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Looks like it will brush the Outer Banks and then head straight for Cape Cod. Same exact path as last years hurricane at this time. You gotta bet the Weather Channel people are feeling blue right now, they really hyped this.
FWIW, the new 12Z European model has the worst case scenario for NYC... basically Irene makes landfall as a roughly strong category 3 in Cape May, NJ while heading N/NNE just over or to the left of NYC as a very large category 2... the storm surge from such a storm would be beyond imaginable considering the funneling effect of the coastline near New York.
Fortunately it is just one model, and there is still enough time for the path to change from that (though the European model is generally the most accurate)
Wouldn't that be so funny? I just moved from Miami...been in Maine three months...and there's a slight possibility.
C'mon.
When I think Maine, or New England for that matter, I do not think, "hurricanes".
Oh well, having been through them before, at least I know what to do. Just hope others here do, as well. Although, considering the preps they make for winter time, they should be ok if they pay attention.
Wouldn't that be so funny? I just moved from Miami...been in Maine three months...and there's a slight possibility.
C'mon.
When I think Maine, or New England for that matter, I do not think, "hurricanes".
Oh well, having been through them before, at least I know what to do. Just hope others here do, as well. Although, considering the preps they make for winter time, they should be ok if they pay attention.
It will be far worse where it hits in much warmer open water with the counter clockwise flow than near you. I shudder at what could happen in say Nantucket or the eastern end of Long Island with the right conditions. I personally saw the aftermath of Andrew in Miami and Katrina along the Mississippi coast. Even the CAT 1 that hit Galveston three years ago caused catastrophic damage from storm surge on the low lying parts of the barrier island.
FWIW, the new 12Z European model has the worst case scenario for NYC... basically Irene makes landfall as a roughly strong category 3 in Cape May, NJ while heading N/NNE just over or to the left of NYC as a very large category 2... the storm surge from such a storm would be beyond imaginable considering the funneling effect of the coastline near New York.
Fortunately it is just one model, and there is still enough time for the path to change from that (though the European model is generally the most accurate)
I've been reading this thread but I don't know what some of things you say mean. What is the 12z European model?
Someone else upthread talked about Oz.. or Dz.. what does that mean?
I've been reading this thread but I don't know what some of things you say mean. What is the 12z European model?
Someone else upthread talked about Oz.. or Dz.. what does that mean?
thanks, Laurie
0Z and 12Z represent the initial times computer models are run (some models also have 6Z and 18Z runs)
Z= Zulu time, GMT, or UTC. During summer/daylight time, subtract four to get Eastern Daylight Time... and during standard time, subtract five to get to Eastern Standard Time.
The model initialized at 8 AM EDT... it takes quite a while for all of the calculations to be run, and the images begin to be released around 2 PM EDT.
The European Model is the major global meteorological computer model run by the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting).
Other major global models include:
GFS - Global Forecasting System (released by NCEP, or the US National Centers of Environmental Prediction)... this is formerly/sometimes still called the AVN or Aviation model.
CMC- Canadian Meteorological Centre global model (in Canada and other places it is sometimes referred to as the GGEM model)
UKMET- United Kingdom MetOffice global model
For hurricanes specifically, there are two dynamical hurricane models:
GFDL- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory hurricane model
HWRF- Hurricane-Weather Research and Forecasting hurricane model
There are still yet several statistical models, with the main one being for hurricane intensity (SHIPS or DSHPS [Decay-SHIPS] model)
...and then there are many others that aren't as important to look at such as NOGAPS, JMA, NAM, LBAR, BAMS/M/D, etc.
thanks for the explanations. I really appreciate it. I was getting a little lost when reading the posts here and now they all make more sense.
Since i live in Staten Island one of the little boroughs of NYC.. do you think I should prepare for this?
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