Why is IL losing people? (Kansas, Ohio: 2014, house, income)

[dustin183]

I was looking at the numbers. Similar midwest states are gaining population while IL is losing population. Eg, OH, IN, WI, MN, Iowa are all gaining. I was just curious about this phenomenon.

It can't be due to weather since the other midwest states have essentially the same weather. Maybe it's due to jobs? Is there something particularly miserable about IL as compared to the other midwest states?

[Maintainschaos]

Well, according to the corrected census results, it isn’t—its population jumped past 13 million, so the estimates are likely inaccurate.

[dustin183]

Originally Posted by Maintainschaos

Well, according to the corrected census results, it isn’t—its population jumped past 13 million, so the estimates are likely inaccurate.

Can you share the link for that? Everything I looked at says it's losing.

Here is the wiki- if you sort by % loss from 2010-2020 then you see IL lost 0.14%. Only 3 states lost population in the this timeframe: WV, MS, IL.

And from 2020 to 2022 IL went from 12.8 M to 12.6 M. Now perhaps the 2022 number is wrong, if what you say is true. But from all of my googling I only see 12.582 MM for 2022.

So you are saying that IL gained 200k people from 2020 to 2022?

[dustin183]

To compare to its midwest brethren, from 2010-2020:

Ohio +2.3%
Indiana +4.7%
Wisconsin +3.6%
Minnesota +7.6%
Iowa +4.7%
Michigan +2%
Nebraska +7.4%
South Dakota +8.9%
Kansas +3%
Missouri +2.3% (though i would not consider Missouri [or KS] part of the midwest, but that is debatable)

[Maintainschaos]

A few places:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/19/u...nt-states.html

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/loca...2837753/?amp=1

https://greatcities.uic.edu/2022/05/...bureau-admits/

And from Census itself: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...-by-state.html

IL growth was undercounted by nearly 2%. MN and OH were also overestimated.

So if the current estimates are based on the data inaccurate count from the census that showed contraction instead growth, those estimates are going to be inaccurate as well.

[dustin183]

Originally Posted by Maintainschaos

A few places:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/19/u...nt-states.html

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/loca...2837753/?amp=1

https://greatcities.uic.edu/2022/05/...bureau-admits/

And from Census itself: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...-by-state.html

IL growth was undercounted by nearly 2%. MN and OH were also overestimated.

So if the current estimates are based on the data inaccurate count from the census that showed contraction instead growth, those estimates are going to be inaccurate as well.

Thanks. If this is true then the reported number on wiki and most of the internet (if you google) is off by over 400k people because it shows 2022 as 12.58 MM. That is quite a swing! More than 2% variance. I'm surprised no one has corrected wiki yet.

[dustin183]

The census link is quite interesting:

• Undercount: Arkansas (-5.04%), Florida (-3.48%), Illinois (-1.97%), Mississippi (-4.11%), Tennessee (-4.78%) and Texas (-1.92%).
• Overcount: Delaware (+5.45%), Hawaii (+6.79%), Massachusetts (+2.24%), Minnesota (+3.84%), New York (+3.44%), Ohio (+1.49%), Rhode Island (+5.05%) and Utah (+2.59%).

[Maintainschaos]

Originally Posted by dustin183

Thanks. If this is true then the reported number on wiki and most of the internet (if you google) is off by over 400k people because it shows 2022 as 12.58 MM. That is quite a swing! More than 2% variance. I'm surprised no one has corrected wiki yet.

Yeah I think the hard thing is that, even though the number was inaccurate and IL surpassed 13 million and grew at the 2020 census, the inaccurate number **was** what got reported for the official results, so I guess they won’t go back and correct it. But it does have big consequences…would IL have still lost a house seat if the number had been correct instead of incorrect? Probably but not sure. It definitely has a major effect on perceptions, though, which can have other consequences.

[wjj]

Looking at the census from 2010 to 2020 is misleading. There was an increase in IL population between 2010 and 2014 but since then, IL has been losing population. The 10-year census numbers do show a small increase due to that earlier significant increase in residents, but it has been downhill ever since. IL has been losing population for many years now. And, if you look at the IRS statistics that track the movement of AGI from federal tax returns, IL has had a net loss of many billions of income to other states. The people moving out are the ones you want to keep to fund the economy but they are now fueling other state's economies.


I think it is more accurate to look at what has happened in the last five years vs a five-year period from over a decade ago. Same goes for receiving states. Many of these states show an increase over the 2010-2020 census period but have experienced a huge surge the last five years.

[dustin183]

Originally Posted by wjj

Looking at the census from 2010 to 2020 is misleading. There was an increase in IL population between 2010 and 2014 but since then, IL has been losing population. The 10-year census numbers do show a small increase due to that earlier significant increase in residents, but it has been downhill ever since. IL has been losing population for many years now. And, if you look at the IRS statistics that track the movement of AGI from federal tax returns, IL has had a net loss of many billions of income to other states. The people moving out are the ones you want to keep to fund the economy but they are now fueling other state's economies.


I think it is more accurate to look at what has happened in the last five years vs a five-year period from over a decade ago. Same goes for receiving states. Many of these states show an increase over the 2010-2020 census period but have experienced a huge surge the last five years.

Thanks but what are the reasons for these changes?
I don't know much about IL. I was just looking at some properties for potential investment and learning more. But it seems the prop taxes are quite high there. And I was wondering about population trends as well. Would not want to invest somewhere that is on the decline.