Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
You are just blindly flailing here trying to make something stick, I'm certainly not consumed by trying to make money. I regularly turn down higher paid positions because I currently can work from home and work relatively light hours. Furthermore you have no idea how much wealth I do or do not have.
You make less than 100k per yr.
You play stocks like they are the lottery. Hoping for some get rich scheme.
Your total net worth is less than 200k.
How am i doing.
Quote:
And you foolishly displayed your lack of investing acumen by jumping in and predicting the same. Good job, you sure know your stuff 7k vs. 12k nice.
Two different threads, two different times, way different content.
Quote:
The prediction of someone who said dija would be a 7k now doesn't really carry much weight though does it? They obviously haven't a clue.
Not if you bundle both threads into one incoherent gotcha.
Two different threads, two different times, way different content.
Not if you bundle both threads into one incoherent gotcha.
No, that's cherry picking. Counting the hits (I should say one hit, after every major opinion column said it was nearly certain to breach 12k) and ignoring the misses (the years worth of ranting a crash was coming) is only the sign of a nut or a huckster...and I don't see you selling anything.
What are you going to say if the economy doesn't collapse in Q4 2011? Another miss to say it was in different content, but your next prediction for the end will definitely be right? How many wrong predictions will it be before you finally give it up?
Galambos apostles have been ranting about the economic collapse since the 1960's, and we're still here. Do you really want to spend the rest of your life like these old nuts hiding away for their collapse? That makes the assumption about your "paranoid or bizarre delusions" didn't actually hit the nail on the head about a history of mental illness...and you are not getting help for it. Then get some help and live your life, instead of wasting it huddled in fear and waiting.
I'd just like to point out that as we look at the Dow Jones over a significant period of time, like here: Dow Jones Industrial Average: INDEXDJX:.DJI quotes & news - Google Finance, it shows no significant and reliable increase. In fact, it looks like a mountain range. Long periods of upturn are followed by catastrophic crashes. The probability of loss is much more than the likelihood of the same amount of game, even BEFORE taxes.
The thread starter seemed to imply the small blip "up" (which, like in the economy, is often just a case of bouncing along the bottom) is somehow indicative of a healthy system that should be invested in, and that the few increases show that the downsides always have an upside. I don't think so. Even if the system wasn't doomed to collapse as soon as the Fed stops printing worthless trillions, and the Baby Boom needs retirement investments to pay for food, I have found mutual funds and the stock market and such investments to be about as reliable as the lottery for returns.
Granted, those "in the game" who play the system, who have access to insider info and can act before us lowly peons even have a clue of what happened, can win this game, and win big. But I don't see it. I haven't experienced it.
For instance, if you have a 50% loss on your stock investments, and then later get a 50% gain, have you broken even? NO, you haven't. Aside from taxes and fees and other inherent costs that ensure EVERY little guy pays in a thousand ways, here what happens: You have $1,000 invested, and you lose half. Now you have $500. Then you make a 50% gain. Now you have $750. You'd have to have a 100% gain on your total investment, to make up for a 50% loss yesterday. How many people know this, and instinctively apply the CORRECT math to their own investments? Not many. And that's not even addressing how our ridiculously over-complex tax code and payment of taxes on paper gains and hidden fees and expense ratios and things like 12b-1 fees skew any understanding of your gain or loss. It is almost impossible to keep track of whether a stock is a loss or gain, until the thing is sold and the game is over. My point: the system is designed to screw everyone who is not an insider.
Take this real life example: about 15 years ago I put $1,000 in "Fundamental Investors" and $1,000 in Washington Mutual Investors, both with American Funds, in a retirement account. I moved jobs soon after and didn't add any more, and never touched the accounts, and let the dividends reinvest. The initial loads were paid separately and are not part of the account. Today they are worth $1,126.30 for Fundamental Investors, and $802.10 for Washington Mutual (in other words, less than my investment over 15 years ago). Yet the "average annual total return" for Fundamental over the last 10 years has been 5.44%--as if it earned 5.44% every year and compounded those gains. Over the lifetime of the fund, 11.8%. For Washington Mutual Investors, 10 year average annual total return of 3.3%, and lifetime return of 11.53%.
According to the hypothetical growth chart of a $10,000 investment (https://www.americanfunds.com/funds/...1&chart=growth) for the Washington Mutual account, my $1,000 investment should be worth somewhere around $6,254.00. Instead it is worth $802.10, and let's not even talk about the dollar devalution that has been over 40% in the last 10 years.
