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Would I be the biggest idiot if I short XOM's in the coming days? I see an opportunity. I am looking at other blue chips that I wanna short too. Been reading the yahoo finance message boards on XOM. A tons of short sellers run riot there
With the DJIA getting beaten way too often, this might as well work.
Stock gurus, your opinions are highly appreciated
Last edited by Currency Pair Crocodile; 08-31-2010 at 08:35 PM..
These days most shorts are part of elaborate hedged positions -- billions of dollars of oil contracts against a weather future with a short on the oil stocks as insurance.
Insider information aside there not really any way to truly "beat" those hedges are their billions. Sure you might get lucky and buy/ sell the position just ahead of the turn, but that is nothing to feel good about unless you really prefer the Vegas strip to Wall St...
If you truly believe a whole sector is over valued by the pros that track these things and make the market then I guess a sector ETF play would be the way to go, but again, what is your upside in that? Is it ever going to lead to repeatable strategy? Life is not a Hollywods script...
Put your money where it'll grow and keep adding to it seems to work for more funds / investors / super stars than anything exotic. It may lack glamour, but again if you want bling it ain't really investing. It's gambling...
You would be the biggest idiot if you shorted XOM when it is at a 5 year low.
That company is solid. Why would you short a company as good as XOM when it is at its 5 year lowest price?
Trust me-- there are much more buyers for XOM then sellers right now.
If anything... I'd short AAPL, or possibly NFLX. I feel like those are overbought on public perception (and not good fundamentals)...
Although AAPL and NFLX are GREAT companies-- but I don't think their price reflects their true value (which is much lower at this point in time I believe).
You would be the biggest idiot if you shorted XOM when it is at a 5 year low. That company is solid. Why would you short a company as good as XOM when it is at its 5 year lowest price?
Yup, short it at $59, then buy in later when it's flying up in the $89 range, right? Kind of backwards, isn't it?
Quote:
If anything... I'd short AAPL, or possibly NFLX. I feel like those are overbought on public perception (and not good fundamentals)...
Although AAPL and NFLX are GREAT companies-- but I don't think their price reflects their true value (which is much lower at this point in time I believe).
AAPL: P/E = 18.90
NFLX: P/E = 53.95
Compared to XOM: P/E = 11.76
Yes, yes, yes!! I've never shorted a stock in my life, but Cyclone has it right in my opinion. I used reasoning like his to determine that XOM is actually a screaming buy right now. Why anyone would short it at or so close to the bottom is beyond me.
If you do the opposite of what most people are doing in the market you'll tend to beat the average. Also, if you're having doubts about a buy or sell position with stock just go ahead and do options trading instead. You command way more leverage for a fraction of the cost. I made about 1,000% on shorting BP with put options. You'll never get that kind of return on stocks.
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