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Or, you have nothing to back up your incoherent statements on one of the strongest performers and highest cash hoarder on wall street.
I think everything I said was pretty coherent, but if you didn't understand something let me know. Regardless, I stated, briefly, my reasoning but you want something inline with your dogma...... At this point its just on my "watch list" to see how things develop, but judging by the comments here and else where things seem to be heading in the right direction.
But in the case of Apple, a lot of the hype is coming from retail investors and that usually doesn't end well.... It is the increased interest by the average Joe that is starting to catch my attention.
In January 2009, 67% if Apple stock was held by institutional investors. Today 71% of the equity is owned by institutions. So from 2009 to 2012, a period over which the value of Apple's equity has increased by 600%, the rally has been driven disproportionally by institutional investors.
I get the idea that when your cabby tells you that he's buying Apple stock it is perhaps a signal to consider selling, but frankly, the numbers just don't indicate that that time has arrived.
In January 2009, 67% if Apple stock was held by institutional investors. Today 71% of the equity is owned by institutions. So from 2009 to 2012, a period over which the value of Apple's equity has increased by 600%, the rally has been driven disproportionally by institutional investors.
Umm....there is all sorts of wrong here. Firstly, just on the face of it, why would a few percent increase in institutional holders indicate that the rally is being driven, disproportionally, by institutional investors? You're utilizing some wild leap in logic here... But the figures on "institutional owners" doesn't even tell you the right thing in the first place as many "retail investors" own shares of Apple through mutual funds, etc.
But most importantly, prices are determined on the margin so 20~30% is sufficient to move the equity either up or down.... The 70% figure is actually on the low side, if you look at equities with little hype (e.g., Xerox) its between 80~90%.
Anyhow, its amusing how negative the reaction is to someone merely suggesting that AAPL may provide a good short opportunity in the near future.... Too much attachment....
I don't have any money in apple long or short. But historically, I can think of reasons to short it long term (or at least believe the stock will be neutral).
-Historically, every company runs into a wall or plateau. I don't think Apple will be any different.
Bethlehem steel? RCA?
Then it was GM. Sears was once the worlds largest retailer. In 1999, it was Microsoft, Cisco or Intel on top of the world.
Apple hasn't defied the laws of creative destruction. It's gotten a lot of mainstream press in the last 3-4 years (esp with Jobs passing). It seems like everything since $250-300 has been built into the stock.
-Plus being a technology company. Makes it even more difficult to stay on top for long.
How many technology companies in the last 50 years have stayed on top the way Apple has? Not for very long.
In 10 years, are we going to be looking at Apple the way we look at Cisco or Intel today? Very possible.
Umm....there is all sorts of wrong here. Firstly, just on the face of it, why would a few percent increase in institutional holders indicate that the rally is being driven, disproportionally, by institutional investors?
Institutional investors are acquiring shares more quickly than retail investors. If institutions were buying shares at the same rate as retail investors, then the relative ownership percentages would remain constant. It's a simple algebra problem.
Quote:
Originally Posted by user_id
You're utilizing some wild leap in logic here... But the figures on "institutional owners" doesn't even tell you the right thing in the first place as many "retail investors" own shares of Apple through mutual funds, etc.
Mutual fund managers, on the average, are going to be slightly more likely than retail investors to do some due diligence (after all, it's part of their lives' work). So even if the entire % increase in institutional ownership is attributable to mutual funds owned by retail customers, that hardly indicates that the "average Joe" is blindly crowding into the stock. In fact, I would suggest the opposite, that the average Joe's ownership of Apple stock, which is likely increasingly through mutual funds (due to the rising IO %), is being driven by fundamentals analysis performed on his behalf by mutual fund managers.
Again, this just brings me back to the point that there is very little evidence that ignorant investors are piling into Apple stock and driving up the price. In fact there is some evidence, such as increasing institutional ownership, which suggests the opposite may be true.
Quote:
Originally Posted by user_id
Anyhow, its amusing how negative the reaction is to someone merely suggesting that AAPL may provide a good short opportunity in the near future.... Too much attachment....
I don't own a single share of Apple common stock and have only minor exposure through my retirement. Frankly, I don't care what happens to the stock, but I find shorting this company to be a terrible idea, for all the reasons I've offered throughout this thread.
Quote:
Originally Posted by user_id
But most importantly, prices are determined on the margin so 20~30% is sufficient to move the equity either up or down....
I think this could be a valid argument and that it is hypothetically possible that there is a high "churn" among retail investors, that long-time holders are cashing in big gains by selling their shares to unwitting speculators. But there just aren't any indications or any good reasons to expect that this is happening right now with Apple.
Institutional investors are acquiring shares more quickly than retail investors.
And, as I pointed out previously, this says nothing about who is driving the rally. Apple has a large amount of non-institutional buyers, plenty to drive a rally.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ML North
Mutual fund managers, on the average, are going to be slightly more likely than retail investors to do some due diligence (after all, it's part of their lives' work).
You're talking about one class of mutual funds, namely actively managed funds. If you look at the major institutional holders of Apple you'll find that they are index funds, etc....no due diligence at all.
Anyhow, you're ignoring all the feedback involved in equities. Contrary to what you're trying to suggest, when a rally is driven by "average Joes" one would expect institutional ownership to increase as they pile into the equity trying to gain from the rally.... The "average Joe" is providing the fuel, but the rally is strengthened by the actions of all investors.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ML North
very little evidence that ignorant investors are piling into Apple stock and driving up the price.
You're trying to find "fundamental" based evidence for something that is psychological in nature, look at the right sort of things and the evidence is there staring you in the face....
Ok everyone, since Apple has taken a "dip" off its highs, I want to know what the forecast is for this stock from the stock pickers on this site...lets see if you guys have the guts to give a forecast here...
1. Is it just a temporary setback and you see it cruising to 800-1000 bucks a share?
2. Is the party over and now is the time to short?
Lets hear your guesses!
We will revisit this thread at a later date to see if you are correct
I think this dip is temporary. Looks like MMs wicked play. If you look at options chain on Yahoo, for April 21 expiration, there is tremendous open interest between 590-625.
If I have to guess, they will make sure it closes below or around 590 tomorrow and then starts rising from Monday.
May be it will drop from Wednesday to Friday next week and then continue the ascent.
I think this dip is temporary. Looks like MMs wicked play. If you look at options chain on Yahoo, for April 21 expiration, there is tremendous open interest between 590-625.
If I have to guess, they will make sure it closes below or around 590 tomorrow and then starts rising from Monday.
May be it will drop from Wednesday to Friday next week and then continue the ascent.
Now, if earnings are a miss, GOD help!
my guess, it will cross 750 by end of May.
So you are bullish, short term?
(Remember, you can't hedge.....its either one or the other)
(Remember, you can't hedge.....its either one or the other)
oh..yeah..I am bullish on AAPL.
I only have calls, never bought any PUTS
Ever expanding China market (this will be the quarter that reports 4S sales in China..so that should be a decent), upcoming iPhone 5, rumors around iTV (news of Cook visiting a video gaming console company on a Saturday), iPad Mini, GOD knows what else in their safe.
I understand there may be bumps on the way but this thing is going to be big. IMHO
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