Anyone "in the business" want to explain why these, like all hundreds of other stock market investments we've had over the years, are NOT such a bad deal? Or am I just supposed to believe that no matter how much research was done, no matter which investment advisor was consulted, no matter which private investment clubs we belonged to, we just HAPPENED to pick losers every single time, while all the current statistics would imply that these would be good investments today?
Please, educate me, because it seems that this game is so rigged that nobody who isn't "in the game" could even break even.
how about the fact the decade saw 2 back to back recessions? ya think that had something to do with the poor performance?
how about if you go back further and look at longer time frames the gains are excellent. my own gains are around 1200% the last 24 years in my conventional mix of funds.
my gains in the other mix i use the permanent portfolio with the 2 recessions is still over 9% a year cagr
markets are only messengers of whats happening around us.
your trying to throw everything under the sun in to show why we are supposed to fail at investing but the reality is many many many of us with well constructed portfolios did well over the years .
the fund your picking out should be only a piece of your investments not your investment. in fact i can cherry pick fund examples that did great over the same time frame . look at fidelity low priced stock fund. thats one i owned since it came out. but even so 1 fund isnt a portfolio.
your trying to take poor portfolio planning and applying it to every investment market and every fund.
the fact is you picked funds that were only good if prosperity happened and only in one market segment . your un-diversified poor choices doesnt mean that no one made money,it means you didnt make money.
15 years ago the s&p stood at 740. today its 1286 and that includes no dividends in that number. on average dividends reinvested account for 1/3 of the entire index so in reality you are up more than the index shows... all you had to buy was an s&p 500 fund over that 15 year time frame you mentioned and you would have been up nicely .
listen,if you dont like to invest in the markets thats okay, they arent for everyone but you better well find someplace to generate passive returns . wealth for most of us eventually is created by capital gains not our incomes . you better have a plan and knowledge for growing yours. so far you appear to have failed at learning about portfolio planning.
Last edited by mathjak107; 10-31-2011 at 03:21 AM..
You make less than 100k per yr.
You play stocks like they are the lottery. Hoping for some get rich scheme.
Your total net worth is less than 200k.
How am i doing.
I don't even buy individual stocks, hell I don't even own any actively managed stock mutual funds. Our net worth has us on track to retire in our mid 40s, a few years from now.
Quote:
Not if you bundle both threads into one incoherent gotcha.
Throw as many smoke grenades out there as you want, you are the guy who in August foolishly predicted Dow 7k by now.
Then in one of the funniest posts I've seen on CD you are patting yourself on the back for revising it to 12k right at the end of October, saying it proves your insider trading knowledge.
The thread starter seemed to imply the small blip "up" (which, like in the economy, is often just a case of bouncing along the bottom) is somehow indicative of a healthy system that should be invested in, and that the few increases show that the downsides always have an upside. I don't think so. Even if the system wasn't doomed to collapse as soon as the Fed stops printing worthless trillions, and the Baby Boom needs retirement investments to pay for food, I have found mutual funds and the stock market and such investments to be about as reliable as the lottery for returns.
Where does it say to invest in anything? Where does it say it is indicative of a healthy system? It doesn't say either way, I simply never stated it at any point. Putting words into some ones mouth is sort of a dick move IMHO.
The point was that doomers point to every dip in the Dow and state the economy is going to collapse, but huge upswings 3x greater then the largest drop and they say the Dow no longer a reliable indicator. 3 threads are provided as a sample, and more are an easy forum search away. Is 1,500 points a "small blip up" compared to those predicting economic doom when the Dow drops 150 points?
If you raise minimum wage 4x, then you're going to have to raise the wages of everyone else who makes above that and prices will skyrocket.
Yes it would cause wage price inflation. That is the point. A 4X on the minimum wage should push the price of houses sustainably above the peak of the last bubble.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19
The "proportions" would stay the same and standards of living would not rise for the people at the bottom.
I could give a rate's a** about how well off or not the bottom is. What I care about is getting full employment in this decade. And probably the one after that as well. I want less than 5% unemployment sometime in the next 20 years. In order to get that you need to eliminate the dead weight loss in the economy. Lots of printed money and at least a 50% write off of debt by inflation. http://www.bearishnews.com/wp-conten...l-debt-gdp.jpg If you try to do that big a write off without inflation you will kill the banks. And without that much of a write off you just wont get economic growth. Take a look at Japan. They are more than 20 years into their popping real estate bubble and they haven't hit bottom yet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19
Say for example, my salary at my CPA firm stayed the same and suddenly the greeter at Wal-Mart was making more than me. Why would I not demand a raise seeing as how I went to college for 5 years and am working towards passing a rigorous exam? Are you also going to x4 my salary?
