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Old 05-09-2019, 03:11 AM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
31,340 posts, read 14,270,262 times
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Does anyone else think that the market has topped out?
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Old 05-09-2019, 03:14 AM
 
Location: East Coast of the United States
27,575 posts, read 28,673,621 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerGeek40 View Post
Does anyone else think that the market has topped out?
That is like saying America has topped out.

Don’t believe the propaganda.

Please see my thread:

https://www.city-data.com/forum/polit...s-sources.html

But avoid discussing it here.
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Old 05-09-2019, 03:37 AM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
31,340 posts, read 14,270,262 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigCityDreamer View Post
That is like saying America has topped out.

Don’t believe the propaganda.

Please see my thread:

https://www.city-data.com/forum/polit...s-sources.html

But avoid discussing it here.
I've definitely noticed propaganda in the news. How could you not?
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Old 05-09-2019, 03:45 AM
 
Location: East Coast of the United States
27,575 posts, read 28,673,621 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerGeek40 View Post
I've definitely noticed propaganda in the news. How could you not?
Great. Don’t give into it. Try to identify when it is affecting your thinking.

Propaganda definitely affects people’s investing and market behavior. It can make people lose a lot of money, even their life savings.

That is how fat cats on Wall Street regularly take money from small investors.
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Old 05-09-2019, 03:50 AM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
31,340 posts, read 14,270,262 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigCityDreamer View Post
Great. Don’t give into it. Try to identify when it is affecting your thinking.

Propaganda definitely affects people’s investing and market behavior. It can make people lose a lot of money, even their life savings.
OK - we agree that the media is basically full of it.

But as far as the markets -- we are near all time highs on a bull market that has run for 10 years. Trump just talked tariffs again. We're due for a correction. And when we get one it's going to fast and furious.
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Old 05-09-2019, 03:52 AM
 
Location: East Coast of the United States
27,575 posts, read 28,673,621 times
Reputation: 25170
Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerGeek40 View Post
OK - we agree that the media is basically full of it.

But as far as the markets -- we are near all time highs on a bull market that has run for 10 years. Trump just talked tariffs again. We're due for a correction. And when we get one it's going to fast and furious.
Even if there is a market correction, it will go right back up to record highs. Just like it did after the low in December 2018. Just like it always does.

Therefore, just relax and don’t even worry about it.

Don’t even think about it.
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Old 05-09-2019, 03:56 AM
 
Location: East Coast of the United States
27,575 posts, read 28,673,621 times
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By the way, the propaganda in the news today is not just any ordinary, run-of-the-mill propaganda.

It is communist Russia level propaganda. It is dangerous.

Be very careful.
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Old 05-09-2019, 04:06 AM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
31,340 posts, read 14,270,262 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigCityDreamer View Post
Even if there is a market correction, it will go right back up to record highs. Just like it did after the low in December 2018. Just like it always does.

Therefore, just relax and don’t even worry about it.

Don’t even think about it.
I've got half of my retirement fund in government securities --- I've already taken action. I'm not relying on the advise of financial planners who say, trust us, and just keep contributing. I saw what happened in 2008 and if it happens again, and there's no bailout that allows the market to rebound, I'm not going to be able to retire at a decent age. I'm giving up some gains in exchange for downside protection, and would suggest anyone else who wants to retire within 10 years, do the same.
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Old 05-09-2019, 04:20 AM
 
106,691 posts, read 108,856,202 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerGeek40 View Post
I've got half of my retirement fund in government securities --- I've already taken action. I'm not relying on the advise of financial planners who say, trust us, and just keep contributing. I saw what happened in 2008 and if it happens again, and there's no bailout that allows the market to rebound, I'm not going to be able to retire at a decent age. I'm giving up some gains in exchange for downside protection, and would suggest anyone else who wants to retire within 10 years, do the same.
i run 40%-50% equities and just have gold and long term treasuries flying fighter cover .. no reason to bail out .. currently i am at 40% and quite comfortable with the mix . typically the gold and treasuries offset much of these daily swings .

jrkliny and i have been tracking a few different models for almost a year now where we compare a 60/40 to the more defensive models over good and bad markets ..

the 100k we started with is now :

60/40 is now 99,782..

the golden butterfly with 40% equities is at 99,589 but with far less volatility then 60/40

the 25% equities permanent portfolio is 102,261 ...that can be like watching paint dry most of the time

so despite these huge run ups , winning is still about not losing ..then you need a lot less in gains and volatility to get back ..

Last edited by mathjak107; 05-09-2019 at 04:33 AM..
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Old 05-09-2019, 07:13 AM
 
Location: SoCal
20,160 posts, read 12,763,707 times
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Interesting, I have 25% in stocks. I didn’t know that it’s the permanent portfolio. What else is in there.
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