Atlantic - Florence forms September 1, 2018 (traffic, Raleigh, record, days)

[Cambium]

Euro00z hits Wilmington, NC and stalls over the area. Oh boy.
Heading out for the day and wont be able to have updates until this afternoon or tonight.


Here are the latest hurricane model tracks. Hard to see but some of them stall as well. Some don't go out far enough in time to do it

[Cambium]

Quick look at the latest NHC median track. Has a Cat 3 at landfall.

It will rapidly strengthen from Tropical Storm into a Cat 3 next 24-36hrs

[Psychoma]

The overnight Euro ensembles have almost no members out to sea with majority into NC or SC coast as at around a Cat3:


And the actual Euro model that is made up of those Ensembles, and yes it stalls it out for about 5 days. The continued stall/slow moving signals are very troubling. Massive inland flood threat continues to increase (but not guaranteed yet).

[Psychoma]

And the 06z GFS just out while ago (EURO runs twice a day, GFS runs 4 times a day) and finally shifted more West with landfall into East NC and then stalls it out for about 4 days.

[Psychoma]

9Sept18 5aEDT - Estimated winds 70mph(110km/h), moving W 6mph(9km/h), pressure 989mb. NHC calling for Florence to become a hurricane today and possible rapid intensification start sometime tonight. Aircraft recon scheduled for later today to see if hurricane.

Morning imagery:
Visible looking better:


Infrared shows some trouble getting its outer bands going but it's getting there:



Official Key Message from the NHC's update:
"1. Florence is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane near the southeast U.S. coast by late this week, and the risk of direct impacts continues to increase. However, given the uncertainty in track and intensity forecasts at those time ranges, it's too soon to determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of those impacts.

2. Interests along the U.S. East Coast, particularly from north Florida through North Carolina, should closely monitor the progress of Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast will continue this week. These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 24.5N 55.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 24.6N 56.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 24.8N 58.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 25.3N 60.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 26.1N 63.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 28.2N 69.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 31.3N 74.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 34.4N 77.9W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND"




And this is when Tropical Storm Winds could start arriving (track and movement speed dependent, subject to change). TS winds are 39mph+ and usually the threshold for scattered downed trees and power outages to start occurring (may not seem like much but the wear and tear starts to bring things down). It's a good have your preparations completed by and be hunkered down deadline to go by.

[chicagogeorge]

Not good for the Carolinas


https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1038755255134113794

[twingles]

Eastern NC still has not recovered from the flooding from Hurricane Matthew 2 years ago. The whole area east of I95 is still struggling. Ironically the area closest to the coast did not get as bad flooding as areas such as Lumberton.

[LKJ1988]

If it could only be pushed 300 miles to the south and give me some rain.

[Psychoma]

Aircraft recon flying through Florence has found 75mph surface winds - will be upgraded to Cat1 hurricane at the 11am advisory, and this is inline with the NHc's forecast:



You can follow aircraft recon in near real time here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[Psychoma]

9Sept18 11aEDT - Winds 75mph(120km/h), moving West 6mph(9km/h), pressure 984mb. Cat 1 hurricane, NHC (National Hurricane Center) saying rapid intensification very likely - Cat3 within 24-36hours from now.

Will post more later this afternoon in depth with surge info, etc.

Key message from NHC...all about the water which accounts for, on average, 75+% of fatalities in the US in tropical systems:
"Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of two life-threatening impacts from
Florence: storm surge at the coast and freshwater flooding from a
prolonged heavy rainfall event inland. While it is too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into
the mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of
Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow
any advice given by local officials."