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Another auto-investing day and the market is down thus far... I noticed this year a lot more of the auto-investing has managed to land on down days, which is not mysterious given there's been a lot more down days.
well; stop investing , it's your fault when we fall
You are correct, but you're not going to convince him.
it isn't just tightening my figures referred to , it is tightening more than 1% in a year . the debate here was what happens when the fed keeps tightening as in the statement bond yields will go up and bonds will lose money which you hear a lot from the predictors .
when you track the total returns over all but 1 full tightening cycle they are still very good and even that 1 did fine . .bond funds even with tightening cycles have had very few losing years as the good years pay for the bad .
from larry swedroe
Last edited by mathjak107; 04-20-2018 at 02:09 PM..
looks like the whole Syria thing was a PR stunt and nothing more. Trump has said mission accomplished without doing anything much but the markets like those words so the futures are rallying. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump conned everyone by telling Russia beforehand that he was going to send missiles to some predetermined location and to clear that area so that the public can be fooled that he is actively countering Russia when he in fact is colluding with them.
looks like I was mostly right Nothing but a bunch of cons... so now our military advice comes from Russia as well? LOL!
it isn't just tightening my figures referred to , it is tightening more than 1% in a year . the debate here was what happens when the fed keeps tightening as in the statement bond yields will go up and bonds will lose money which you hear a lot from the predictors .
when you track the total returns over all but 1 full tightening cycle they are still very good and even that 1 did fine . .bond funds even with tightening cycles have had very few losing years as the good years pay for the bad .
from larry swedroe
This is relative to an intermediate-term index. The longer the maturity, the more the bond price will fall as rates increase.
Just to be clear, I'm not terribly bearish on bonds, and haven't made any adjustments to my bond funds. Keep in mind, however, I'm a horrible predictor of interest rates :O)
Now, a couple of comments with respect to Swedroe's numbers. First of all, that Barclays index is a little baby kitten, with an average maturity of about four years. Second, keep in mind that the time period starting in 1981 entailed a massive secular decline in interest rates. Any time the rate increases stopped, yields promptly returned onto that downward trend.
Just take the 1984 year as an example. Tightening had started already in the prior year, and the 10-year yield had already gone up about 150 basis points before the new year 1984 was rung in. Yields peaked in May, and re-started their downward trend in the summer. By year's end the yield was just slightly less than at the beginning of 1984. So really, that calendar year does not show the period of rising rates at all. If by chance our year started in May, that table would look very different for 1984.
One way to look at all this, of course, is with a "this too shall pass" attitude. I don't disagree with that, but with the caveat that we must all recognize this time we started from the cellar. The 10-year bottomed out at 1.37%. There is precious little additional decline in rates available to sooth the pain this time. In addition, today's much smaller yields means that the healing process will be slower and take longer than in the past.
keep in mind a total bond fund like fidelity ftbfx is only 5.50 years today in duration . i think GBF is the equal in the above which has a duration of 6.46 years .
gbf= The investment seeks to track the investment results of the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. government/Credit Bond Index
Last edited by mathjak107; 04-20-2018 at 03:31 PM..
Just to be clear, I'm not terribly bearish on bonds, and haven't made any adjustments to my bond funds. Keep in mind, however, I'm a horrible predictor of interest rates :O)
Now, a couple of comments with respect to Swedroe's numbers. First of all, that Barclays index is a little baby kitten, with an average maturity of about four years. Second, keep in mind that the time period starting in 1981 entailed a massive secular decline in interest rates. Any time the rate increases stopped, yields promptly returned onto that downward trend.
Just take the 1984 year as an example. Tightening had started already in the prior year, and the 10-year yield had already gone up about 150 basis points before the new year 1984 was rung in. Yields peaked in May, and re-started their downward trend in the summer. By year's end the yield was just slightly less than at the beginning of 1984. So really, that calendar year does not show the period of rising rates at all. If by chance our year started in May, that table would look very different for 1984.
One way to look at all this, of course, is with a "this too shall pass" attitude. I don't disagree with that, but with the caveat that we must all recognize this time we started from the cellar. The 10-year bottomed out at 1.37%. There is precious little additional decline in rates available to sooth the pain this time. In addition, today's much smaller yields means that the healing process will be slower and take longer than in the past.
Lost $1200 on paper today....thank you aapl for not making your numbers
The writing has been on the wall for years with more expensive iphones and hardly any new features.
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