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We just cross 25k, now within a few days 26k seems on the horizon... This is truly eye popping. I have $100k liquid that I have to invest, I want to buy more S&P500 but this is making me really nervous. It is just going up way way too fast. Blink and it's up a .2 or .3%. Obviously this can't continue, then what exactly happens?
The forecast was 10% up for the year but it's already up almost 3% and it's only been 5 days.. WTF? There are 360 days left.
Last edited by The Villages Guy; 02-25-2018 at 07:31 PM..
Reason: Combined threads into one cohesive topic.
then you ride it out and wait . if you think you are going to time things in the short term good luck .
so if the market crashes 60% tomorrow due to irrational exuberance and takes 10 years to come back to current levels (lost decade such as Japan) then what? How long are you going to wait? 10 years for zero returns? And then another decade to get some profits? So 20 years to make some little money?
Generally I don't advocate timing the markets BUT Investing in a mania is a problem... as Buffet rightfully said Be fearful when others are greedy... right now people are greedy to the power to infinity..
if you are going to run the visions of what if in your head don't invest , long term investments are not for you . there is never a good time .
it can take many years sometimes but you know what ? over typical 30 year accumulation time frames or retirement time frames all the returns end up within 2% of each other doing nothing .
you can try timing things but studies show it is a losers game . i entered the markets right before the crash of 1987 losing almost 30% in one day . today i wouldn't even remember it happened , especially looking at the balance . time makes everything okay , through crashes ,wars and recessions ,.
equities are a continual pattern of higher highs and higher lows as time moves on . .
at the least keep a diversified portfolio and when stocks fall sell bonds and buy more stock .
anyone who has money in the market is in effect buying in each day and they can lose money .
every penny invested is all theirs every day . it just varies each day .
except for taxes , closing out your position each night and buying in again the next day is no different than leaving it . each day is your money at risk of loss , forever .
so buying in today or leaving your money invested is all the same .
when people who want to invest say what if it falls 40% , my answer is perhaps investing is not for you . you will always have these visions in your head .
in fact if we were in 2008 all over again , those who worry about crashing when we are up will not have the nerve to buy when markets are plunging to hell and it looks like there is no bottom .
Last edited by mathjak107; 01-05-2018 at 02:04 PM..
so if the market crashes 60% tomorrow due to irrational exuberance and takes 10 years to come back to current levels (lost decade such as Japan) then what? How long are you going to wait? 10 years for zero returns? And then another decade to get some profits? So 20 years to make some little money?
Generally I don't advocate timing the markets BUT Investing in a mania is a problem... as Buffet rightfully said Be fearful when others are greedy... right now people are greedy to the power to infinity..
what are your returns on investments? 1 year, 3 year, 5 year, 10 year, life?
im just curious to know how you have been doing since you seem to have it all figured out.
i think we are headed lower by the end of feb . trees never grow to the sky . not sure how low or how long but i think the markets got their expectations way to high .
markets typically over do things both going up and going down . i am not a market timer but i do have my comfort range , which at this time is at the lower end of my range . i brought it down a bit over the last few weeks from 50 to 40% equities , but i am retired and live off of it .
Last edited by mathjak107; 01-05-2018 at 03:06 PM..
We just cross 25k, now within a few days 26k seems on the horizon... This is truly eye popping. I have $100k liquid that I have to invest, I want to buy more S&P500 but this is making me really nervous.
That's a strong hint that you should reconsider your overall asset allocation rather than just putting all $100k into the S&P 500. Don't take on more volatility and risk than you can stomach!
That's a strong hint that you should reconsider your overall asset allocation rather than just putting all $100k into the S&P 500. Don't take on more volatility and risk than you can stomach!
There are no other assets to invest in, the other stuff is just garbage. Bonds returning 3%? I can get that in a savings account for zero risk. Ally is giving 1.6% now and that is going to rise with the Fed increasing interest rates during the course of the year. Why am I going to take that kind of risk to get 3%? As I said I expect at least 15% annually for the kind of risk we are talking about here. Most bonds are junk status if you take into account their near zero percent returns while undertaking moderate risk.
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This is truly eye popping. I have $100k liquid that I have to invest, I want to buy more S&P500 but this is making me really nervous. It is just going up way way too fast. Blink and it's up a .2 or .3%. Obviously this can't continue, then what exactly happens?