Well when the minimum wage went up you should have gotten a raise as well. Up to the new minimum wage. If you keep the top from moving and inflate the bottom by 400% then you should get a 50% reduction in the value of the dollar. That should leave the bottom with a 2X on their money. (That isn't what I'm after but that is what should happen.) How to keep the top from moving? If they don't get a raise then they get to keep the old tax rate. If they get a raise then they get the new very steep tax rate.
As far as your salary goes that would be between you and your boss for the amount above the new minimum wage. If he doesn't want to pony up then get a job at McDee's.
Quote:
Originally Posted by modeerf
It is a good plan if one was looking for solutions. This Bank owned government doesn't want solutions that take away their power.
The FED, Federal Government, Banking Goliaths want to keep their respective power. Not abdicate it to the people. Nor are any of them interested in the well being of others at the expense of losing control, power, or losing the competitive game of getting ahead.
I want solutions that is what I want. But they are going to lose their position because they have written too many loans. The total debt will come down. Without inflation it will come down in dollar amount and take the banks with it. With inflation it will come down as % of GDP but not in dollar amount and the banks will stay. That is the choice they face or ignore at their peril.
Quote:
Originally Posted by modeerf
If there are more minimum wage employees than CPA's. It would increase consumption and the movement of dollars. You would have more customers.
And you would be in a better position to ask for a raise.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19
but...there are all ready many more minimum wage employees compared to CPAs....
So if this plan of X4 the minimum wage goes through, tell me why I should bother to come to work? ...
That is why they would be giving you a raise because if they don't the will give your replacement a raise.
Quote:
Originally Posted by slackjaw
That is funny, people who acknowledge the many problems with the economy and certainly agree on lots of uncertainty are labelled "pollyana" for not buying into yet another financial collapse prediction.
Why are you still wasting your time, as many economic catastrophe predictions you've already been wrong on? A few months back Modeerf predicted Dow 7k for now, he was way off but now he's back as an expert with new doom predictions. Yawn.
http://www.bearishnews.com/wp-conten...l-debt-gdp.jpg The total debt is too high. It will come down. The fed and everyone is trying to stop it. They can keep it up for a bit but it will come down. The plunge protection team has a license to manipulate the market. The Dow will stay above 12k. The Dow has a P/E ratio of 20:1. The S&P 500 has a P/E ration of 9:1. A lot of the markets are being actively manipulated as well as the Dow. http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkl...ow-vs-gold.jpg The Dow priced in gold. It tells a different story than the Dow priced in dollars. It should bottom at 1 oz of gold to buy one share of the Dow. Or ½ oz. If the fed really wants to do something effective about the problems then a 4X on the minimum wage would do it along with enough printed money to eliminate the dead weight loss with the higher minimum wage. A tax on the principle on debt as well, and a national savings plan sized to get us trade neutral. Not a net importer or a net exporter.
The point was that doomers point to every dip in the Dow and state the economy is going to collapse, but huge upswings 3x greater then the largest drop and they say the Dow no longer a reliable indicator. 3 threads are provided as a sample, and more are an easy forum search away. Is 1,500 points a "small blip up" compared to those predicting economic doom when the Dow drops 150 points?
That's not correct. You consider me a doomer, and on a thread that was bemoaning a drop at the time, i called it higher. Which you got a great laugh out of, when i was boasting how great i was.
Note: I actually thought i deleted that part, which is why there is a double post right after it. Apparently it was more than i could stomach as well. (humility is a attribute i desire to have often it escapes me).
That's not correct. You consider me a doomer, and on a thread that was bemoaning a drop at the time, i called it higher. Which you got a great laugh out of, when i was boasting how great i was.
Note: I actually thought i deleted that part, which is why there is a double post right after it. Apparently it was more than i could stomach as well. (humility is a attribute i desire to have often it escapes me).
Are you really so arrogant that every time some one posts it is about you personally?
Seeing every post as being personal to you (the post you linked didn't adress you, you ignored the ones that I did), boasting how great you are, ignoring every time you are wrong, and telling me I got a laugh out of you on a thread I never posted on is not humility...it's delusional egocentricity. Seriously, what is wrong with you? I have never seen behavior like this outside of paranoid schizophrenics...why are you not getting help? I'm not trying to be mean, I am actually kind of sad that this is how you view and relate to the world.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
