Shorting blue chips (options trading, fund, trading, DJIA)

[Currency Pair Crocodile]

Would I be the biggest idiot if I short XOM's in the coming days? I see an opportunity. I am looking at other blue chips that I wanna short too. Been reading the yahoo finance message boards on XOM. A tons of short sellers run riot there

With the DJIA getting beaten way too often, this might as well work.

Stock gurus, your opinions are highly appreciated

[silverfox]

If your going to Short, pick the weakest sectors.

I use ETF's not individual stocks. Less risky.

Be patient and Stalk your Prey ......

[Currency Pair Crocodile]

Originally Posted by silverfox

If your going to Short, pick the weakest sectors.

I use ETF's not individual stocks. Less risky.

Be patient and Stalk your Prey ......

I was looking at LIT, but I guess it may not go any lower.

Any ETFs to look for?? Thanks!

[silverfox]

Originally Posted by Antlered Chamataka

I was looking at LIT, but I guess it may not go any lower.

Any ETFs to look for?? Thanks!

Go to Proshares.com and look at the products available.

Do some research on performance etc.

Don't dilly Dally.

Markets won't wait for your schedule.

[chet everett]

These days most shorts are part of elaborate hedged positions -- billions of dollars of oil contracts against a weather future with a short on the oil stocks as insurance.

Insider information aside there not really any way to truly "beat" those hedges are their billions. Sure you might get lucky and buy/ sell the position just ahead of the turn, but that is nothing to feel good about unless you really prefer the Vegas strip to Wall St...

If you truly believe a whole sector is over valued by the pros that track these things and make the market then I guess a sector ETF play would be the way to go, but again, what is your upside in that? Is it ever going to lead to repeatable strategy? Life is not a Hollywods script...


Put your money where it'll grow and keep adding to it seems to work for more funds / investors / super stars than anything exotic. It may lack glamour, but again if you want bling it ain't really investing. It's gambling...

[silverfox]

I read you Chet .. but I can tell you that for me, Trading in My Shorting Portfolio is up well over 200% so far this year.

I had 20% gain in just one position This last week in 3 days.

I usually but not always use ETF's and short mostly with "ultra short positions" which double the gain or loss.

When I'm not shorting I'm trading the Long Side.

To me Investing only on the Long Side is just a half a days work.

I trade every day there is Good Opportunity.... Been at it for 10 years now.

Call it "Gamblin" if you want, but it works for me.

My Real Investments are Core Positions which I hold for the Trend Runs.

[h152cc2]

You would be the biggest idiot if you shorted XOM when it is at a 5 year low.
That company is solid. Why would you short a company as good as XOM when it is at its 5 year lowest price?

Trust me-- there are much more buyers for XOM then sellers right now.

[h152cc2]

If anything... I'd short AAPL, or possibly NFLX. I feel like those are overbought on public perception (and not good fundamentals)...

Although AAPL and NFLX are GREAT companies-- but I don't think their price reflects their true value (which is much lower at this point in time I believe).

AAPL: P/E = 18.90
NFLX: P/E = 53.95

Compared to XOM: P/E = 11.76

[treasurekidd]

You would be the biggest idiot if you shorted XOM when it is at a 5 year low. That company is solid. Why would you short a company as good as XOM when it is at its 5 year lowest price?

Yup, short it at $59, then buy in later when it's flying up in the $89 range, right? Kind of backwards, isn't it?

If anything... I'd short AAPL, or possibly NFLX. I feel like those are overbought on public perception (and not good fundamentals)...

Although AAPL and NFLX are GREAT companies-- but I don't think their price reflects their true value (which is much lower at this point in time I believe).

AAPL: P/E = 18.90
NFLX: P/E = 53.95

Compared to XOM: P/E = 11.76

Yes, yes, yes!! I've never shorted a stock in my life, but Cyclone has it right in my opinion. I used reasoning like his to determine that XOM is actually a screaming buy right now. Why anyone would short it at or so close to the bottom is beyond me.

[Jason28]

If you do the opposite of what most people are doing in the market you'll tend to beat the average. Also, if you're having doubts about a buy or sell position with stock just go ahead and do options trading instead. You command way more leverage for a fraction of the cost. I made about 1,000% on shorting BP with put options. You'll never get that kind of return on stocks.