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The problem with metals is the manipulation that goes on. It's hard to know what to believe. The fiat currency argument is persuasive, but it's touted by people in the business of selling gold and silver. A real estate person will never tell you that buying real estate is a bad idea. On the other hand, the Chinese, Indians, and lot's of others are buying every dip, loading up. So, who's right?
china is also heading for a landing of some kind which is bound to hit metal sales
1- an ounce of gold will still buy a similiar basket of goods 100 years from now
The value of gold has changed rapidly over the last few years in relation to other goods. If this were true, then the basket of goods would have gotten around 3~4 times cheaper in dollar terms over the last few years. Has that happened? Not even close...
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107
2- the markets will still be a mechanisim for transfering wealth from the impatiant to the patiant as they have been for the previous 100 years.
gold tanked today off the news of no further stimulus , not sure which talking head on bloomberg today said it but i think he was right , stocks and gold are the same trade right now , both are reliant on the sugar daddy which is BB , something else which adds further weight to this claim is that stocks like gold react poorly to a strong dollar due to the increased cost on overseas market for american goods
the turmoil in europe is not resulting in a flight to gold which proves what many people already knew , gold is not the ultimate safe haven , the dollar is
The value of gold has changed rapidly over the last few years in relation to other goods. If this were true, then the basket of goods would have gotten around 3~4 times cheaper in dollar terms over the last few years. Has that happened? Not even close...
Patience has nothing to do with market gains...
patiance has nothing to do with market gains ,correct , but it has a whole lot to do with investor gains. most folks do not stay invested long enough to insure their own success .
want proof ? morningstar and ibbotsen track small invester inflows and out flows from funds and the average investor get 1/3 the gain the funds they were in sees.
what ray lucia calls the science of money shows it takes at least 15 years of time to insure you wont sell into a down market.
could happen ? sure it can but it hasnt happened yet.
we have had long down turns but they always have had interim points where markets were higher and someone needing to raise cash could have done it.
buying time is just as important as buying assets. the shorter the time frame the greater the chance your dealing with coin toss odds.
Last edited by mathjak107; 06-07-2012 at 03:57 PM..
gold tanked today off the news of no further stimulus , not sure which talking head on bloomberg today said it but i think he was right , stocks and gold are the same trade right now , both are reliant on the sugar daddy which is BB , something else which adds further weight to this claim is that stocks like gold react poorly to a strong dollar due to the increased cost on overseas market for american goods
the turmoil in europe is not resulting in a flight to gold which proves what many people already knew , gold is not the ultimate safe haven , the dollar is
gold is the dollars competitor. as long as the world believes in the dollar the dollar will be the beneficiary of any flight to safety.
actually treasury bonds have been the flight to safety winners. watch TLT on those big market down days.
Last edited by mathjak107; 06-07-2012 at 04:19 PM..
gold tanked today off the news of no further stimulus , not sure which talking head on bloomberg today said it but i think he was right , stocks and gold are the same trade right now , both are reliant on the sugar daddy which is BB , something else which adds further weight to this claim is that stocks like gold react poorly to a strong dollar due to the increased cost on overseas market for american goods
the turmoil in europe is not resulting in a flight to gold which proves what many people already knew , gold is not the ultimate safe haven , the dollar is
something that has lost 98% of its value since 1913 (federal reserves inception) is the ultimate safe haven? The only thing its the "ultimate" of is perennial loser.
The United States is looking at, at least a trillion dollar deficit. Where is that money going to come from? How can you avoid inflation when a trillion dollars comes from nothing every single year with no end in sight?
When someone comes up with a truly logical answer to that question then I may begin to believe that gold and silver are not a great long term investment.
I've heard the velocity of money argument already, which seems to be pretty much true. However the bad news (for the dollar) is that the velocity of money is at extremely low levels right now, imagine if it picks up the dollar will really become trash.
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silver keeps going up, its up about 150-175% since 2010(it keeps changing), but do i think this will make you a millionaire like say gold? no, unless you really have a lot of it..
something that has lost 98% of its value since 1913 (federal reserves inception) is the ultimate safe haven? The only thing its the "ultimate" of is perennial loser.
The United States is looking at, at least a trillion dollar deficit. Where is that money going to come from? How can you avoid inflation when a trillion dollars comes from nothing every single year with no end in sight?
When someone comes up with a truly logical answer to that question then I may begin to believe that gold and silver are not a great long term investment.
I've heard the velocity of money argument already, which seems to be pretty much true. However the bad news (for the dollar) is that the velocity of money is at extremely low levels right now, imagine if it picks up the dollar will really become trash.
when the term dollar is used it means dollar denominated assets..
that can be bonds ,bills and notes. treasury bonds have had an amazing 30 year run, the long treasury bond has beaten stocks in the 1 year,3,5,10,20,25 year time frames.
its also the falling dollar value that had made these investments so lucrative for foreign investors and governments as they cashed in these dollars in their own currancy..
of course the tide has turned with issues in the euro and now we are the best house in the worst neighborhood again using the dollar for that flight to safety..
[quote=user_id;24645121]The value of gold has changed rapidly over the last few years in relation to other goods. If this were true, then the basket of goods would have gotten around 3~4 times cheaper in dollar terms over the last few years. Has that happened? Not even close...QUOTE]
while every investment swings up and down and at times and may be ahead or behind the general trend is still the same.
can you still buy that quality suit and a pair shoes like you did 100 years ago with an ounce of gold? i would stilL say yes.
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