12 billion. Houston-Dallas is an ideal location for the line. Airlines in Europe have been and airlines here will be happy to let trains take over the short haul routes while they continue the profitable longer haul routes. And our airports and flight paths are continuing to get closer to capacity.

You're disappointed with that article you call a hit piece and I'm disappointed with all the cream puff articles that are propaganda pieces.

Making money from real estate development is fine by me so long as the game is played fair and TCP doesn't grab more land than needed for ROW to divvy out to special investors.

It's not just the private investors at risk. TCP plans to use federal loans. When loans are not repaid the taxpayer takes the loss. The state may be protected from legal liability (until the Senate bill gets challenged in court and tossed out), but there will be tremendous pressure to do something with 100 miles of unfinished track besides let it rust over the next 100 years.

It's a pointless discussion though because this thing will never get off the ground. I had no idea they had only conned $75 million from investors. Sounds like the investors (like the public) thinks it's a great idea... until it's time to write a check.

[Mr. Krinkle]

Originally Posted by Sollaces

Depending on where the terminal is in Houston, you'll be fighting traffic to get there. Then fighting to get your spot.. Or maybe they'll have advanced tickets.

Now I don't know if this bullet train will be like Metro. When fans wanted to be at the parade for the Astros, Metro couldn't carry them all. Will something like this happen with this bullet train for fans wanting to head up to see a game?

https://www.click2houston.com/news/m...-astros-parade

1. You had 500,000 people trying to get into downtown at once during the parade. This isn't a city train.
2. You will get a seat assigned when you purchase a ticket. There will most likely be 1st class, business class, and coach options.
3. Northwest Mall is a decent location. It's easy to get to for a lot of the city.

[WRM20]

Originally Posted by K LoLo

This is where I disagree. What happens if it fails? They just let it sit? The state or Feds would have to take it over, and operate at most likely a huge deficit (since it failed, you can assume its not doing what it was supposed to do). That's a pretty big risk.

Why would anyone have to take it over? If it fails, it fails. Let it rot. Give the land back to the owners it came from, if eminent domain was involved. Of course, if the new operator gets all the infrastructure for pennies on the dollar, it will be far easier to make a profit.