Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,277 posts, read 2,801,130 times
Reputation: 1932
So does the JTWC
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.5N 87.8W TO 12.8N 92.6W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 262330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 88.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.6N 88.1W, APPROXIMATELY 2081 NM ESE OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOW LEVEL TURNING AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 26/2138Z 37GHZ SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER. DEEP CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN REGION. RECENT ASCAT DATA REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 20- 25 KT WINDS ENCIRCLING IT. SSTS ARE 29-30 DEGREES ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTLINE. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10-15 KT) AND FORECASTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VWS (5 KT). UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MOSTLY NORTHERLY, WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW SUPPORTING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN REGION. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
5amEST Friday Oct27:
-System on the West side (Pacific) of Central America has become Tropical Storm Selma.
-System on the East side (Atlantic) of Central America still at 50% chance of development, heading generally towards Cuba, S FL, Bahamas region as an area of disorganized showers at the moment.
Appears GFS model kicks the disturbance (93L) heading towards Cuba, S FL, Bahamas out to sea and develops a different Low Pressure for the Northeast impacts for Sun/Mon. Will see if Euro agrees this afternoon or not.
2pmEST/AST Friday Oct27:
-"93L" in NW Caribbean moving away from Central America now has 80% chance of developing into a Depression or named Tropical Storm between now and Saturday. Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings may be issued for Cayman Islands, portions of Cuba & Bahamas soon. South Florida likely to see scattered heavy rains.
5pmEST/AST Friday Oct27:
-"93L" has now been classified as "PTC18" - Potential Tropical Cyclone 18. This just lets the NHC issue Watches/Warnings and produce an official "cone map" essentially. No real changes. Hurricane Hunter recon aircraft investigating storm now which is still a disorganized blob of scattered showers but becoming better organized and may have a TD or named TS soon.
Winds 40mph, moving NNW 6mph, pressure 1006mb. Chance of formation still 80%. Has the winds but is lacking a well defined center.
NHC:
"HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The system has the potential to produce the following rainfall totals:
Northern Honduras: Additional 1 to 3 inches through Friday night. Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba and northwestern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides.
South Florida including the Florida Keys: 3 to 5 inches, isolated maximum of 8 inches possible. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in Cuba Saturday and the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night."
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,277 posts, read 2,801,130 times
Reputation: 1932
JTWC makes no mention yet of the LLCC South of Chuuk. This appears to me to be high chance formulation within 5 days. It's position and distance to land fall means it is likely to become major.
Saturday morning Oct28 PTC18: NHC cone map shows it may loose tropical characteristics by Monday and become a large Low just off US East Coast. GFS model now keeps storm riding up cold front into New England area but also develops another bigger Low for NorthEast impacts, PTC18 would feed it moisture. Euro either keeps out to sea or brings storm/strong winds into New England region:
Some High Wind Watches and many Flash Flood Watches up in the NorthEast. I think Flash Flooding from inland rains will be the biggest overall threat followed by winds/tree/power issues, localized surf issues.
Last edited by Psychoma; 10-28-2017 at 05:39 AM..
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
