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Like in your post above about the "boy crying wolf," I think that's how everyone feels here. But even though we're inland, we have experienced devastating effects from hurricanes over the years...most recently, devastating flooding from Hurricane Matthew. Of course, y'all on the coast are definitely way more at risk.
Like in your post above about the "boy crying wolf," I think that's how everyone feels here. But even though we're inland, we have experienced devastating effects from hurricanes over the years...most recently, devastating flooding from Hurricane Matthew. Of course, y'all on the coast are definitely way more at risk.
Be careful!
I broke my ankle during Matthew’s flooding. I’ll be happy if I avoid that this go round.
In a couple days we'll start watching the rainfall amounts just to keep track of trends and see what they say. Also winds. Reminder, the strongest winds are on the right side of the Center. Keep us posted how folks are preparing there.
I thought about Harvey too. Headlines too.
Yup...That's exactly what I'm "starting" to wonder about.. Could just be a fluke trend but we'll see if they continue to show a slow down or stall with new updates..
Edit: Oh, you meant storms in general? Haven't noticed really.
No I meant hurricanes. I don't blink an eye at a trop storm. Naming/ tracking them is pretty dumb, IMO, they aren't hurricanes. It's just rain and a bit of wind. Like getting 2 in of snow in NH. No one really cares, and it's business as usual.
2nd recon flight into Florence about to take off from Bermuda. When it does you can follow along in near real time here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
Here was pic they took from todays earlier flight looking down at Florence's center:
The Gulfstream "Gonzo" flew around out there some today, about to land and stage out of St. Croix. These two planes will start delivering valuable data into the models.
11pm discussion. Important wording there. I would start accumulating bags of sand if we continue to see that slow down. Inland too
Quote:
Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018
Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern has continued to
gradually become better organized with an eye feature trying to
form. An average of all of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
tonight suggest that Florence is not a hurricane yet, but is close
to being one. The initial intensity is kept at 60 kt in this
advisory. The recent ASCAT data showed less winds than previously
observed by the NOAA plane when the cloud pattern was less
organized.
There is a band of convection trying to wrap around a possible eye
feature, and that is an indication that Florence has continued to
recover from the hostile shear environment, which brought the
hurricane from Category 4 to a tropical storm in a matter of a day
or so. The presence of developing upper-level outflow is a
good indication that the shear has decreased, and with the presence
of a warm ocean ahead, strengthening is anticipated. As indicated
by my predecessor, the official forecast continues to call for a
period of rapid intensification in about 12-24 hours, and Florence
is expected to reach major hurricane intensity between 36-48 hours
with additional strengthening thereafter. Florence is forecast to
be an intense hurricane on days 3 through 5 as it moves across the
warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between the Bahamas
and Bermuda, and then as it heads toward the southeast United States
coast.
Florence is still trapped within very light steering currents,
and is slowly moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 5 kt.
All indications are that this is about to change, as a strong ridge
of high pressure builds to the north of the hurricane. This
forecast flow pattern predicted by the global models will force
Florence on a general west-northwest to northwest track with an
increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast is basically on top of
the previous one, and is in the middle of the narrow guidance
envelope mainly for the next 3 to 4 days. By the end of the
forecast period, when the hurricane is approaching the U.S. coast,
the guidance envelope is wider and becomes bounded by the
northernmost GFS and the southernmost HCCA and the FSSE ensembles. One thing all models coincide at the longer range is with the
collapsing of the steering currents, resulting in a significant
reduction of the forward speed of the hurricane.
Key Messages:
1. Florence is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane near the
southeast U.S. coast by late next week, and the risk of direct
impacts continues to increase. However, given the uncertainty in
track and intensity forecasts at those time ranges, it's too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of those
impacts.
2. Interests along the U.S. East Coast, particularly from north
Florida through North Carolina, should closely monitor the progress
of Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and
follow any advice given by local officials.
3. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue into next week. These swells will result in
life-threatening surf and rip currents
Looks like the overnight GFS will have some of the first air recon data actually input to the models. So we'll see what it wants to show us in the morning. More data from more air recon flights in and around Florence combined with the additional weather balloon launches go into the models tomorrow as well. Hopefully more confidence in track starts to emerge next day or so.
What the NHC mentioned posted by Cambium above is what's also been mentioned here previously that some of the models stall the storm out after landfall which would result in possible large scale inland flooding. Time will tell. A lot can change still.
I'm having a hard time find this answer but does anybody know the wind speed that will cause an airport to shut down? Like what mph wind do they say, no more flights?
I'm having a hard time find this answer but does anybody know the wind speed that will cause an airport to shut down? Like what mph wind do they say, no more flights?
I don't think there's a set answer for that. May depend on wind direction in relation to the runways, plane size, etc. For a hurricane larger airports in the path generally have some sort of disaster planning timeline they follow, some are posted online others not. Don't forget the airlines can also make their own decisions as well affecting flights. And is the area going to be under an evacuation order or not may also affect timelines (have to give their own staff time to prepare the airport facility and head home to prepare their own homes) or is it a fly until xxmph? So hard to tell unfortunately until its unfolding from what I understand it seems. For emergency management many times the onset of Tropical Storm force winds (39mph+) is when timelines for evacuations are scheduled to be completed (start seeing scattered power outages at 40+mph in hurricanes).
I tried looking up Irma airport closures as a quick reference...looks like many closed 24-36hours before the eye/center made landfall.
Here is current onset of TS winds (subject to change based on track and movement speed) as of the Sat 11p NHC update for a reference:
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