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Old 02-03-2018, 11:33 PM
 
Location: East Coast of the United States
27,570 posts, read 28,673,621 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lizap View Post
1. One of the longest bull markets in stock market history
But the first 4 years of the bull market was merely retracing to the previous high.

We already had a pretty long period of underperformance in the stock market. The return from March 2000 to March 2013 was essentially 0%.

Even now, the stock market is merely 80% above the high it hit way back in March 2000.
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Old 02-04-2018, 12:00 AM
 
6,632 posts, read 4,305,411 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigCityDreamer View Post
But the first 4 years of the bull market was merely retracing to the previous high.

We already had a pretty long period of underperformance in the stock market. The return from March 2000 to March 2013 was essentially 0%.

Even now, the stock market is merely 80% above the high it hit way back in March 2000.
Technical analysts measure this bull market as starting from the low of the Great Recession crash.
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Old 02-04-2018, 01:00 AM
 
Location: Silicon Valley
7,650 posts, read 4,601,843 times
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So does anyone think decoupling could occur this time? (Last time it didn't help at all.)
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Old 02-04-2018, 01:39 AM
 
106,676 posts, read 108,856,202 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lizap View Post
Technical analysts measure this bull market as starting from the low of the Great Recession crash.
one of the things we saw is that this great recession was so bad that the economy took many many years to get to the point the leading indicators and job market generally showed way earlier .

so we may have been economy wise very delayed and the cycles are being strung out longer
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Old 02-04-2018, 05:30 AM
 
Location: East Coast of the United States
27,570 posts, read 28,673,621 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lizap View Post
Technical analysts measure this bull market as starting from the low of the Great Recession crash.
I know, but 9 years is a shorter term analysis as far as stock markets go.

Over longer time frames (like 30 years), the S&P 500 almost doubles every 10 years. So, given that it was 1000 in February 1998, we can reasonably expect it to hit 7500- 8000 by February 2028.

That is roughly 180% above where it is currently. Having said that, there are no guarantees.
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Old 02-04-2018, 07:17 AM
 
3,271 posts, read 2,190,026 times
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I think automation is going to drive a lot of people into unemployability. The next move for America would be to nationalize all its industries to protect itself from plutocrats and external governments. It will never happen though. These Plutocrats are not Americans. They are global citizens. Americans need to realize this to get their country back.
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Old 02-04-2018, 07:25 AM
 
106,676 posts, read 108,856,202 times
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all i know is being a seller of automation gear as a wholesaler we have had incredible demand for employees in all positions .

the company i worked for and still do some work for on my own went from 8 employees when i started in 1998 to 320 today in multiple states .

they broke over 100 million in sales last year , all owned by 1 man .. every company we interface with has seen incredible growth . everyone from our suppliers to lawyers and accountants saw huge increases in business and had to hire people . even siemens had to hire more people and open a local office to support us .

they are still hiring like crazy for all their locations . the company sells automation controls , electrical supplies ,pumps , motors , drives and motor controls .

demand in the industry has been insane with experienced employees with a customer following writing their own pay checks based on sales . all our competitors have been seeing the same thing and we have been pirating the best of breed from each other because of need .
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Old 02-04-2018, 07:32 AM
 
3,271 posts, read 2,190,026 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
all i know is being a seller of automation gear as a wholesaler we have had incredible demand for employees in all positions .

the company i worked for and still do some work for on my own went from 8 employees when i started to 320 today in multiple states .

they broke over 100 million in sales last year , all owned by 1 man .. every company we interface with has seen incredible growth . everyone from our suppliers to lawyers and accountants saw huge increases in business and had to hire people .

they are still hiring like crazy for all their locations . the company sells automation controls , electrical supplies ,pumps , motors , drives and motor controls .

demand in the industry has been insane with experienced employees with a customer following writing their own pay checks based on sales .
I think AI will be the biggest threat to employment and the infrastructure is being developed rapidly. Google will have to make a huge move in this arena to stay competitive as it looks like they are more reliant on ad revenue than before.

As you know, my outlook is generally negative, so maybe this process won't move as fast as I expect it too, but I believe the median date predicted for technological singularity is 2040.

I think people should consider this as realistic when they make their political decisions. Not that anyone talks about this. I'm sure things will end unfavorably, but we'll see.
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Old 02-04-2018, 07:36 AM
 
Location: Texas
5,872 posts, read 8,095,507 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jobster View Post
I think AI will be the biggest threat to employment and the infrastructure is being developed rapidly. Google will have to make a huge move in this arena to stay competitive as it looks like they are more reliant on ad revenue than before.

As you know, my outlook is generally negative, so maybe this process won't move as fast as I expect it too, but I believe the median date predicted for technological singularity is 2040.

I think people should consider this as realistic when they make their political decisions. Not that anyone talks about this. I'm sure things will end unfavorably, but we'll see.
Hmmmm, thinking I just found my new LONG play. 1000 GOOGL contracts.....yes plz.
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Old 02-04-2018, 07:36 AM
 
106,676 posts, read 108,856,202 times
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well people have to shift gears and go where the money is . we were a nation of farmers and miners .

we migrated to where the action was and even with machines doing away with the loads of workers new opportunity attracted workers .

i spent my life shifting gears to where the money was . i started with some basic skills and in an evolution over 40 years kept switching to new related areas with more money potential .

anyone who thinks they can be a buggy whip maker forever will have a hard time and either be out of work or will find they are replaced by a machine that does it better ..
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