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I wouldn't touch the stock market where it's at. Overvalued and full of fluff. Shorted DJI for the 2nd time in my life today. 1st time I ever beat the house.
Doesn't it look like a bear market is taking hold? Equities have nowhere else to go. Growth opportunity going forward is looking limited. Corporate profits have declined. All indicators point to a stagnant (at best) economy.
I wouldn't touch the stock market where it's at. Overvalued and full of fluff. Shorted DJI for the 2nd time in my life today. 1st time I ever beat the house.
You bet the house? I certainly hope not.
As for the market, I actually am kind of bearish right now. The market has been looking technically weak for awhile and now the sell-off seems to have taken hold. Will it be a bear market? Using the 20% drawdown as the definition of a bear market, maybe. I am looking more to the 1,900 level in SPX, but it is really hard to say where we will end up. I really don't think it will be anything like 08' because the economy is doing pretty well, but I could see some weakness through rest of the summer.
I wouldn't touch the stock market where it's at. Overvalued and full of fluff. Shorted DJI for the 2nd time in my life today. 1st time I ever beat the house.
Doesn't it look like a bear market is taking hold? Equities have nowhere else to go. Growth opportunity going forward is looking limited. Corporate profits have declined. All indicators point to a stagnant (at best) economy.
At this point this is just a correction. Volatility is still low, trading volume is still low - there are not panic selling yet. By saying that I have also say that each bear market starts from a simple correction. We have just to watch.
If we have deep correction and during this correction we see collapsing some "baloney" corporation, if this correction reveals that some stocks are greatly overpriced or it reveal some bubble in other unexpected place then it may start chain reaction when majority investors start selling in panic.
When we have increase in volume (S&P 500 average daily volume is about 20% lover than its average volume at the end of 2007) and or increase in volatility (14-day S&P 500 Absolute ATR move closer to 2%), then we may start to worry about market weakening into a bearish action.
At this point it is too early to speculate about recession or crash.
I wish it would but I doubt it. At best we can expect a selloff to around 17000, at worst we'll go up 150 tomorrow and shoot right back up to new highs. For whatever reason irrational exuberance and overvalued markets are the name of the game... lots of liquidity out there for the top 1% to throw around.
I'd like a selloff that can spike the VIX to 30 and get the bullishness indicators down to certain levels and I'll jump back in.. I have not been in since last December, waiting for a selloff when the dow hit 18000 that never really came to any significant degree.... just kind of meandering around in limbo.. 16,500 dow and I'll put everything back in... even though that's still somewhat overvalued.
A long term chart of the nasdaq should it break it's uptrend shows nothing but air to about 3750. Dow hard support level around 14,000... S&P around 1600... we'd have to fall hard, and fall fast, to break mid term support levels and not bounce though... I don't see it happening.
The night is still young and the party can still extend late into the morning.
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