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First aircraft recon into Florence on approach, follow along in near real time here, wouldn't expect anything too exciting though...maybe starting to re-strengthen but slowly today likely, hurricane again maybe today or tomorrow: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
So...two camps in the models? We'll see where they jump around to later today and this weekend. Lot can change still and this is only part of the many models out there. The model spread is still very high from FL to out to sea:
Hurricanes are stressful. Even if you are prepared, well stocked, have plans to leave, etc. The stress level? Does not decrease. Ever.
I met a woman last year who was a transplant to FL. She said she always thought people were so stupid, as in why don't they leave? Why are they waiting? She said she used to yell at the tv during storm coverage. Then she experienced Irma. With it's will it/won't it, wobble wobble wobble, which coast will it hit? where will it turn?
Then she understood. You do not know until about 24 hrs prior where landfall will be. And that last 20-30 mile wobble? Means all the difference in the world. People who have never experienced a hurricane do not ever understand this. So you can have plans a, b, c, d for every possible situation. You are still stressed because of the uncertainty. You do not know which plan you will use. Or when to pick one.
That being said, thanks to everyone who posts meaningful info here. The info is very well received by those of us in hurricane land.
11am cone map just out (next is 5p), remember the cone just represents where the center point/eye of storm could be in time so could be heading towards land or curving out to sea is what this represents):
Yes, rip current threat will increase this weekend along portions of the US East coast, this is not from the current state of Florence but when it generated large waves when it was a Cat4 a few days ago. That's what we're seeing. So it may just be some, but then as Florence restrengthens off the SE US coast we'll see that increase substantially.
Oh yeah, it was a Cat 4 before. Sometimes I forget how far out the effects can be as far as waves. I'm thinking the current pattern also supports rip currents too though. We get them a lot here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma
So...two camps in the models? We'll see where they jump around to later today and this weekend. Lot can change still and this is only part of the many models out there. The model spread is still very high from FL to out to sea:
That recurve is what's keeping me on edge. lol
Updated NHC has 3 days of Cat 4 status and man so close to a landfall as a Cat 4?
Current Map with temps. Gordon and the stalled front producing 3-10" of rain past couple days.
Currently in the 80s in Carolinas. I'm pretty sure they are all keeping tabs on Florence by now. I hope.
Very true - prepare now while weather is nice and stores stocked - and hope it misses you -
Yup.. agree. I have experience with big storms here (NorEasters, Snow, & Tropical) and its always best to stock up and pick up something 4-7 days before rather than 1-3 days before. It's chaotic and out of stock if you wait.
You can always return something later if you didn't need or use it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by newtovenice
Hurricanes are stressful. Even if you are prepared, well stocked, have plans to leave, etc. The stress level? Does not decrease. Ever.
I met a woman last year who was a transplant to FL. She said she always thought people were so stupid, as in why don't they leave? Why are they waiting? She said she used to yell at the tv during storm coverage. Then she experienced Irma. With it's will it/won't it, wobble wobble wobble, which coast will it hit? where will it turn?
Then she understood. You do not know until about 24 hrs prior where landfall will be. And that last 20-30 mile wobble? Means all the difference in the world. People who have never experienced a hurricane do not ever understand this. So you can have plans a, b, c, d for every possible situation. You are still stressed because of the uncertainty. You do not know which plan you will use. Or when to pick one.
That being said, thanks to everyone who posts meaningful info here. The info is very well received by those of us in hurricane land.
While it's true we wont know "EXACTLY" where landfall will be until within 24hrs out, we'll have to see how far out the Hurricane strength winds extend. It could be 15 miles from center it could be 150 miles. Pretty sure waiting last minute hoping for the "wobble" is the last thing you want to do when you're within 100 miles of the center..
Not sure where you are but hope nothing happens there. Keep us posted! Thanks.
And straight into the coast looks to account for half of hurricane landfalls in GA which is safely tucked into the coast enough to miss most storms: Attachment 202205
If you've been to Tybee, St. Simons, and Jekyll Islands in Georgia, you'll notice that the houses there aren't on stilts. It's quite a contrast from what you'd see along, say, the North Carolina coast. There's a reason for this. Georgia has not had a direct perpendicular strike by a major hurricane since the 1890s. There were only 2 hurricanes to directly impact Georgia since then, one of them being hurricane Matthew which came in at an angle scraping the coastline (and thus weakening). The other was 1979's David which did the same thing.
A perpendicular strike on Georgia by this hurricane would be devastating. The caved in coastline makes Georiga miss hurricanes more, but also amplifies storm surge in that very rare case that they do get a direct hit. All those houses on the barrier islands, gone.
Yup.. agree. I have experience with big storms here (NorEasters, Snow, & Tropical) and its always best to stock up and pick up something 4-7 days before rather than 1-3 days before. It's chaotic and out of stock if you wait.
You can always return something later if you didn't need or use it.
While it's true we wont know "EXACTLY" where landfall will be until within 24hrs out, we'll have to see how far out the Hurricane strength winds extend. It could be 15 miles from center it could be 150 miles. Pretty sure waiting last minute hoping for the "wobble" is the last thing you want to do when you're within 100 miles of the center..
Not sure where you are but hope nothing happens there. Keep us posted! Thanks.
The problem is that everyone in SoFL and SWFL is 100 miles from the center at some point, and that's why it can be difficult to decide what to do. And storms change dramatically very very quickly as we've seen the last few years.
It looks like right now we are out of the danger zone, but won't be comfortable with that until Tuesday. Storms do strange, strange things. They can ramp up and ramp down. The can change direction. They can turn the slightest bit and go on a different trajectory, ie east coast vs west coast of FL. And when you have 50+ models running, with all different predictions, it really isn't science so much as a guessing game. So we prepare, and plan, and guess, and act. And I think it's easy for people who haven't been in the situation to make these decisions, to say it's an easy call to make. It's not.
This thing has been trending south the entire time... why do I feel like the NHC will start recognizing a westward track toward central/north FL? I hope that's not the case because NC/SC are sparsely populated in comparison, but my gut is telling me FL or GA.
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