Florence earlier this evening:
Ok, let's get started...
How rare would a Cat 4 landfall be?
-Only 4 have been known to hit GA, SC, or NC (Unnamed 1898, Hazel 1954, Gracie 1959)
How rare would a Cat 3 landfall be?
-Appears only 6 have occurred GA, SC and NC and 5 of those were in the 1800's, other was Fran 1996)
So this is indeed a potential rare event unfolding which adds to the issue of some people not being prepared enough until it's too late. Remember Hurricanes are rated as Categories 1 through 5 which is solely based on sustained wind speed (
Saffir-Simpson Scale).
Wind damage, just like earthquakes, is exponential the higher the numbers the more damage occurs. Such as: a 15mph wind speed difference doesn't mean much with a Tropical Storm but when a Cat 3 or 4 are in play that's a larger difference.
Meetings are already scheduled for Monday to determine who will be receiving
evacuation orders, likely to be issued by Tuesday. We are in the time frame that evacuations will likely need to be completed by Wednesday night. So that means a lot is about to change quickly.
Now let's look at what a cone map is really telling you:
-The cone getting larger is not the storm size...it's where the EYE/CENTER point could be in time and the size of the cone is based on the average error forecast that far out in time from where the center of the storm actually ends up. *So the cone map is telling us the center could approach the SC/GA border up to SE VA or just out to sea. So don't say the forecasters keep changing where it will make landfall because the official cone map has only been shrinking. Yes the models seem to go for more of a SC/NC area hit today, but we need to wait for that to hold before confidence go's up. The constant little jumps mean confidence is low still, but hopefully narrowed down shortly.
5pm shown:
The following will assume the storm approaches the Carolina coast as a Cat3 or Cat4 (subject to change) -No real details, just basic land-falling hurricane info for that range:
Winds:
-Hurricanes are rated on sustained wind speeds. Winds are always highest in the eye wall (the center ring that surrounds the clearer eye/center point) with the strongest typically seen on the NorthEast side of the eye. There can be even higher speed wind gust lasting a few seconds at a time as well mixed in. In the US, roofs typically start to give way to some degree around 90 to 110mph here and there (That's only Cat2 to border line Cat3 wind speeds by the way). Trees and power lines start to go down here and there at 40+mph which doesn't seem like much, and it's not really, but the wear and tear of hours of that with saturated grounds starts to bring them down. Work crews will try to restore power until it's unsafe and then you have to wait until its over and hope they get to your neighborhood soon.
With a possible larger storm (Cat3/4) keep in mind even as the storm weakens after landfall that hurricane force winds will likely travel well inland, even up to 100miles is possible. So this will not just be a coastal storm. See Hugo as an example that hit just North of Charleston, SC and even Charlotte, NC received winds around Cat1 speed causing extensive tree and power damage. This storm has the potential for far reaching effects.
Storm Surge:
Storm surge is the entire body of water rising with the waves on top.
It accounts on average for over 50% of hurricane deaths in the United States. It is not a joke, it is not to played with, once you decide to stay you are stuck with your decision. Heed all evacuation orders especially if in potential surge flood zone.
Keep in mind waters start rising hours before the center arrives...your escape routes can be cut off early even if the weather isn't too bad yet. It is not a wave. It is not a tsunami (I hear that often actually) but the end result can look like one hit. Think of it like a really high high-tide. It too is highest near the eye/center and to the East slowly getting lower the further you are from the landfalling eye. This is due to onshore wind flow direction, while the west side can push water away (off shore winds). Large bodies of water can have surge too such as Sounds. As the storm passes by the winds also change direction and surge can move from side of water body to the other side (like in a bay). Surge will travel over dry ground, it will travel up anything connected to the ocean (up bays, then up rivers, then up those little title ditches even, and I've witnessed it coming up the street storm drains along the gutter).
When will surge maps be issued for Florence?
-They are not out yet. When Watches/Warnings go up (likely late Monday or very early Tuesday) then about 30 to 90 minutes AFTER the 5 and 11am/pmEDT updates the interactive surge maps for the specific storm are released.
In the meantime, you can know if you are in a potential surge zone by visiting this interactive map linked just below. Be sure to change the storm Category to a 3 or 4 for this event and hope for less. The higher the storm rating the higher the surge typically.
http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/Map...4dd7b277935fad
Here is a *SAMPLE* screen shot image of what the map shows for a CAT4...it is NOT a forecast for Florence.
*EXAMPLE ONLY - NOT FOR FLORENCE*
*EXAMPLE ONLY - NOT FOR FLORENCE*
Rain:
Models continue to point at the possibility the storm stalls somewhere near landfall or a little further inland, possibly for several days. This sign has been constant in the ever changing models so inland needs to be prepared, don't get caught off guard, watch the forecast, more will be known about specific locations once the track is nailed down more.
Tornadoes:
Common in landfalling hurricanes as rain bands spiral in across the land. Typically most occur again in that North East corner/quadrant of the storm. These are typically small brief lived and can spin up and down with little to no warning.
Tips:
-
Don't tape your windows (this used to be the recommendation but new studies show it just helps make a piece of tape with jagged glass attached to it a projectile. So board up, shutter up, or leave alone).
-If you're trying to see what your're specific area will see via
your weather app, keep in mind they typically only use one model scenario out of dozens for that software. So find an actual human to help determine your impacts who knows your area (that's not me, I'm just some random person on a message board, I just like information
). Also on that note: IBM just updated the Weather Channel app so this will be a good test on how their system does (They bought TWC assets, everything except for the cable tv show itself the other year so if you noticed recent changes that's why).
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Gas pumps don't work when the power is out.
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Credit Cards can't verify and work when the power is out, hit up that ATM.
-Don't wait to get supplies last minute...
stores will start to close early when weather still nice because they have to prepare their store, get their employee's home in time to prepare their houses, etc.
I know that was a long read but wanted to bring up some points with so much information coming out from all over now.
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